NEW YORK/LONDON — Natural gas traders are ending the week’s mid-December session with a familiar tug-of-war: a winter-sized storage withdrawal and near-record LNG feedgas demand on one side, and softer near-term weather forecasts plus a still-ample U.S. storage cushion on the other.
By early afternoon on Thursday, December 18, natural gas prices had swung sharply from the morning’s highs and slipped back under the psychologically important $4.00 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) level—highlighting how quickly the market is repricing every update to weather models and export flows. Investing.com+2TradingView+2
Natural gas price today at 2:00 PM ET
Around early afternoon in New York, front-month U.S. natural gas futures were trading near $3.93–$3.94/mmBtu, after an overnight/morning rally that pushed prices above $4.20 before sellers returned. Investing.com+1
Key intraday markers seen in widely followed pricing feeds:
- Early afternoon level: about $3.93/mmBtu Investing.com+1
- Day’s range: roughly $3.91 to $4.22/mmBtu Investing.com
- Morning snapshot: Henry Hub-linked pricing screens showed roughly $4.13/mmBtu at about 9:38 a.m. markets.businessinsider.com
The whipsaw fits the pattern of December 2025 trading overall: after topping out in early December, prices have been volatile and trend-sensitive to every shift in temperature expectations. On Investing.com’s continuous contract view, prices moved from $5.289 on Dec. 5 to roughly $3.935 on Dec. 18, a decline of about 26% in less than two weeks. Investing.com
The big catalyst: EIA reports a 167 Bcf storage withdrawal
At 10:30 a.m. ET, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) posted its closely watched weekly storage report, showing working gas in storage fell by 167 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending Dec. 12, 2025. EIA Information Releases+1
The headline details:
- Total working gas:3,579 Bcf EIA Information Releases
- Weekly change:-167 Bcf EIA Information Releases
- Versus last year:61 Bcf lower than the same week in 2024 EIA Information Releases
- Versus 5-year average:32 Bcf above the 2020–2024 average EIA Information Releases
Regionally, the largest withdrawals were concentrated in the Midwest (-64 Bcf) and South Central (-48 Bcf), with meaningful draws also in the East (-46 Bcf)—a clear signature of cold-driven heating demand earlier in the month. EIA Information Releases
Why the market’s reaction was mixed
On paper, a 167 Bcf withdrawal is substantial for mid-December—and Reuters noted it was far larger than the typical five-year withdrawal for the week, reflecting the impact of “extreme cold” on heating demand. TradingView
But two nuances blunted the bullish impact:
- Expectations were already elevated. A Reuters poll cited a forecast around 169 Bcf, while other market calendars showed estimates nearer -176 Bcf—so the report was “big,” but not a shock. TradingView+1
- Storage remains near-normal. EIA’s own summary emphasizes that total inventories are within the five-year range and still slightly above the five-year average. EIA Information Releases
That combination helps explain the day’s price action: an initial supportive read, followed by renewed selling as traders refocused on the next two weeks of weather.
Forecasts: warmer U.S. outlook into early January pulls demand down
The dominant driver into year-end remains weather—and on Dec. 18, the near-term U.S. outlook tilted warmer.
In Reuters reporting carried by TradingView, meteorologists projected weather across the United States would stay mostly warmer than normal through Jan. 2, limiting heating demand versus seasonal norms. TradingView
LSEG’s model-based demand view in that same report shows a steep expected drop:
- Total U.S. demand (incl. exports): from about 144.8 Bcf/day this week to 128.8 Bcf/day next week TradingView
That kind of week-on-week demand slide can overwhelm even a large storage draw—especially when the market is already in “winter volatility mode,” repricing each model run.
The subtext: the market is trading the “January question”
With December’s cold bursts already in the data, the next pricing debate is whether late December and early January deliver a sustained cold pattern (bullish) or a series of warmer breaks (bearish). Reuters explicitly flagged “milder weather forecasts” as a demand-reducing force in the coming weeks. TradingView
LNG and exports: near-record feedgas supports the floor
Even as domestic weather forecasts softened, one pillar continues to keep U.S. gas from collapsing: LNG export demand.
Reuters reported average gas flows to the eight major U.S. LNG export plants rose to about 18.5 Bcf/day so far in December, above the prior month’s record pace (about 18.2 Bcf/day in November). TradingView
That is a crucial support line for U.S. prices because it:
- locks in steady baseload demand,
- reduces the volume available for storage refill during warm spells, and
- links Henry Hub more tightly to global gas pricing.
The U.S. remains the world’s largest LNG exporter, a structural shift that keeps domestic fundamentals tied to overseas balances. TradingView
Europe: TTF steadies as colder demand rises, but supply looks comfortable
Across the Atlantic, European natural gas prices were firmer on Thursday morning, but traders continued to describe a market that is well supplied—even with colder weather creeping back into forecasts.
Reuters-reported pricing showed:
- Dutch TTF front-month: about €27.57/MWh (around $9.48/mmBtu) by 0907 GMT, up modestly on the day Asharq Al-Awsat
- Analysts expected sideways trade, arguing rising cold-driven demand could be met by pipeline supply and LNG arrivals Asharq Al-Awsat
Europe’s near-term forecast
LSEG meteorologist Georg Mueller said conditions look “mostly dry but slowly colder,” with below-normal temperatures late next week—and that the pattern “will likely last into early January.” Asharq Al-Awsat
The key European fundamentals traders are watching
- Storage: EU gas storage sites were around 68.75% full, below 77.5% at the same time last year—tight enough to matter, but not a crisis signal by itself. Asharq Al-Awsat
- Pipeline supply: Norwegian pipeline nominations to Europe hit 348.8 million cubic meters/day Wednesday (highest since Aug. 2024) and remained near that level Thursday. Asharq Al-Awsat
- Positioning risk: ING noted speculators have built their largest net-short position since early 2020, which can amplify volatility if a surprise disruption or demand spike forces rapid short-covering. Asharq Al-Awsat
Engie EnergyScan summarized the mood bluntly: prices may have “exhausted” further downside potential, but a “comfortable LNG balance” is also preventing a meaningful rebound. Asharq Al-Awsat
Freeport LNG: a small operational signal with outsized market impact
One of the most closely watched day-to-day variables in the global gas market is whether big LNG terminals are running smoothly.
In Europe-focused Reuters reporting, Freeport LNG—one of the key U.S. export plants—was “on track to take in more gas” Wednesday, a sign that one of its three liquefaction trains had returned to service after shutting down Tuesday. Asharq Al-Awsat
For natural gas traders, this matters immediately because Freeport feedgas demand can move Henry Hub balances at the margin—especially when the U.S. supply/demand picture is finely balanced by weather.
Global benchmarks: Europe and Asia remain soft, weighing sentiment
Despite Thursday’s European uptick, global benchmark pricing remains subdued compared with last winter.
Reuters data cited in the U.S. market report put global markers roughly here on the day:
- Henry Hub: about $4.12/mmBtu TradingView
- TTF Europe: about $9.36/mmBtu TradingView
- JKM Asia: about $9.54/mmBtu TradingView
Reuters attributed the recent global softness to a slow start to winter heating demand and to market “hopes” that Ukraine peace talks could eventually ease sanctions and allow more Russian gas to reach markets in the future. TradingView
Longer-term LNG outlook: mega-projects and demand uncertainty are back in focus
Beyond the day’s storage and weather headlines, Dec. 18 also brought news and analysis that shape the multi-year natural gas narrative: LNG growth is still coming, but the market is increasingly debating whether the next wave arrives into a glut.
Woodside’s CEO transition highlights LNG oversupply risk
Reuters reported that Woodside’s next CEO will inherit a high-stakes LNG buildout—especially the $17.5 billion Louisiana LNG project (acquired via Tellurian), with analysts warning about cost, construction, and the challenge of finding buyers as the market sees “first signs” of a future supply glut. Reuters
Woodside is also seeking equity partners (targeting about 50% ownership) and lining up long-term offtakers—exactly the kind of commercial work that becomes harder when buyers believe more supply is coming. Reuters
Asia’s U.S. LNG imports fell in 2025 amid trade tensions
In a separate Reuters analysis, Asia’s LNG imports from the United States were reported to have dropped to 19.08 million tons in 2025, down from 29.78 million tons in 2024, with China’s U.S. LNG intake plunging sharply. Reuters
That matters for global gas pricing because it underscores a key reality of LNG: trade flows can shift quickly due to politics, contracts, and price differentials—adding another layer of uncertainty for producers planning multi-billion-dollar export terminals.
What to watch next for natural gas prices
As traders digest Thursday’s EIA report and the afternoon selloff, the next set of catalysts is already queued up:
- Weather model revisions through Christmas and early January: any turn toward sustained cold can quickly reprice the curve. TradingView+1
- LNG feedgas flows and plant reliability: especially Freeport LNG’s operating pace after the midweek disruption. TradingView+1
- Production trends: Reuters/LSEG data showed Lower 48 output slightly easing from record highs—small changes can matter when demand is weather-driven. TradingView
- Next storage release: EIA’s next weekly storage report is scheduled for Dec. 24. EIA Information Releases
- Europe’s balance: watch storage draw rates, Norwegian flows, and whether heavy speculative short positioning creates sharper moves on surprises. Asharq Al-Awsat+1
