New York time check: It is 1:31 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025 in New York.
U.S. natural gas is back in the spotlight as winter weather risk re-enters the conversation, even while Wall Street trades in a post-holiday lull near record highs. With U.S. equity benchmarks hovering close to all-time levels and trading volumes typically thinner during the last week of the year, natural gas has become one of the more reactive “macro micro” trades: a market driven by near-term temperature models, storage withdrawals, and LNG export flows—yet increasingly shaped by bigger structural debates about global LNG supply growth and the speed of renewables adoption.
Below is what’s moving natural gas right now, what today’s stock market tone adds to the setup, and what investors should keep on their radar before the next session.
Natural gas price action today: winter volatility returns to the “widowmaker”
Natural gas futures are firmer heading into the final stretch of 2025, supported by a colder outlook and renewed demand expectations.
A widely cited market update on Friday reported front-month NYMEX natural gas futures for January delivery around $4.29/MMBtu, up on the day and up about 8.5% for the week, snapping a two-week losing streak as forecasts tilt colder into early January. [1]
CME’s benchmark Henry Hub-linked futures also show green on the screen for nearby 2026 contracts, underscoring the same theme: a market repricing winter risk. [2]
Why it matters for investors: Natural gas tends to trade like a weather derivative in winter. When models shift colder, prices can jump quickly—especially in thin holiday liquidity.
The big driver: colder weather models (and thin holiday liquidity)
The near-term catalyst is straightforward: forecasts are pointing to colder conditions through early January, lifting expected heating demand.
One widely shared market commentary captured both forces—weather and year-end liquidity—in a single line. Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis, said holiday trading is “thinner,” but the “real storyline” is colder weather models, particularly for the Eastern U.S. [3]
The same update noted meteorologists projecting temperatures trending lower through around January 10, with heating degree days rising versus midweek readings—still below long-term normals in that snapshot, but moving in the bullish direction for demand. [4]
What to watch this weekend: Model updates (especially shifts in the 10–15 day outlook) often arrive when many equity investors are “off-desk,” which can amplify Monday moves if the forecast changes materially.
U.S. supply is high — but demand is also hitting records
A key reason natural gas has stayed volatile rather than collapsing under “record production” headlines is that demand has also expanded—most importantly via LNG.
1) Production near record highs
Market data cited Friday put Lower-48 output near record levels in December (around 109–110 Bcf/d). [5]
2) LNG feedgas remains a structural tailwind
The same Friday market update pegged feedgas flows to major U.S. LNG export plants around the high-18 Bcf/d area in December—near record territory—helping tighten domestic balances when weather turns colder. [6]
Industry groups are seeing the same story from another angle. The American Gas Association (AGA) flagged LNG as a major “what to watch,” noting feedgas deliveries are up more than 23% year-to-date, putting 2025 on track for a new annual record. [7]
3) Operational headlines still matter (Freeport example)
LNG facilities can also create sudden “micro-shocks.” Friday’s market update said Freeport LNG confirmed all three liquefaction trains at its Texas plant had resumed operations after a temporary trip tied to feed gas disruption—a detail traders watch closely because it directly affects domestic demand for gas. [8]
Storage: the EIA tells a “tight but not panicked” story—yet
U.S. storage remains one of the cleanest weekly indicators for whether the market is truly tightening.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported working gas in storage at 3,579 Bcf as of Friday, December 12, 2025, a weekly withdrawal of 167 Bcf. Stocks were 32 Bcf above the five‑year average (3,547 Bcf) but 61 Bcf below the same time last year. [9]
Investor takeaway:
- Storage is not at crisis levels, but it’s also not a huge cushion if the cold intensifies and LNG feedgas remains elevated.
- When balances tighten, options-implied volatility and calendar spreads can move as much as outright prices.
Official forecasts: EIA lifts winter expectations, eyes higher prices into 2026
Forecasts matter because they shape institutional positioning—especially into year-end.
In its December 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA said a cold snap was putting upward pressure on prices and forecast the Henry Hub spot price averaging around $4.30/MMBtu this winter heating season (November–March)—about 22% higher than last winter. [10]
The EIA also explicitly tied the revision to weather assumptions, citing NOAA-based heating degree day expectations and forecasting higher residential/commercial consumption in December versus the prior month’s outlook—implying a drawdown in storage. [11]
Key upcoming date: The EIA lists the next STEO release for January 13, 2026—one of the next major “macro” inputs for gas markets. [12]
And because of the holiday schedule, EIA’s Natural Gas Weekly Update notes there was no release on Dec. 25 or Jan. 1, with the next update due Jan. 8, 2026. [13]
Global LNG and geopolitics: bullish near-term, complicated long-term
Natural gas is no longer a purely domestic U.S. story. LNG has made Henry Hub more globally connected—especially to Europe and Asia.
U.S. LNG exports: recent records
Reuters reported that U.S. LNG exports hit a record in November 2025 (10.9 million metric tonnes), with Europe taking about 70% of that total. Reuters also noted liquefaction feedgas demand hitting record levels (around 18 Bcf/d, briefly surpassing 19 Bcf/d on some days) and Henry Hub prices averaging $4.47/MMBtu in November. [14]
Russia, sanctions, and supply uncertainty
On the supply side, Reuters reported Russia has delayed its LNG output target of 100 million tons per year by several years due to Western sanctions, with revised plans pushing larger volumes further out. [15]
The 2026 supply wave: prices may need to fall globally
While winter weather can tighten the U.S. market, global analysts are increasingly focused on a 2026–2030 supply build.
Reuters reported that the LNG market is bracing for a supply surge in 2026, citing Kpler data projecting global LNG supply rising to about 475 million metric tons in 2026 (a double-digit percentage gain versus 2025). [16]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also said LNG supply is set to rise in 2026—up about 7% (around 40 bcm)—with new projects coming online in places including the U.S., Canada, and Qatar. [17]
Renewables vs LNG: a major long-horizon debate
A Reuters Breakingviews analysis went further, arguing that rapid advances in solar, wind, and batteries could turn an LNG “glut” into a deeper problem for developers if supply growth outpaces demand—especially if major importers increase renewables faster than expected. [18]
How to reconcile this as an investor:
- Short term (weeks): weather + storage + LNG feedgas drive price spikes.
- Medium term (2026): LNG supply additions and global demand growth shape international benchmarks and LNG margins.
- Long term (to 2030): the tug-of-war between LNG buildout and renewables deployment becomes central to valuation for LNG-heavy portfolios.
Today’s stock market backdrop: record highs, light volume, and cross-asset signals
Natural gas doesn’t trade in a vacuum—especially for investors positioned via energy equities, midstream, or LNG-linked names.
As of midday Friday, the S&P 500 was slightly lower but near record levels, with post-holiday trading expected to be quieter. [19]
Reuters’ “week ahead” market framing highlights how bullish the broader tape has been into year-end: the S&P 500 nearing the 7,000 milestone, and investors watching the Fed’s next signals after rate cuts earlier in 2025. [20]
Why this matters for natural gas-linked stocks:
- In a risk-on equity regime, investors can tolerate commodity volatility and may chase “beta” energy names.
- In thin year-end liquidity, single headlines (weather model flips, LNG terminal events, storage surprises) can produce outsized moves in both futures and gas-sensitive equities.
Natural gas and energy stocks: who’s most exposed?
If you’re following natural gas via stocks rather than futures, the sensitivity differs by business model.
Upstream producers
Gas-weighted E&Ps typically move with commodity expectations, but hedging programs can dampen (or delay) the impact.
Midstream and LNG infrastructure
Pipeline and terminal operators often have more fee-based exposure, meaning volumes and contracts can matter more than the spot price.
Reuters highlighted this dynamic through Kinder Morgan, noting the company’s view that stronger natural gas demand supports 2026 expectations and that it has long-term contracts tied to moving gas to LNG facilities (with an expectation of higher LNG-related volumes over time). [21]
Utilities and power markets: the coal-switching pressure valve
When natural gas rises sharply, the power sector sometimes switches to coal where possible. Reuters pointed to this risk, noting higher gas prices can push coal generation up—raising emissions and altering fuel demand patterns. [22]
If you’re investing now: what to watch into the close and before the next session
Because it’s 1:31 p.m. ET and U.S. equities are open, this is less about “pre-market prep” and more about staying positioned for the next catalyst window. [23]
1) Weather model updates (Saturday–Sunday)
- Any shift colder/warmer in the 10–15 day outlook can reset the Monday open.
2) LNG feedgas and terminal headlines
- Watch for operational updates at major exporters (a restart/trip can swing demand quickly). [24]
3) Storage expectations for the next EIA print
- Storage “consensus vs actual” is often the week’s biggest volatility event in winter. [25]
4) Year-end liquidity effects
- Thin holiday volume can exaggerate moves; sizing and risk controls matter more than usual. [26]
5) Calendar awareness
- NYSE indicates regular U.S. equity trading hours (with specified early-closes on certain dates like Dec. 24—already passed). Knowing what’s open helps avoid surprises around liquidity. [27]
- Next major U.S. market holiday is New Year’s Day (Jan. 1, 2026). [28]
The bottom line
Natural gas is ending 2025 with a familiar winter setup: prices responding to weather-driven demand shifts, while LNG exports keep the underlying balance tighter than it used to be. At the same time, the broader stock market’s year-end strength and thin liquidity can magnify commodity-linked moves—especially for gas-sensitive equities and midstream names.
In the coming days, the story is likely to stay simple: forecast models, LNG feedgas, and storage expectations. Over 2026 and beyond, the story gets more strategic: a growing LNG supply wave colliding with faster renewable deployment—and investors will increasingly need to decide whether gas is a “bridge fuel” winner, a volatility trade, or both. [29]
References
1. www.worldenergynews.com, 2. www.cmegroup.com, 3. www.worldenergynews.com, 4. www.worldenergynews.com, 5. www.worldenergynews.com, 6. www.worldenergynews.com, 7. www.aga.org, 8. www.worldenergynews.com, 9. www.eia.gov, 10. www.eia.gov, 11. www.eia.gov, 12. www.eia.gov, 13. www.eia.gov, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.iea.org, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. apnews.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.nyse.com, 24. www.worldenergynews.com, 25. www.eia.gov, 26. www.worldenergynews.com, 27. www.nyse.com, 28. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 29. www.iea.org
