London, Feb 2, 2026, 09:09 GMT — Regular session.
NatWest Group NWG.L shares slipped 0.1% to 664.6 pence by 0909 GMT on Monday, after opening the session in a range from 656.2 to 665.4 pence. The lender’s market cap stood around 53 billion pounds.
The change itself is minor, but the calendar looms large. UK bank stocks usually react to adjustments in rate expectations since Bank Rate directly affects net interest margin — the difference between loan earnings and deposit costs. Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, and HSBC typically move in sync on these cues.
Attention now shifts to the Bank of England’s meeting later this week, with NatWest’s annual results due shortly after. Traders are weighing whether rates will stay “higher for longer” or if this is merely a breather before further cuts.
Reuters reported that economists are betting the BoE will keep the Bank Rate steady at 3.75% on Thursday, as inflation remained at 3.4% in December, keeping policymakers cautious. Investors see almost no chance of a rate cut this week and assign less than a 50% probability to more than one cut during the year, according to the report. “We expect Bank Rate to be cut twice this year,” said Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank. Reuters
The central bank will release its February Monetary Policy Report at 1200 GMT on Feb. 5, the same day it announces its rate decision.
NatWest is set to release its annual results at 0700 GMT on Friday, Feb. 13, with a management presentation scheduled for later that morning, per its investor calendar.
In its Q3 report, the bank said it plans to unveil 2026 guidance and fresh 2028 targets alongside the full-year results. Investors will be watching closely for signs on how fast income might drop if rates decline, plus the impact on dividends and buybacks.
But the situation works both ways. A more hawkish BoE might dampen credit demand, while quicker-than-anticipated rate cuts could pinch interest income — particularly if mortgage and savings rates remain fiercely competitive.
NatWest shares face key tests ahead: the BoE decision on Feb. 5 and the bank’s earnings report on Feb. 13. Investors will be watching closely for any updates on guidance and capital-return strategies.
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