NEW YORK, March 28, 2026, 2:10 PM (EDT)
U.S. natural gas ticked up this week, with Henry Hub May futures last at $3.035 per million British thermal units—about a 2.1% move up from $2.973 a week ago, according to CME data. But even with the bump, U.S. prices stayed well under global benchmarks across an LNG sector still feeling the squeeze. CME Group
The gap is catching eyes now: Europe’s Dutch TTF gas benchmark hovered just under $17 per mmBtu midweek, with Asia’s Japan-Korea Marker at about $21. Meanwhile, U.S. gas remained close to $3. For American traders, this price spread keeps export demand at the forefront, especially as Europe looks to secure cargoes and rebuild storage ahead of winter. Reuters
Support on the home front was tied to storage numbers. According to the Energy Information Administration, utilities withdrew 54 billion cubic feet from storage for the week ending March 20. That brought inventories to 1,829 bcf—up 5.2% from the same period last year and 0.8% higher than the five-year average. Energy Information Administration
Export demand held up. Cheniere reported that Train 5 at its Corpus Christi expansion hit full capacity on Friday, with feedgas to the site hovering around 2.5 billion cubic feet per day. CEO Jack Fusco noted Asian buyers want additional U.S. cargoes, adding, “We are trying to do whatever we can do.” Reuters
The tightness remains largely offshore. S&P Global Energy, ICIS, Kpler, and Rystad Energy have all slashed their 2026 LNG supply forecasts—some by as much as 35 million metric tons—citing plant damage in Qatar and turbulence near the Strait of Hormuz. “In the near term, the market rebalances primarily through higher prices and demand destruction in South Asia,” according to Kpler’s Laura Page. Reuters
Over the weekend, new risk hit the market. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle knocked out operations at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants and kept disruptions going at Woodside’s North West Shelf site. With flexible supply already tight, Australian outages are piling up. Delays are especially significant because Australia overtook Qatar as the second-largest LNG exporter after this month’s shutdown in Qatar. Reuters
The price divergence is starting to pick favorites among companies. Venture Global stands out, analysts say, thanks to selling more Plaquemines cargoes on the spot market, instead of locking everything into long-term deals—unlike some competitors still stuck to contract rates. Or as Bernstein’s Irene Himona summed it up: “If you want an extra ship of U.S. gas in Berlin, you have to bid high enough to divert it away from Tokyo.” Reuters
A straight-up rally remains a tall order. Baker Hughes puts the gas rig count at 127 for the week—lowest since late January—but the EIA still expects U.S. gas production to hit 109.5 billion cubic feet per day by 2026. That’s a signal: domestic supply might keep a lid on Henry Hub if export demand slips. Reuters
Eyes remain fixed on the export pipe for the moment. Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel said his firm is collaborating globally to deliver “critical cargoes” both this month and next, underscoring that buyers continue to chase prompt U.S. LNG even as Henry Hub hovers close to $3. Reuters
