Updated: Dec. 22, 2025 | 1:43 p.m. ET (18:43 UTC)
Natural gas is heading into the Christmas week with a familiar winter tug-of-war: weather risk vs. supply reality. In U.S. trading on Monday, front-month NYMEX natural gas futures (Henry Hub) weakened as record production and a warmer-than-normal forecast into early January pressured the market—even as LNG export demand remains near record levels.
By late morning, Reuters reported the January contract down nearly 2% at $3.901/MMBtu. By early afternoon, prices were still under pressure, with the day’s range showing how quickly sentiment has shifted: high near $4.14 and low near $3.80. Investing
Outside the U.S., Europe’s benchmark gas market eased as well despite colder-weather expectations, supported by ample Norwegian pipeline supply and LNG arrivals, while policy and geopolitical developments—from Australia’s new gas reservation plan to Russia’s evolving gas flows—added fresh layers to the global natural gas narrative. TradingView
Natural gas price today: Henry Hub retreats as the weather premium fades
The U.S. market’s message on Dec. 22 is blunt: supply is winning the near-term argument.
Reuters reported that January NYMEX natural gas futures fell 1.9% to $3.901/MMBtu at 9:40 a.m. ET, citing two drivers: stronger production and warmer weather forecasts that could reduce heating demand.
Intraday pricing underscored the shift in tone. Natural gas futures showed:
- Open: $4.065
- High: $4.140
- Low: $3.800
- Last/price shown during the session: $3.862
- Daily change: -5.02% Investing
That combination—opening above $4 and then sliding toward the high-$3.80s—signals traders are rapidly marking down late-December heating demand expectations.
Supply is the headline: U.S. production hits a December record
The supply side is doing what it has done repeatedly this year: show up bigger than expected.
According to Reuters reporting carried by Baird Maritime, average Lower 48 output climbed to a record 109.9 Bcf/d so far in December, topping November’s prior monthly record. An analyst quoted in that report said production has “surprised” the market—an important point because winter pricing can be extremely sensitive to whether output is merely “high” or truly “record-breaking.”
This production strength helps explain why natural gas can weaken even in the heart of winter: the market is increasingly confident that supply can absorb cold snaps, at least unless the weather turns meaningfully colder for longer.
Forecasts: warmer-than-normal through early January, but winter risk isn’t gone
Weather remains the swing factor—and the current setup is pushing prices lower.
Meteorologists cited in Reuters reporting expected mostly warmer-than-normal conditions through Jan. 6, which would typically reduce the volume of gas needed for heating compared with seasonal norms.
Still, broader winter forecasts are not uniformly bearish. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Short-Term Energy Outlook assumptions and analysis, noted:
- December heating demand (heating degree days) assumed 8% above the 10-year average
- A forecast that residential and commercial natural gas consumption would be 6% higher in December than the prior month’s forecast
- An expectation for December storage withdrawals of about 580 Bcf and end-of-winter inventories around 2,000 Bcf U.S. Energy Information Administration
The takeaway: near-term model warmth is pressuring prices now, but the market remains exposed to sudden cold revisions, especially as liquidity thins around the holiday period.
LNG exports: demand stays strong and globally connected
If there’s a stabilizing force under U.S. prices, it’s LNG.
Reuters reporting cited average flows to eight large U.S. LNG export plants at 18.5 Bcf/d so far this month, up from a prior record monthly average of 18.2 Bcf/d in November.
That matters because LNG has increasingly turned Henry Hub into a globally linked gas benchmark: when export terminals run hard, domestic supply must cover both U.S. weather-driven demand and international pull.
Reuters also noted that Lower 48 demand (including exports) was projected to rise from 127.5 Bcf/d this week to 133.3 Bcf/d over the next two weeks, suggesting that—even with warmth—total call on gas remains substantial.
In other words: warmth can soften heating demand, but LNG and power-sector dynamics can offset part of that loss, keeping the market from collapsing unless weather turns decisively bearish.
Europe gas prices today: TTF eases despite colder-weather expectations
Europe’s gas market also leaned softer on Dec. 22, reflecting a similar theme: comfortable supply vs. demand uncertainty.
Reuters reported that Dutch and British wholesale prices edged lower in thin pre-holiday trade. The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month was down 0.25 euros to 27.95 euros/MWh (about $9.61/mmBtu) by late morning in Europe. TradingView
Key European markers in the same report:
- Dutch Feb contract: 27.70 euros/MWh (down 0.18) TradingView
- UK day-ahead: 72.25 pence/therm (down 1.00) TradingView
Reuters also cited Gas Infrastructure Europe data showing EU storage 67.24% full—a level that keeps traders attentive because winter can tighten balances quickly if the weather turns colder or if supply disruptions emerge. TradingView
Notably, an Engie EnergyScan note described market participants as being in a “wait-and-see” stance—bearish fundamentals now, but awareness that risks (including on U.S. supply) could flip sentiment if prices fall too far. TradingView
Asia LNG and global pricing signals: softness continues in the spot market
While Monday did not bring a new weekly Asia spot LNG assessment from Reuters, the latest widely cited market snapshot shows continued softness in Northeast Asian spot LNG pricing.
A Reuters-linked report published by Business Recorder said the average LNG price for February delivery into Northeast Asia was about $9.50/mmBtu, the lowest since April 2024, driven by weak demand and ample supply. Business Recorder
For global natural gas, that softer Asia spot signal often matters because it influences where marginal LNG cargoes flow—toward Europe or Asia—and helps shape the “floor” and “ceiling” for TTF and JKM-linked pricing.
Australia policy shock: gas reservation plan targets domestic supply and prices
One of the biggest policy headlines affecting global LNG sentiment today is Australia’s move toward a national gas reservation approach.
Australia’s ABC reported that gas producers on the east coast will need to reserve between 15% and 25% of gas for domestic use under a scheme that starts in 2027 but applies to new contracts entered into from Dec. 22, 2025. ABC
The Guardian characterized the policy as “historic,” aimed at pushing down domestic energy prices by ensuring more supply remains available locally. The Guardian Argus added that the measure would apply to three LNG projects and could limit spot sales, reinforcing the idea that policy can reshape LNG availability even years before implementation. Argus Media
For global markets, the signal is clear: governments are increasingly willing to intervene in gas/LNG systems when affordability and security-of-supply become politically sensitive.
Geopolitics: Russia’s gas pivot to China and sanctioned LNG cargoes
Two Russia-related natural gas developments also landed on Dec. 22 and are worth watching for 2026–2027 supply dynamics.
Russia-to-China pipeline flows
Reuters reported that Russia’s pipeline gas exports to China via Power of Siberia were expected to rise about 25% in 2025 to ~38.6–38.7 bcm, exceeding the pipeline’s planned annual capacity of 38 bcm. Reuters
The same report noted that revenue from gas exports to China is expected to be 30%–40% lower than the value of the former European market over 2025–2028, highlighting that Russia’s “pivot” is significant in volumes but not necessarily a full financial replacement. Reuters
Sanctions-era LNG logistics
Reuters also reported that an LNG tanker, Kunpeng, loaded cargo from Russia’s Portovaya LNG terminal—an installation under Western sanctions—after arriving Dec. 18 and departing Dec. 21, based on ship-tracking and analytics data. Reuters
For traders, the relevance is twofold:
- Physical molecules still move even under sanctions pressure, via shifting logistics and counterparties.
- Any tightening of enforcement—or new restrictions—can reprice risk in LNG flows, particularly during winter.
What to watch next: the catalysts that can move natural gas this holiday week
With liquidity thinning into Christmas, natural gas often reacts more sharply to incremental changes. Here are the main market catalysts to track from here:
- Weather model revisions (U.S. and Europe): Warmth through early January is bearish, but sudden cold shifts can re-inflate the “weather premium.” TradingView
- Production durability: Record output is the market’s anchor; any freeze-offs or operational issues could quickly matter.
- LNG feedgas levels: Near-record flows are a core support; outages or maintenance can change balances fast.
- European storage and procurement pace: Storage is lower than recent years, and that can push Europe toward more LNG buying if cold intensifies. TradingView
- Australia’s policy consultations: Details on implementation could influence long-dated LNG expectations. ABC
- Geopolitical and sanctions enforcement: Russian pipeline decisions and LNG shipping workarounds remain a structural wildcard.
Bottom line
As of 1:43 p.m. ET on Dec. 22, 2025, natural gas is trading like a market that believes supply is plentiful and late-December cold risk has eased, at least for now. Record U.S. production and warmer forecasts are pushing Henry Hub lower, even while LNG export demand remains exceptionally strong.
Globally, Europe is seeing prices edge down on strong supply, and Australia’s reservation policy adds a long-range political dimension to LNG availability. Meanwhile, Russia’s evolving gas flows—both by pipeline and via sanctioned LNG logistics—continue to shape risk sentiment across the broader gas complex.
