NEW YORK, March 14, 2026, 14:18 EDT
Natural gas futures in the U.S. slipped Friday. April Henry Hub contracts, the standard benchmark, wrapped up the day at $3.131 per mmBtu—down a little more than 3%. Forecasters are calling for mostly mild conditions through March, which has traders anticipating softer late-season heating demand.
The retreat stands out, given that the U.S. market remains shaped mostly by internal factors—supply, storage, and the weather—rather than the more acute LNG crunch seen overseas. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s March Short-Term Energy Outlook, gas prices in Europe and Asia have climbed due to slower LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. But in the U.S., prices look set to stay largely insulated. Export terminals were already pushing capacity before the disruption, so there’s little slack left to boost shipments abroad for now.
The EIA now sees Henry Hub prices averaging around $3.76 per mmBtu in 2026, down from last month’s $4.31 call. For 2027, the agency is looking at $3.85. Unusually warm weather in February left inventories higher than expected, which has pulled the price outlook lower for the near term.
Storage helps buffer supply. As of the week ended March 6, working gas in storage hit 1,848 billion cubic feet—141 bcf higher than the same point last year, though still 17 bcf under the five-year norm. The EIA projects inventories finishing the winter close to 1,840 bcf.
Overseas supply remains under pressure. LNG for April delivery into Northeast Asia slipped to $19.50 per mmBtu, down from $22.50 the previous week. But JERA’s CEO, Yukio Kani, dismissed hopes that Middle East disruptions would resolve in a matter of weeks as “far too optimistic.” Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel, by contrast, described the ongoing volatility as “very short-term” and said he sees “very stable liquefaction prices” in the longer run. Reuters
Europe remains squeezed. On Friday, Dutch TTF front-month gas—the regional price benchmark—traded at roughly 50.1 euros per megawatt hour. Earlier in the week, Reuters noted the contract had eased back near 50 euros after jumping close to 65.5 euros on conflict headlines. Still, prices are sitting about 50% higher than February as storage levels across the region linger around 27% of capacity, the lowest for this time since 2022.
Signals out of the U.S. continue to suggest ample supply. Gas rigs ticked up by one this week to 133, according to Baker Hughes, with the Haynesville figure now at its highest since May 2023. The EIA’s March report projects Lower 48 marketed gas production to average 118 bcf/d in 2026, rising to 121 bcf/d in 2027.
The downside risk for prices remains murky. NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast points to lingering below-normal temperatures in the Northeast, even while swaths of the West and central U.S. trend warmer. On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe is still staring at big storage deficits after burning through unusually large volumes. Another cold snap in late March or an unexpected drop in LNG flows could flip the supply balance quickly.
The government’s yearly projection remains notably higher than the front-month market, at least for the moment. Friday settled at $3.131, trailing the EIA’s 2026 average of about $3.76. That points to the agency holding out for stronger prices ahead, despite trimming its outlook again.
