New York, Feb 15, 2026, 12:18 PM EST — Market closed
- March Henry Hub natural gas settled higher on Friday as traders turned their attention back to the latest weather updates.
- Gas rigs in the U.S. ticked up last week, while oil rigs slipped.
- Next up for traders: fresh temperature models and the U.S. storage update set for Feb. 19.
U.S. natural gas futures ticked up Friday, with traders adjusting positions on the back of late-February weather updates and consistent LNG export plant flows ahead of a subdued weekend session. The March Henry Hub contract settled at $3.243 per mmBtu, up 2.6 cents, or 0.81%. BNEF data put Lower 48 dry gas output at 113.9 bcf/d for the day, demand checked in at 95.3 bcf/d, and net flows to LNG export plants hovered near 19.2 bcf/d.
The pause is key here—weather’s still the main driver, with supply following. Should Midwest and Southern forecasts hang onto this warmth into next week, heating demand could fall off fast. But if that late-month cold signal sticks around, the balance could tighten up, especially with LNG feedgas holding steady at high levels.
“Natural gas prices are unlikely to lose their volatility anytime soon,” said Bryce Erickson at Mercer Capital, citing weather, storage, and global LNG flows as the key forces behind near-term price swings. “What has changed is the industry’s ability to respond,” he said. Midland Reporter-Telegram
Signals on supply sent mixed messages late last week. Gas-directed rigs in the U.S. ticked up by three to 133 for the week ended Feb. 13, but oil rigs slipped by three, now at 409. The overall rig count stayed flat at 551, according to Baker Hughes numbers reported by The American Oil & Gas Reporter.
Looking past the next set of weather models, traders have their eyes on supply, too. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects U.S. marketed natural gas output will hit 120.8 bcf/d in 2026 and climb to 122.3 bcf/d the following year, driven mostly by gains in Appalachia, Haynesville, and the Permian. The EIA is calling for Henry Hub prices to average $4.31/mmBtu in 2026, up from $3.52 in 2025, as stronger demand and what the agency calls “elevated” prices keep drilling activity attractive. U.S. Energy Information Administration
Pipeline operators are moving to capitalize on that demand picture. TC Energy’s management, in comments reported by Reuters following its earnings, projected North American natural gas demand will jump around 45 bcf/d between 2025 and 2035. The drivers: power sector needs, industrial expansion, and LNG exports.
The daily push-pull holds: cold weather can send prices jumping, but any hint of warmth or robust supply yanks them right back. LNG exports help soften the blows, yet with production still on the rise, they can’t change the fundamental supply story.
Still, the risk on the downside hasn’t changed: should warmer forecasts return, heating demand could drop off into late February and March. That would leave the market contending with robust output, extra rigs, and a supply balance that keeps getting looser.
Once trading picks back up, the focus shifts to updated U.S. temperature forecasts, LNG feedgas figures, and hints of supply disruptions. Eyes are on Thursday for the weekly U.S. storage data from the EIA—Feb. 19. The next rig-count snapshot lands Feb. 20.
