New York, Feb 4, 2026, 17:11 EST — After-hours
- U.S. natural gas futures climbed roughly 5%, hitting about $3.48 per mmBtu by late afternoon.
- The market continues to process a sudden spike in temperature forecasts following last week’s Arctic freeze.
- Attention now turns to the U.S. storage report on Feb. 5, where some analysts predict a record draw.
U.S. Henry Hub natural gas futures jumped roughly 5% Wednesday, settling near $3.48 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by late afternoon. Leveraged natural-gas ETFs followed suit: BOIL surged about 7.5%, while KOLD dropped close to 8%.
The rebound comes after a sharp reversal: the March contract plunged almost 19% early Monday as forecasts shifted toward near-normal temperatures through mid-February and frozen wells began thawing. LSEG estimates Lower 48 output at 106.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month, with flows to the eight major U.S. LNG export plants averaging 18.4 bcfd.
Tuesday saw March futures climb 1.5% to $3.286, despite forecasts predicting warmer-than-usual weather through mid-February, Reuters reported. The contract had already jumped 140% between Jan. 20 and 28, then dropped 57% from Jan. 29 to Feb. 2, driving 30-day volatility to an unprecedented 258.1%.
LNG export demand remains the key driver, tightening the U.S. market’s role in the global supply chain. U.S. LNG shipments fell to 11.3 million metric tons in January, down from a record 11.5 million in December, after a late-month freeze forced some plants offline, according to LSEG data. Europe accounted for 9.46 million tons of U.S. exports — 83% of the total — as Dutch TTF averaged $11.81 per mmBtu, compared to Asia’s JKM at $10.43.
At Henry Hub, this is crucial since LNG feedgas—gas sent to liquefaction plants for export—directly competes with both heating demand and storage. The balance can shift quickly if a plant trips or the Gulf Coast faces severe weather.
Storage is the next test. Analysts surveyed by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, forecast the EIA will report a 366 billion cubic feet (Bcf) withdrawal for the week ending Jan. 30 — a record-breaking figure. Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group called it “a draw for the ages” and described the situation as “a perfect storm.” EBW Analytics warned that “further downside cannot be ruled out” once winter demand eases, despite the near-term support from large storage deficits. SP Global
The reason is straightforward: following last week’s freeze-offs, traders need confirmation—did inventories truly shift from surplus to deficit, or is the recent warm spell easing the impact faster than the market expected?
The EIA usually releases its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursdays. According to the agency’s data site, the next scheduled release is Feb. 5.
Yet the rally isn’t without its weak spot. Should the warmer forecast stick and production bounce back, futures could lose their gains in a flash — the past two weeks proved how quickly “freeze-offs” reverse into a supply glut. LNG shipments can also falter when U.S. export facilities undergo maintenance or weather disrupts operations.
Traders’ focus narrows to a short list: Thursday’s EIA storage report, daily LNG feedgas figures, and fresh weather model updates stretching into mid-February.
