Natural gas markets are ending the year in classic winter fashion: price swings driven less by what’s happening today than by what weather models might show next week.
On Tuesday, December 23, U.S. Henry Hub futures rebounded from recent weakness as record LNG export demand and a higher near-term consumption outlook helped offset a major bearish force—forecasts calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures into early January. [1]
Across the Atlantic, European benchmark prices moved the other direction. Dutch and British gas contracts slipped as traders digested weather forecasts pointing to a quicker end to a cold spell and weighed still-stable supply and LNG availability into January. [2]
Below is a complete, publication-ready rundown of the key news, forecasts, and market drivers shaping natural gas today.
Natural gas price check: Henry Hub rises above $4 while Europe drifts lower
U.S. (Henry Hub / NYMEX front month)
- In early New York trading, the front-month contract traded around $4.10/MMBtu (+~3%), according to WSJ market data. [3]
- Reuters reporting cited the NYMEX January contract up about 4% to $4.105/MMBtu by 8:59 a.m. ET. [4]
- Later in the session, Markets Insider showed Henry Hub around $4.14/MMBtu, with an intraday range roughly $3.94–$4.17. [5]
- FT market data later showed Henry Hub around $4.31/MMBtu (data delayed at least 15 minutes) by 18:30 GMT. [6]
Europe (TTF / U.K. front month)
- Dutch TTF front-month gas was €27.36/MWh (down €0.41) by 10:05 GMT, while U.K. front-month gas was 72.00 pence/therm (down 1.55 pence), according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. [7]
Asia (JKM as a global LNG marker)
- JKM futures were trading around $9.63/MMBtu on Investing.com’s JKM futures page (useful as a reference point for Northeast Asia LNG pricing). [8]
What’s driving U.S. natural gas today: LNG exports are doing the heavy lifting
1) LNG feedgas demand hits new records
The most important bullish headline in today’s U.S. market is straightforward: LNG export terminals are pulling record volumes of natural gas from the U.S. grid.
Reuters reporting cited:
- Average flows to the eight major U.S. LNG export plants at 18.5 Bcf/d so far in December, above November’s record. [9]
- Daily feedgas on Tuesday tracking about 18.6 Bcf/d, with higher intake at facilities including Cameron LNG (Louisiana), Freeport LNG (Texas), and Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass (Louisiana). [10]
In other words, even when domestic weather turns less supportive, export pull is creating a floor under demand—and traders are reacting.
2) Demand forecasts jump for the next two weeks
Reuters also cited LSEG projections showing average demand across the Lower 48 (including exports) rising from about 127.9 Bcf/d this week to 136.0 Bcf/d over the next two weeks—an upward revision versus Monday’s outlook. [11]
That forecast shift matters because winter gas pricing is often determined at the margin: a few Bcf/d up or down can translate into sharp moves in futures when storage and weather risks are priced in.
3) But the weather headline remains bearish—at least for the next 10–14 days
Even with stronger LNG flows, the market is still fighting the same near-term problem: mild temperature outlooks reduce heating demand.
Reuters cited meteorologists calling for the U.S. to remain mostly warmer than normal through January 7, keeping heating-related consumption lower than typical for late December and early January. [12]
This push-pull—record exports vs. warm forecasts—is the core tension in natural gas today.
Supply side: record production keeps the market from panicking
The other reason today’s rebound hasn’t turned into a runaway rally is supply.
Reuters cited LSEG estimates showing Lower 48 U.S. natural gas output at a record 111.1 Bcf/d in December, beating November’s record pace. [13]
High production changes the psychology of winter trading:
- Cold risk still matters, but the market has more confidence that supply can respond
- Price spikes tend to fade faster unless weather is persistently extreme or infrastructure is disrupted
This is one reason the market can rally on demand revisions and export strength while still staying vulnerable to any fresh wave of “warmth-added” model runs.
A new power-market angle: offshore wind pause could keep gas more central to electricity supply
One underappreciated catalyst in today’s Reuters reporting: U.S. policy news that could affect power generation.
Reuters cited that the Trump administration suspended leases for five large offshore wind projects under construction off the U.S. East Coast, citing national security concerns. The report added that reduced renewable generation expectations could mean greater reliance on natural gas-fired electricity. [14]
This is not an immediate “tomorrow morning” demand shock, but it’s a meaningful narrative tailwind for natural gas: when reliability concerns rise, gas often regains strategic importance in grid planning.
Europe: prices ease as forecasts soften, but storage remains the big storyline
European gas pricing today is being pulled by weather expectations and the pace of winter storage drawdowns.
Reuters reporting (via LSEG data) showed:
- Dutch TTF front-month down to €27.36/MWh by 10:05 GMT on forecasts suggesting a potentially quicker end to a cold spell. [15]
- LSEG analyst commentary indicating ensemble forecasts shifted toward more normal levels for the first week of January, though uncertainty remains because other models still suggest colder conditions. [16]
On the fundamentals, Europe is not flashing the panic signals seen in past winters:
- Norwegian pipeline deliveries were cited around 343.5 million cubic meters/day, slightly higher day-on-day. [17]
- EU storage sites were cited at 66.89% filled. [18]
- LNG supply was described as likely “still a lot available in January,” even if holiday timing briefly reduces arrivals. [19]
Bottom line: Europe’s market tone today looks more like managed winter balancing than crisis bidding—and that helps cap global LNG spillover into U.S. pricing.
LNG market watch: Myanmar returns and Australia signals tighter domestic priorities
Two LNG trade developments worth watching beyond day-to-day futures moves:
Myanmar: a returning LNG buyer
Reuters cited Kpler expectations that Myanmar will resume LNG imports next year, after a more than four-year hiatus (following partial cargo delivery last month). [20]
Myanmar won’t move global prices alone, but it’s a reminder that LNG demand growth increasingly comes from smaller, price-sensitive buyers—which can matter in tight winters and shoulder seasons.
Australia: a gas reservation policy that could reshape east-coast LNG
Australia’s government has announced a new gas reservation approach beginning in 2027 that would require LNG exporters to set aside 15–25% of production for domestic use—designed to prevent shortages and reduce local price pressure. [21]
RBC analysis reported by The Australian described Santos-led GLNG as particularly exposed due to its supply profile and reliance on third-party gas versus peers. [22]
This is not an immediate December 2025 price mover—but in LNG, policy direction becomes today’s forward curve, influencing investment, contracting behavior, and long-term supply expectations.
Natural gas outlook: what traders are watching next
With Christmas week liquidity and weather volatility, the next several sessions are likely to hinge on three catalysts:
- Weather model convergence
- If late-January cold risk strengthens across major models, today’s bounce could extend.
- If warmth persists or expands, rallies may fade quickly. [23]
- LNG feedgas continuity
- The market is leaning on near-record feedgas flows; any sustained drop (maintenance, freeze-offs, pipeline constraints) would show up fast in price. [24]
- Europe’s storage and temperature trajectory
- A renewed cold push or supply disruption can tighten the Atlantic LNG market, supporting U.S. exports and Henry Hub sentiment.
- A mild Europe reduces urgency, keeping more LNG flexible and pressuring global benchmarks. [25]
References
1. www.bairdmaritime.com, 2. www.worldenergynews.com, 3. www.wsj.com, 4. www.bairdmaritime.com, 5. markets.businessinsider.com, 6. markets.ft.com, 7. www.worldenergynews.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.bairdmaritime.com, 10. www.bairdmaritime.com, 11. www.bairdmaritime.com, 12. www.bairdmaritime.com, 13. www.bairdmaritime.com, 14. www.bairdmaritime.com, 15. www.worldenergynews.com, 16. www.worldenergynews.com, 17. www.worldenergynews.com, 18. www.worldenergynews.com, 19. www.worldenergynews.com, 20. www.bairdmaritime.com, 21. www.theaustralian.com.au, 22. www.theaustralian.com.au, 23. www.bairdmaritime.com, 24. www.bairdmaritime.com, 25. www.worldenergynews.com
