Nat++West Group Plc Stock (NWG): Buyback Momentum, Evelyn Partners Deal Watch, and What Forecasts Say as of 24 December 2025

NatWest Group plc stock (LSE: NWG) is heading into the Christmas break sitting close to its best levels in years, with investors balancing three big forces: an ongoing £750 million share buyback, a potential move in UK wealth management via the Evelyn Partners sale process, and a UK interest-rate environment that’s turning more supportive for borrowers—but trickier for bank margins. ^[1]

In holiday-thinned trading on Wednesday, 24 December 2025, NatWest shares were around the 647p level, after touching an intraday high above 651p earlier in the session, according to widely used market data feeds. ^[2]

Below is a comprehensive, up-to-date round-up of the news, forecasts, and analyst/ratings-agency analysis that matters for NatWest stock as of 24.12.2025—and the next catalysts investors are likely to focus on when markets reopen.

NatWest share price today: where the stock stands on 24 December 2025

NatWest shares were indicated around 647p with the market marked “closed” for the day, reflecting the UK’s holiday schedule. Data providers show the stock traded in a roughly 646p–651p range on 24 December, after closing 648.6p on 23 December. ^[3]

Two details that matter for investor positioning into year-end:

The stock is near a 52-week high (data sources show a one-year range that extends up to the low/mid-650p area). ^[4]
Recent performance has been strong: one market data summary shows ~12% over one month and ~63% over one year (based on prior closes). ^[5]

Broader market context also matters because Christmas Eve liquidity is famously… not great. Reuters flagged muted European trading and reduced hours/closures across major venues on 24 December, which can amplify small flows in individual names. ^[6]

The biggest near-term driver: NatWest’s ongoing share buyback

The most concrete, company-confirmed “here and now” development for NatWest stock is the steady drumbeat of repurchases under its 2025 buyback programme.

The programme: up to £750 million, running into early 2026

NatWest’s buyback programme is up to £750 million, beginning 28 July 2025, and scheduled to end no later than 13 February 2026 (with a provision that allows an extension to no later than 13 March 2026 under specified circumstances). ^[7]

That matters for equity holders because buybacks can support earnings per share (fewer shares), and they signal management’s stance on capital strength and valuation.

The latest buyback transactions heading into 24 December

NatWest reported the following recent purchases (among others) under the buyback:

23 December 2025: purchased 771,656 ordinary shares at a volume-weighted average price of 645.41p (with trades reported between 638.60p and 649.60p). ^[8]
22 December 2025: purchased 882,353 ordinary shares at a volume-weighted average price of 643.06p (with trades reported between 640.20p and 645.40p). ^[9]

These daily disclosures do two things at once: they show ongoing demand from a price-insensitive buyer (the programme), and they provide a running record of shares in treasury / shares in issue used in per-share calculations. ^[10]

Deal watch: NatWest linked to the Evelyn Partners sale process

While buybacks are the “mechanical” support story, the market’s more narrative-driven catalyst is M&A speculation—specifically around Evelyn Partners, one of the UK’s largest wealth managers.

What’s been reported

Reuters reported in early December that Evelyn Partners’ owners (Permira and Warburg Pincus) had been running a sale process that could value the business at more than £2.5 billion, and that the process had drawn interest including from NatWest (as well as Lloyds and RBC, with Barclays exploring a bid). ^[11]

Sky News subsequently reported that Barclays and NatWest were among parties through to the next stage of the auction, with RBC also “in the frame,” and described Evelyn’s scale at roughly £64.6bn of assets under management and advice (as of end-June). ^[12]

Why investors care (even before any bid is confirmed)

If NatWest were to pursue Evelyn (or another UK wealth platform), it would fit a theme repeatedly highlighted across UK banking: growing fee-based income to balance a world where interest rates are no longer rising.

NatWest already has a high-profile private bank in Coutts, and ratings/strategy commentary has emphasized that the group has done selective bolt-on acquisitions to accelerate growth in targeted areas. ^[13]

The investor logic is straightforward:

Wealth management can provide recurring fee revenue.
It can deepen relationships with affluent customers who also borrow, save, and invest.
But it can also bring integration risk and the possibility of overpaying in a competitive auction.

At this stage, the important point for an NWG stock outlook is simple: this remains process / interest reporting, not a confirmed NatWest transaction. ^[14]

The macro backdrop: Bank of England rate cuts change the bank-stock math

NatWest is, by design, heavily concentrated in the UK. So the biggest macro variable for its earnings trajectory remains the Bank of England (BoE) rate path.

What the BoE did in December

On 18 December 2025, the BoE reduced Bank Rate to 3.75%, by a 5–4 vote, and indicated that—based on current evidence—rates are likely to continue on a gradual downward path, while cautioning future decisions may be “a closer call.” ^[15]

The BoE also confirmed the next decision is due 5 February 2026. ^[16]

What rate cuts usually do to banks (and why NatWest is a bit unusual)

In plain English: falling rates can squeeze what banks earn on lending relative to what they pay on deposits. But NatWest has a major mitigating feature that analysts and credit agencies keep coming back to:

the structural hedge.

Think of the structural hedge as a built-in shock absorber designed to smooth net interest income across rate cycles by managing interest-rate risk on stable deposits and capital resources. S&P Global Ratings highlighted it as a material revenue tailwind, noting an average duration of about 2.5 years and a yield profile expected to keep improving into the late 2020s as higher-rate reinvestments flow through. ^[17]

Fitch similarly emphasized the hedge’s earnings contribution, stating that structural hedge income is expected to be around £4bn in 2025 and over £5bn in 2026, with growth continuing into 2027 and 2028. ^[18]

That’s a big reason NatWest has been able to guide for strong returns even as the rate cycle turns.

Earnings and guidance: what NatWest has told the market about 2025 and beyond

NatWest’s own messaging in 2025 has been consistently focused on returns, capital distribution, and disciplined growth.

Management guidance heading into FY results

In its Q3 reporting materials, NatWest said it expects 2025 income (excluding notable items) to be around £16.3bn and return on tangible equity (RoTE) greater than 18%. It also said it will introduce 2026 guidance and new targets for 2028 alongside full-year results. ^[19]

The investor calendar shows the next major scheduled catalyst as FY Results 2025 on 13 February 2026. ^[20]

Recent performance context from major outlets

The Financial Times reported that NatWest posted its highest quarterly profits since before the 2008 bailout, with Q3 2025 pre-tax earnings reported at £2.2bn, and noted the share price reached a 15-year high on that result. ^[21]

Reuters also reported that NatWest’s Q3 profit rose and the group upgraded guidance as it grew lending and avoided some of the costly industry-wide issues that hit rivals (including UK auto finance-related mis-selling provisions elsewhere in the sector). ^[22]

Legal overhang check: banks (including NatWest) win UK Supreme Court bid in FX lawsuit

Not all stock-moving items are about earnings—sometimes they’re about what doesn’t happen.

On 18 December 2025, Reuters reported that major banks including NatWest won a UK Supreme Court decision that blocked an opt-out mass lawsuit over alleged foreign-exchange rigging (a claim tied to earlier European Commission findings). ^[23]

For NatWest investors, the main relevance is headline risk and tail-risk management: big, uncertain legal exposures can weigh on valuation multiples even when day-to-day profitability is strong.

Forecasts and analyst targets: what the Street is implying for NWG stock

Forecasts are not facts, and price targets are not prophecies—but they do tell you what assumptions are “priced into” mainstream research coverage.

Consensus price targets and recommendations

One compiled set of estimates shows 16 analysts with a median 12‑month target around 662.5p, with a high estimate of 765p and a low estimate of 550p (targets as of December updates). ^[24]

That same snapshot shows a recommendation mix skewed positive (Buy/Outperform dominating, with some Holds and a small number of Sells). ^[25]

What ratings agencies are saying (a different kind of “forecast”)

Credit-rating agencies aren’t setting equity price targets, but their forward-looking commentary is valuable because it stress-tests earnings durability.

S&P Global Ratings said management anticipates RoTE above 18% for full-year 2025 and greater than 15% in 2027, and expects further net interest margin expansion over its outlook horizon even as the BoE cuts rates. ^[26]

Fitch forecast operating profitability (operating profit/RWAs) remaining solid, supported by the hedge and cost discipline, while noting NatWest’s target CET1 range and expected RWA path. ^[27]

Corporate housekeeping: Director/PDMR shareholding update

NatWest also disclosed a small director/PDMR transaction: the group’s Chief Information Officer, Scott Marcar, acquired 1,933 ordinary shares on 23 December 2025 following the exercise of an option under the group’s UK ShareSave plan. ^[28]

These filings are typically not price-moving on their own (especially at this size), but they are part of the regulated news flow around the stock.

Key risks and watchpoints for NatWest investors into 2026

Even a strong chart and a buyback can’t repeal economics. The main variables investors will keep circling are:

1) Margin pressure vs. the structural hedge tailwind

Rate cuts can compress lending margins. NatWest’s hedge is designed to offset that—but the market will still watch:

deposit competition,
mortgage pricing pressure,
and the pace at which hedge reinvestments feed through earnings. ^[29]

2) UK growth and credit quality

S&P’s credit overview flags the UK’s subdued growth environment as a key risk factor in the background—even if current asset quality metrics are described as benign. ^[30]

3) Capital rules and regulatory calibration

Regulatory capital frameworks (including timelines around Basel implementation and buffers) can influence how much excess capital is available for dividends and buybacks over time. S&P discussed capital ratio expectations and referenced evolving regulatory requirements in its December update. ^[31]

4) M&A execution risk (if a deal materialises)

If NatWest were to move on Evelyn Partners (or any sizeable wealth acquisition), the market will quickly shift from “strategic logic” to “price paid, synergies, and integration.” ^[32]

What to watch next: the three dates that could matter most for NWG

5 February 2026 – Bank of England rate decision (next scheduled). ^[33]
13 February 2026 – NatWest FY 2025 results, where the bank has said it will set out 2026 guidance and new 2028 targets. ^[34]
Ongoing: buyback disclosures (RNS “Transaction in Own Shares”), which will keep providing real-time evidence of the programme’s pace and pricing. ^[35]

Bottom line for NatWest stock on 24.12.2025

As of 24 December 2025, NatWest stock is being supported by a tangible capital-return engine (the £750m buyback) and a narrative tailwind (possible wealth-management expansion), while the macro story is shifting toward rate cuts that can help borrowers but complicate headline bank-margin expectations. ^[36]

The reason NWG has stayed resilient into that rate-cut backdrop is that both the company and external analysts repeatedly point to the structural hedge as an unusually important earnings stabiliser—one that major ratings agencies expect to keep boosting income into 2026 and beyond. ^[37]