Natural gas prices are starting Thursday, December 18, 2025, on a firmer footing—helped by robust LNG export demand and a rebound after earlier weather-driven selling—while Europe’s benchmark contracts are nudging higher as traders weigh a colder near-term outlook against still-comfortable supply.
In the U.S., the front-month NYMEX contract (January 2026) is trading around $4.09 per MMBtu, up roughly 1.7% on the day in early trading. [1]
In Europe, the Dutch TTF month-ahead benchmark is near €27.57 per MWh, up on the session as the market reacts to shifting weather and supply signals.
Below is a full, news-driven breakdown of what’s moving natural gas today, plus the most-watched forecasts heading into the next major catalysts.
Natural gas price today: the key levels traders are watching
United States: Henry Hub/NYMEX (front month)
- NYMEX January 2026 futures are around $4.09/MMBtu in early Thursday trade. [2]
- The contract settled Wednesday at $4.024/MMBtu, rebounding after recent weakness tied to milder weather expectations. [3]
This matters because the January contract sets the tone for U.S. winter pricing and, increasingly, for global gas sentiment—given the U.S. role as the world’s largest LNG exporter.
Europe: Dutch TTF and U.K. gas
- Dutch TTF month-ahead: about €27.57/MWh, higher on the day.
- U.K. day-ahead (a key short-term demand barometer): also firmer on the session.
European gas remains highly reactive to near-term weather (temperature and wind), LNG cargo arrivals, and Norwegian pipeline flows—especially in winter.
Global LNG: Asia’s JKM benchmark
The LNG “paper market” is also reflecting a softer global pricing environment versus last winter. On the derivatives side, the JKM (Japan-Korea Marker) continuous futures price is around $9.535/MMBtu. [4]
Reuters also described global benchmark gas pricing hovering around the $9/MMBtu area recently, reflecting a mild-start winter backdrop. [5]
What’s driving U.S. natural gas prices on Dec. 18
1) LNG export demand is still doing heavy lifting
The clearest bullish pillar right now is LNG feedgas: flows to the major U.S. LNG export facilities have been running near record levels this month. Reuters reported average feedgas to the big U.S. LNG plants at roughly 18.6 bcfd so far in December, above November’s prior record pace. [6]
Why it matters: when LNG terminals pull more gas, they effectively “export” domestic supply-demand tightness. Even if U.S. heating demand is muted by warm weather, LNG can keep the balance from loosening too far.
2) Output is near records—keeping the upside in check
The counterweight is supply. Reuters cited Lower-48 production averaging roughly 109.5 bcfd so far in December, near November’s record levels. [7]
This is why rallies have struggled to become runaway moves: a high production base makes it easier for the market to refill storage quickly when temperatures soften.
3) Weather forecasts still lean “warmer than normal” into early January
Weather is the swing variable for winter gas. Meteorologists cited in market coverage expect much of the U.S. to stay mostly warmer than normal through around January 1, which caps heating load and reduces urgency buying. [8]
The result is a market that’s being pulled in two directions:
- Bullish: LNG demand + periodic cold shots
- Bearish: warm-leaning outlooks + near-record production
4) The storage report is the next immediate volatility event—today
At the time of writing (10:43 UTC), the market is still positioned ahead of the weekly U.S. storage update.
EIA’s weekly natural gas storage report is normally released Thursdays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. [9]
EIA’s official information release site also shows the next storage report is scheduled for Dec. 18, 2025. [10]
What are expectations? Forecasts vary by shop and model, but the market is broadly braced for a large withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 12. Reuters coverage pointed to an expected draw around 169 Bcf, versus 96 Bcf (five-year average) and 134 Bcf (year-ago) for the comparable week—highlighting how the early-December cold has already left a mark. [11]
Other market commentary has floated even bigger draw expectations (for example, one industry note referenced an estimate around 185 Bcf). [12]
If the withdrawal prints larger than expected, it typically supports prices; a smaller draw can quickly weigh on the screen—especially in a warm-forecast regime.
5) Freeport LNG reliability is back on the radar
Operational headlines at major export terminals can move gas fast. Reuters noted Freeport LNG (Texas) was taking in more gas again mid-week—suggesting one liquefaction train had returned after a brief disruption. [13]
In today’s market, even short-lived LNG outages matter because feedgas has become such a large and steady slice of total demand.
Europe gas prices today: colder signals vs. strong supply
European benchmarks are firmer, but the story is nuanced: the market is reacting to near-term weather changes without seeing a clear “winter panic” setup.
Reuters reporting showed:
- TTF month-ahead rising to around €27.57/MWh on the session
- Price support linked to a slightly colder near-term forecast
At the same time, supply-side conditions are preventing a bigger surge. Reuters highlighted a combination of:
- Stronger Norwegian pipeline nominations into Northwest Europe
- Stable deliveries and LNG availability signals
One additional factor traders are watching closely: European storage is lower than last year, even if it isn’t at crisis levels. Reuters cited European gas storage around 68.75% full, compared with roughly 77.5% a year earlier.
That storage gap can become more important if late-December/January turns colder-than-normal across key demand hubs.
The Russia/EU policy shift that could reshape the medium-term gas outlook
One of the biggest strategic developments influencing European gas risk premiums is the push to reduce—then end—Russian gas imports.
Reuters reported EU lawmakers backed measures to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027, with specific timelines that would restrict both pipeline gas and LNG imports under the plan. [14]
Even if the market impact today is limited (because short-term pricing is driven by weather and LNG flows), policy changes like this can influence:
- contract structures,
- storage strategy,
- and long-term LNG procurement decisions—especially in Europe’s post-2022 energy system.
Global LNG and trade flows: Asia demand looks softer, complicating the bullish case
A key “big picture” point for global gas: the world is not currently priced like it’s short of LNG.
Reuters described global benchmark pricing around multi-month lows recently, with gas in Europe and Asia trading around the $9/MMBtu area—helped by a slow-start winter and shifting geopolitical expectations. [15]
Meanwhile, a separate Reuters analysis on Dec. 18 showed Asia’s imports of U.S. LNG fell in 2025, with U.S. LNG shipments to Asia dropping materially year-on-year. [16]
Why that matters for “natural gas price today”:
- If Asia pulls fewer U.S. cargoes, more LNG may compete for Europe (or other markets).
- More competition for destination markets can keep global spot LNG and related gas benchmarks from lifting sharply—unless weather or outages force a tighter balance.
Market structure update: Europe’s gas benchmarks are becoming more “financialized”
Another Dec. 2025 development worth noting is how much trading volumes have grown in Europe’s benchmark contracts.
Reuters reported ICE recorded record volumes in European TTF gas contracts (futures and options) in 2025, and noted record activity in JKM LNG futures as well—underscoring how LNG-linked pricing is increasingly central to gas risk management. [17]
This matters because higher liquidity can amplify—and sometimes accelerate—price moves when weather models flip or supply headlines hit.
Forecasts: where prices could head next (and what the EIA expects)
The EIA’s winter and 2026 outlook (U.S.)
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook materials, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Henry Hub pricing to stay elevated through the winter relative to last year, then moderate as production rises.
Key EIA points include:
- Henry Hub spot price averaging around $4.30/MMBtu for the winter heating season (Nov–Mar) in EIA’s forecast. [18]
- EIA assumed December would run above the 10-year average in heating degree days, lifting space-heating consumption expectations. [19]
- EIA projected higher withdrawals for December overall and expected end-of-winter inventories around 2,000 Bcf(still above the five-year average in its forecast). [20]
- For the full year, EIA’s table shows a 2026 Henry Hub price projection around $4.01/MMBtu, alongside higher U.S. production and rising LNG exports in 2026. [21]
The key takeaway: even with very strong LNG exports, EIA’s base case still leans on rising supply to keep prices from spiraling higher once winter passes—unless weather turns materially colder than expected or supply disruptions emerge.
What to watch next: today’s catalysts and the next 7–14 days
If you’re following natural gas prices today, these are the most important near-term swing factors:
- EIA storage report (Dec 18)
Scheduled for the regular Thursday release window (10:30 a.m. ET). A surprise relative to expectations can move prices quickly. [22] - Weather model updates (U.S. + Europe)
U.S. warmth into early January is a headwind, but forecasts can shift fast—especially around late-December pattern changes. [23] - LNG feedgas levels and terminal operations (Freeport and others)
With LNG feedgas near record levels, any operational dip (or surge) can matter more than it did a few years ago. [24] - European storage trajectory and policy headlines
Storage is lower than last year and the EU is simultaneously pushing to structurally reduce Russian gas exposure—both of which can influence risk premiums if winter demand accelerates. [25]
Bottom line
Natural gas prices today reflect a market trying to balance two powerful forces:
- Demand support from LNG exports and periodic cold-driven withdrawals
- Supply comfort from near-record U.S. output and a weather outlook that still leans mild into early January
That push-pull is keeping U.S. front-month futures around the $4/MMBtu area for now, while Europe’s TTF remains sensitive to short-term weather and storage math rather than showing outright panic pricing. [26]
References
1. www.barchart.com, 2. www.barchart.com, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. ir.eia.gov, 10. ir.eia.gov, 11. www.tradingview.com, 12. www.spragueenergy.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.eia.gov, 19. www.eia.gov, 20. www.eia.gov, 21. www.eia.gov, 22. ir.eia.gov, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.barchart.com
