NatWest Group Plc stock is trading close to its highest levels since the financial crisis as of 4 December 2025, powered by robust earnings, aggressive share buybacks and a clean bill of health from the Bank of England’s latest stress tests.1
Where the NatWest share price stands on 4 December 2025
In London, NatWest’s LSE‑listed shares (LON: NWG) finished 3 December around 638p, near fresh multi‑year highs.TechStock²+1 A weak UK equity session on 4 December has pulled the stock back modestly, with NatWest among the leading fallers in the FTSE 100 and down about 3% intraday alongside broader market weakness.2
On Wall Street, the New York–listed ADR (NYSE: NWG) was recently trading near $16.70 in early Thursday trading, slightly lower on the day but still reflecting a powerful rerating over 2025.
Year to date, NatWest shares are up by more than 35–40%, significantly outpacing the wider UK market and marking one of the most successful post‑crisis turnarounds among European banks.3
Fresh catalysts driving NatWest stock this week
1. Ongoing daily share buybacks
NatWest is in the middle of a large capital‑return programme, and that machine kept humming on 3 December: the bank disclosed the repurchase of 851,396 ordinary shares at a volume‑weighted average price of 630.79p, with the intention to cancel them.4
Treasury share holdings now exceed 230 million shares, underlining how central buybacks have become to NatWest’s equity story. These purchases form part of the £750 million on‑market buyback announced alongside the H1 2025 results, on top of a 9.5p interim dividend.5
For existing shareholders, this is double‑barrelled:
- cash distributions through dividends, and
- a steadily shrinking share count that boosts earnings per share and return on tangible equity (RoTE).
2. Strong BoE stress‑test outcome bolsters confidence
A crucial support for this capital return is NatWest’s performance in the Bank of England’s 2025 stress tests. Under the central bank’s severe scenario, NatWest’s low‑point common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio would have been 11.1%, well above the hurdle rate and versus an actual CET1 of 13.6% at December 2024.6
Market commentary over the past few days has highlighted that passing the stress test with this margin effectively “de‑risks” NatWest’s capital story and helps justify continued buybacks and dividends at current elevated share‑price levels.7
3. Redemption of $1.5bn capital notes
Another fresh development is the planned redemption of $1.5 billion of capital notes on 29 December 2025. NatWest has announced that buying back these instruments will improve its CET1 ratio by around 5 basis points.8
While the CET1 uplift is modest, it signals management’s ongoing optimisation of the capital stack. Retiring expensive capital instruments and substituting them with common equity can, over time, reduce funding costs and simplify the balance sheet.
Under the bonnet: Q3 2025 results and upgraded guidance
The current share‑price strength is not just sentiment; it is rooted in a series of strong quarters.
For Q3 2025, NatWest reported:
- Total income (excluding notable items) of about £4.2 billion, up £0.2 billion year‑on‑year.
- Attributable profit of roughly £1.6 billion.
- Return on tangible equity of 22.3%.9
Management simultaneously upgraded 2025 guidance, now expecting:
- income (excluding notable items) of around £16.3 billion, and
- full‑year RoTE of more than 18%.10
Those are striking numbers for a UK‑focused retail and commercial bank and help explain why the share price has revisited levels last seen around the mid‑2000s.11
Operationally, Q3 also showed:
- continued loan growth, particularly in mortgages and corporate lending;
- relatively stable deposits, with only a small outflow; and
- solid fee and wealth income, with assets under management rising to approximately £56 billion.9
Credit quality remains benign, and litigation and conduct costs have shrunk dramatically versus earlier years, reducing one of the main historic overhangs on the story.9
Dividends, buybacks and total shareholder yield
Income investors have quietly been rediscovering NatWest. Over the past 12 months, the running dividend yield has hovered around 4–4.5%, based on the current share price and the last declared dividends.12
Analyst forecasts tracked by independent platforms suggest that, assuming earnings remain strong, NatWest’s dividend yield could trend higher towards the second half of the decade, with some scenarios pointing to a 5–6% yield by 2026–2027.13
That is before accounting for the buyback. Using the current programme as a reference, NatWest’s total “shareholder yield” (dividends plus buybacks as a percentage of market cap) is comfortably mid‑single‑digit and in some years approaches, or exceeds, high‑single‑digit territory.14
In a world where UK equities still trade on depressed multiples versus US peers, this kind of cash‑return profile is one of the main reasons NatWest continues to appear prominently on dividend‑stock screens.1
Analyst ratings and 12‑month price targets
Fresh research updates in recent days have added more fuel to the debate over how much upside is left.
- Royal Bank of Canada has raised its NatWest price target from 650p to 725p while maintaining a “sector perform” rating.15
- Jefferies recently lifted its target to 630p alongside a “buy” recommendation, reflecting confidence after the Q3 beat and upgraded guidance.15
- Across six London‑listed estimates tracked by MarketBeat, the average 12‑month price target sits around 667p, with a range from 550p to 765p. That implies mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit upside from roughly 620p.16
- For the US‑listed ADR, data compiled by Citi‑linked research platforms show an average one‑year target of about $17.50, roughly 3–4% above the late‑November closing price, with individual analyst targets spanning $14.66 to $20.23.17
Morningstar, which takes a more fundamental “fair value” approach, has twice raised its fair value estimate for NatWest in 2025 and now assigns the shares a narrow economic moat, citing sustained double‑digit RoTE and improved cost discipline.18
Put simply: the sell‑side no longer views NatWest as a deep‑value recovery story but as a high‑return franchise whose valuation is moving closer to “normal” bank territory.
Earnings forecasts into 2026
Street forecasts compiled by several data providers point to robust—if not explosive—earnings over the next two years.
Consensus figures for 2025 and 2026 indicate:
- group earnings broadly in the £5–6.5 billion range; and
- only a modest dip from the very strong 2025 outcome as interest‑rate tailwinds fade, partly offset by volume growth and cost efficiencies.19
On those numbers and today’s share price, NatWest is trading on roughly 9–10 times trailing earnings, slightly above its own long‑run average but still at a discount to many global banking peers.20
If management does indeed deliver RoTE north of 18% while maintaining a cushion over regulatory capital requirements, the current multiple does not look stretched by historical standards.21
Key risks for NatWest investors
The investment case is not without hazards:
- UK macro and rate risk – NatWest is heavily exposed to the UK economy. Any sharp downturn, particularly in housing or small‑business credit, could push impairments higher and squeeze margins as rate cuts eventually arrive.
- Regulatory and political risk – Stress‑test relief and capital‑requirement tweaks have helped, but UK banks remain politically sensitive, especially after the government’s full exit from its NatWest stake in May 2025. Future changes to bank levies, capital rules or consumer‑protection standards could affect profitability.11
- Competition and deposit pricing – Fintechs and high‑yield savings products continue to put pressure on deposit costs. To defend market share, NatWest may have to give up some margin.
- Legacy and conduct issues – While much improved, the sector’s history of mis‑selling and compliance failures means that new issues cannot be entirely ruled out.
Is NatWest Group Plc stock a buy at current levels?
As of 4 December 2025, NatWest sits in an unusual position for a UK bank:
- trading near 15‑year highs;
- still on a single‑digit to low‑double‑digit earnings multiple;
- returning significant capital through dividends and buybacks; and
- backed by a strong stress‑test outcome and upgraded profitability guidance.11
For investors comfortable with UK banking risk, the stock increasingly looks like a high‑yield, high‑RoTE franchise rather than a distressed turnaround. Future total returns from here will likely depend less on multiple expansion and more on:
- whether management can sustain RoTE in the high‑teens as rates normalise, and
- how aggressively the bank continues to deploy excess capital into buybacks and dividends.
NatWest is no longer the crisis‑era story it once was. For better or worse, it is starting to resemble what long‑term investors often want from a bank: solid profitability, disciplined capital management, and a steady stream of cash back to shareholders—albeit with the usual macro and regulatory caveats that come with the territory.
