New York, Jan 28, 2026, 10:46 EST — Regular session
- February U.S. natural gas futures dropped roughly 6%, settling near $6.53/mmBtu ahead of Wednesday’s expiration
- EQT shares climbed in early trading, keeping pace with other U.S. gas producers
- Traders eye weather changes, production restarts, and Thursday’s U.S. storage report
U.S. natural gas futures for February delivery dropped roughly 6% on Wednesday as traders trimmed their positions following this week’s weather-fueled jump. The February contract fell 42.3 cents, landing at $6.53 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), with expiration set for later Wednesday. Meanwhile, March futures hovered near $3.82. (Barchart)
The market is juggling two factors: short-term supply hiccups from the Arctic blast and the switch from the expiring February contract to March. This divide has stretched the gap between prompt prices and those further out, underscoring that the current squeeze centers on immediate fuel availability rather than a fundamental shift in gas valuations.
Front-month U.S. gas futures jumped nearly 30% Monday, closing at $6.80—the highest since December 2022—as a storm froze equipment and forced producers offline. Output in the Lower 48 states averaged 106.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this January, down from December’s record 109.7 bcfd, according to LSEG data. Rystad Energy put peak production losses near 20 bcfd. Over the weekend, regulatory filings revealed disruptions at Texas natural gas processing plants and compressor stations, including sites linked to Occidental and Targa, Reuters reported. (Reuters)
The storm also disrupted flows from the Gulf Coast, where LNG export facilities and ports vie with domestic buyers for feedgas. Exports of crude oil and LNG from U.S. Gulf Coast ports fell to zero on Sunday, then bounced back on Monday, according to ship-tracking firm Vortexa. “Port closures … reduced exports,” said Samantha Santa Maria-Hartke, head of market analysis at Vortexa, noting that shipments resumed once ports reopened. (Reuters)
ING’s Warren Patterson noted the impact extended well beyond futures markets. He reported that spot Henry Hub prices briefly topped $30/mmBtu amid the freeze. U.S. LNG plants reportedly slashed gas intake by roughly 48% in recent days, he added. “If this trend continues, it suggests prices have likely peaked,” Patterson said, highlighting early indications of production bouncing back. (Investing)
In equities, EQT climbed 1.8% to $39.55. Antero Resources jumped 2.8%, and Range Resources increased 2.1%. Cheniere Energy, the LNG exporter, ticked up 0.4%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) gained 1.7%.
Gas producer shares typically track the broader curve instead of the most volatile prompt price, especially as contract expiry and weather news shake up the front month. Plus, many producers hedge some of their output, cushioning the short-term earnings hit from a sudden one-week surge.
The setup remains delicate. If the thaw accelerates unexpectedly, wells and processing plants might come back online sooner, pushing the prompt contract lower and cooling the surge in gas-linked stocks. On the flip side, another cold snap or ongoing issues at LNG plants and pipelines could swing the risk back in the opposite direction.
Traders are eyeing fresh weather forecasts and early indications that “freeze-offs” — when frozen water halts well flow — are easing. They’re also waiting to see if LNG export demand picks up again as the Gulf Coast resumes operations. The key data comes Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly natural gas storage report.
