New York, Jan 28, 2026, 14:05 EST — Regular session
- NYMEX March natural gas futures fell about 2.6% to $3.721 per mmBtu; the front end remains volatile into contract expiry.
- United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) dropped about 2.1%, while gas producer EQT rose about 1.8% and LNG exporter Cheniere gained nearly 0.9%.
- Traders are watching Thursday’s EIA storage report as freeze-offs and LNG disruptions reshape near-term balances.
U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Wednesday, with the NYMEX March contract down 2.6% at $3.721 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) fell 2.1% to $14.39. (Investing)
The move comes as the latest cold snap keeps power markets on edge and leaves traders guessing how fast supply can recover. PJM Interconnection forecast winter electricity demand hitting 148 gigawatts on Friday, while LSEG data showed Lower 48 gas output had fallen to a two-year low of 92.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Sunday before clawing back toward 97.5 bcfd on Wednesday. (Investing)
Freeze-offs — when water and other liquids in production streams freeze and choke well output — have been a drag on supply, and the price curve is showing it. The February contract settled at $6.954 per mmBtu on Tuesday versus $3.820 for March, according to Sprague Energy, which also pointed to a 230 billion cubic foot storage withdrawal expected in Thursday’s U.S. government report. (Sprague Energy)
LNG feedgas flows have been just as jumpy. RBN Energy said Winter Storm Fern pushed feedgas demand down to about 11.5 bcfd on Sunday from around 18.9 bcfd earlier in the week, with Elba Island shut in and Cove Point running below 0.2 bcfd. (RBN Energy)
On the water, ship-tracking data told a similar story. Vortexa said crude oil and LNG exports from U.S. Gulf Coast ports fell to zero on Sunday before rebounding on Monday, after weather-related port closures; “exports rebounded on Monday with flows above seasonal norms,” said Samantha Santa Maria-Hartke, head of market analysis at Vortexa. (Reuters)
In equities, some gas-linked names held firm even as March futures eased. EQT was up 1.8%, Range Resources rose 1.9%, Antero Resources was little changed, and LNG exporter Cheniere Energy added 0.9% in afternoon trade.
Analysts said the tape is still about weather and the knock-on effects. “Natural gas is pulling back after the worst of the cold has passed,” Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, said in an interview with Rigzone, while EBW Analytics Group’s Eli Rubin warned that “extreme price volatility will endure.” (Rigzone)
The split between the high-priced February contract and cheaper March has been the tell. Traders have been treating the spike as a short, sharp dislocation tied to near-term heating demand and infrastructure stress, not a clean break to a higher long-run price.
But the downside case is straightforward: if the warm-up holds, freeze-offs fade and LNG feedgas and Gulf Coast exports normalize, the front end can deflate fast and pull UNG with it. A fresh blast of cold, or another operational stumble, would flip the risk back the other way.
The next hard checkpoint is Thursday, Jan. 29, when the Energy Information Administration releases weekly gas storage data at 10:30 a.m. ET. Traders will also be watching contract roll dynamics and the day-to-day prints on output and LNG flows for signs the storm premium is finally cracking.
