LONDON, March 20, 2026, 20:13 GMT
Europe’s benchmark wholesale natural gas contract slipped on Friday, though it remained close to a three-year peak following strikes that disrupted Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub and yanked a hefty chunk of supply from the market. April Dutch TTF gas settled at 59.255 euros per megawatt-hour, a 4.2% pullback after Thursday’s spike of up to 35%.
QatarEnergy flagged that about 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity—12.8 million tonnes per year—could be out of action for as long as three to five years. Gas prices in Europe have already doubled compared to levels before the conflict broke out on Feb. 28. Now, Brussels is considering emergency measures to protect factories and households from the fallout.
QatarEnergy chief Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters that the attacks wiped out the “cold boxes” on two liquefaction trains—the equipment used to chill gas before shipping it as a liquid. Italy is holding talks with the U.S., Azerbaijan, and Algeria to line up alternative supply. India, for its part, flagged that losing Qatari cargoes could squeeze a market where it sources roughly 41% of its LNG from Qatar. Force majeure has already been triggered on some contracts, suspending deliveries after events outside sellers’ control. Reuters
“We’re now firmly heading toward a doomsday gas-crisis scenario,” Saul Kavonic at MST Financial told Reuters. Over at Saxo in Singapore, Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist, pointed out that traders have moved past just tracking war headlines—the conflict, she said, is striking right at “the plumbing of the global energy system.” Reuters
That’s pushed investors straight to the few non-Gulf exporters still able to scale up. Cheniere Energy surged to a record $285 on Thursday, and shares of Venture Global soared as much as 13%. Wood Mackenzie’s Tom Marzec-Manser said the shakeup means more business for suppliers outside the Gulf for years. Over at Columbia, Ira Joseph flagged a bigger risk—if Qatar’s massive North Field expansion gets hit too, “structurally we have to adjust our LNG prices higher.” NextDecade also landed on the list of U.S. projects that could step in as alternative supply. Reuters
Policy makers aren’t waiting. EU leaders have called on the Commission to roll out temporary relief — tax cuts, reduced grid charges, state aid all on the table. Over at the European Central Bank, policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau signaled the ECB was poised to move if surging oil and gas prices push inflation higher, saying the central bank had its “hands ready to act.” Reuters
Traders aren’t seeing this as just a fleeting surge. With CERAWeek coming up in Houston, energy execs anticipate prices will remain high long after the conflict ends—roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz, after all. And Qatar’s warned repairs to the damaged facility could drag on for years.
Traders aren’t just bracing for pain—they’re probing relief angles too. Oil ended Friday up, but the ride was jagged, with investors eyeing both potential strategic reserve releases and talk of sanctions relief for Iranian barrels stuck on the sidelines. Any substantial let-up across energy markets could take some heat out of gas prices, although that doesn’t fill the LNG gap left by Qatar.
