Nebius Group N.V. Stock (NBIS) Today: Meta Deal, Microsoft Contract and Hedge Fund Buying

As of 30 November 2025, Nebius Group N.V. stock (NASDAQ: NBIS) sits at the center of the AI‑infrastructure trade: the shares have surged more than 240% year‑to‑date, yet remain roughly 30% below their recent 52‑week high after a month of sharp volatility. ^[1]

New filings this weekend show another hedge fund building a fresh position in Nebius, while analysts continue to debate whether the AI data‑center specialist is a high‑beta bubble or a long‑term compounder powered by multi‑billion‑dollar contracts with Microsoft and Meta. ^[2]

This article rounds up the latest developments as of 30 November 2025 and explains what they may mean for Nebius stock.

1. Nebius Group N.V. at a Glance

Nebius Group N.V. is a Dutch technology company that builds full‑stack cloud infrastructure for the global AI industry, combining large GPU clusters, custom hardware, and software tooling for model training and inference. The company is headquartered in Amsterdam and listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker NBIS. ^[3]

Nebius emerged from the restructuring of Russia’s Yandex N.V. and has rapidly repositioned itself as an “AI utility” rather than a consumer‑internet business, operating high‑density data centers in Europe and North America and constructing a 300 MW flagship site in Vineland, New Jersey. ^[4]

Price, performance and volatility

Key snapshot metrics as of late November 2025:

Share price: Nebius recently closed around $94.87 in U.S. trading, with after‑hours indications near $95. ^[5]
Year‑to‑date performance: Shares are up roughly 240–330% in 2025, depending on the starting point used, making Nebius one of the best‑performing mid‑large‑cap AI names this year. ^[6]
52‑week range: About $18–$141, highlighting just how violent the stock’s move has been. ^[7]
Market capitalization: Around $24–28 billion, depending on the data vendor and FX rates. ^[8]

Benzinga recently noted that Nebius closed one session up 6.5% at $94.69 while still trading roughly 30% below its $141.10 high, framing the current setup as a large drawdown inside a still‑huge uptrend. ^[9]

2. Mega‑Deals with Microsoft and Meta Define the Bull Case

The single biggest driver of Nebius’ story in 2025 has been a pair of massive “hyperscaler” contracts.

$17.4 billion AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft

In September, Nebius announced a five‑year, $17.4 billion agreement to supply GPU infrastructure to Microsoft, with an option that could take the total value up to $19.4 billion. ^[10]

Under the deal:

Nebius will deliver dedicated GPU capacity from its new Vineland, New Jersey, data center.
Microsoft effectively prepays for large blocks of capacity, providing Nebius with long‑term contracted revenue tied to AI workloads.
The announcement sent Nebius shares up more than 47% in after‑hours trading when it was first disclosed, underscoring how central the partnership is to the bull case. ^[11]

A 24/7 Wall St. analysis framed Nebius as one of three companies tackling the “bright line bottlenecks” of AI—power and data‑center space—arguing that Nebius’ data centers operate roughly 20% more power‑efficiently than standard cloud facilities, a critical edge when energy can account for over 40% of operating costs. ^[12]

$3 billion Meta contract and Q3 revenue surge

On 11 November, alongside its Q3 results, Nebius unveiled a five‑year, $3 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta Platforms to provide high‑performance GPU capacity. ^[13]

Reuters summarized the combined impact:

Q3 revenue jumped 355% year‑over‑year to $146.1 million, driven by hyperscaler demand.
Nebius’ annualized recurring revenue (ARR) moved into the mid‑hundreds of millions, with management targeting $7–9 billion in run‑rate revenue by the end of 2026, supported by the Microsoft and Meta contracts. ^[14]

The Meta contract also highlights one practical constraint: Reuters noted that demand was strong enough that Nebius had to cap the deal based on its available capacity, reinforcing the narrative that the company is bottlenecked more by power and build‑out pace than by demand. ^[15]

3. Q3 2025 Earnings: Explosive Growth, Heavy Spending

Nebius’ third‑quarter 2025 results present a classic “hyper‑growth, high‑capex” AI infrastructure profile.

Top‑line growth and margins

Revenue: $146.1 million in Q3 2025, up 355% versus a year earlier. ^[16]
Gross profit: Benzinga reports gross profit rising roughly 365% to over $100 million, for a gross margin above 70%—levels more commonly associated with mature cloud providers than early‑stage infrastructure builders. ^[17]

High gross margins support the thesis that once Nebius’ data centers are built and filled, incremental capacity can be very profitable.

Losses and capital expenditures

The flip side is the cost of building that capacity:

Reuters reported a quarterly net loss of more than $100 million, widening from about $39.7 million a year earlier, largely due to massive capital expenditure. ^[18]
Capex in the quarter reached around $955 million, as Nebius invested heavily in GPUs, land, and power infrastructure. ^[19]

A Barron’s piece noted that, despite the huge revenue growth and Meta win, Q3 revenue still missed analyst expectations (around $155 million), and that the company remains unprofitable on an adjusted basis, helping explain why the stock sold off after the print. ^[20]

ATM program and earlier capital raise

To fund these build‑outs, Nebius has leaned hard on capital markets:

In September, the company completed a capital raise of roughly $4.2 billion, combining a $1.0 billion Class A share offering with $2.75 billion in convertible senior notes (upsized from $2.0 billion). ^[21]
Alongside Q3 results, Nebius announced an at‑the‑market (ATM) equity program for up to 25 million Class A shares, giving management flexibility to sell new shares over time as funding needs arise. ^[22]

An AI‑generated analysis on AInvest highlighted that while the ATM program offers flexibility, it also introduces ongoing dilution risk if used aggressively to finance growth. ^[23]

4. New Platforms: Token Factory and AI Cloud 3.0 “Aether”

Nebius is not just selling raw GPU capacity; it is trying to build a sticky, software‑rich platform around that infrastructure.

Nebius Token Factory: scaling open‑source inference

On 5 November, Nebius launched Nebius Token Factory, a production‑grade inference platform for open‑source and custom models. ^[24]

According to Nebius and industry coverage:

Token Factory lets enterprises deploy, optimize, and govern open‑source models (including DeepSeek, Llama and others) on Nebius’ GPU cloud with sub‑second latency and 99.9% uptime even at very high request volumes. ^[25]
Early adopters reported dramatic cost reductions, with AInvest citing internal figures of up to 26x lower inference costs for some workloads. ^[26]
Bloomberg and Techloy both framed Token Factory as a direct competitive shot at Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services for open‑model inference, with support for 60+ models and a focus on enterprise governance. ^[27]

If Token Factory gains traction, it could transform Nebius from a capacity vendor into a higher‑margin platform provider.

Nebius AI Cloud 3.0 “Aether”: compliance as a moat

In October, Nebius rolled out AI Cloud 3.0 “Aether”, emphasizing security and regulatory compliance for heavily regulated sectors. ^[28]

Key features include:

SOC 2 Type II (including HIPAA) and ISO 27001 certifications, plus alignment with standards and frameworks such as ISO 27799, ISO 27701, NIS2 and DORA. ^[29]
Fine‑grained identity and access management (IAM), enhanced observability, and built‑in secrets management, designed for banks, healthcare systems and government agencies that need traceability and auditability. ^[30]

Together, Aether and Token Factory give Nebius a credible story that it can serve not just AI startups but also large, regulated enterprises—an angle that may help justify premium valuations if adoption follows.

5. Fresh News on 30 November 2025: Hedge Funds, Research and Sentiment

Dilation Capital’s new $4.47 million position

The most concrete new development on 30 November is a fresh 13F‑style filing from Dilation Capital Management LP, disclosed by MarketBeat.

The firm initiated a new Nebius position worth approximately $4.47 million, according to the filing summary. ^[31]

This continues a trend: over the last several weeks, multiple filings have shown both new positions and trims from a wide range of institutions:

Large investors such as Orbis Allan Gray, Accel Leaders 4 Associates, Invesco, Fred Alger Management and Greenwoods have all disclosed substantial stakes built earlier in 2025. ^[32]
MarketBeat estimates that around 21.9% of Nebius shares are now held by hedge funds and institutional investors. ^[33]

Other recent filings show both buyers (Kingsview, Tableaux, Cetera, SlateStone, Left Brain Wealth Management) and sellers (Rockefeller Capital Management, Bank Julius Baer, Legal & General), illustrating that institutional money is active on both sides of the trade. ^[34]

AInvest and ts2.tech: mega deals vs mounting debt

Two recent pieces of analysis help frame the current debate:

AInvest’s “Why Nebius Stock Rallied: Partnership Impact and Cash Flow Considerations” argues that the Meta deal and Token Factory launch are powerful growth drivers but warns that Nebius’ reliance on ATM equity and contract‑linked financing raises dilution and funding‑risk questions, especially if project milestones slip or AI regulations tighten. ^[35]
A profile on ts2.tech titled “Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) Stock on November 29, 2025: 14% Weekly Rally, Mega AI Deals and Mounting Debt” highlights that the stock has rallied about 14% this week after a roughly 30% slide from recent highs, framing Nebius as a high‑beta play on AI infrastructure where leverage and capex remain central variables. TS2 Tech+1

GuruFocus & Investing.com: “Running out of runway — or about to take off”

A widely circulated article syndicated via Investing.com and written by GuruFocus carries the stark title “Nebius Is Running Out of Runway — or About to Take Off.” ^[36]

That piece:

Emphasizes the capital‑intensive nature of Nebius’ business, pointing to billions of dollars in debt and convertible notes.
Argues that Nebius sits at the intersection of critical AI demand (compute that “cannot slow down”) and the hard constraints of financing and execution.
Frames the stock as high‑risk, high‑reward, dependent on management’s ability to build data centers on time and on budget without over‑diluting shareholders.

Analyst sentiment: Strong Buy with aggressive targets

Despite the volatility, Wall Street coverage remains broadly bullish:

CoinCentral reports that Nebius stock is up 242% in 2025, with a Strong Buy consensus rating, an average price target around $164, and a top target at $175, implying roughly 70–80% upside from current levels. ^[37]
TipRanks similarly highlights Nebius as an AI infrastructure pure‑play where all six tracked analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with no formal Sell ratings. ^[38]

At the same time, other voices are more cautious. CNBC’s Jim Cramer recently told a caller that “Nebius is too speculative for me… it’s losing money,” suggesting more risk‑averse investors might prefer mature names like Dell instead. ^[39]

6. How Expensive Is Nebius Stock?

Nebius’ valuation depends heavily on which data provider and time frame one uses, in part because the company is transitioning from Yandex’s legacy financials to a pure AI‑infrastructure profile.

Different datasets show:

Trailing price‑to‑earnings ratios in the triple‑digits or not meaningful, due to net losses and quirks in how legacy earnings are consolidated. ^[40]
A one‑year share price gain of 200–330%, reflecting both multiple expansion and the repricing of Nebius as an AI infrastructure leader rather than a Russia‑exposed consumer tech stock. ^[41]

Qualitatively, recent commentary from sources like Barron’s, GuruFocus, AInvest and ts2.tech converges on a similar conclusion: Nebius is priced for rapid execution on its Microsoft and Meta contracts, continued growth in AI compute demand, and successful monetization of new platforms like Token Factory and Aether, leaving relatively little room for major missteps. ^[42]

7. Key Upside Drivers vs. Major Risks

Potential upside drivers

Structural AI compute demand Every new wave of AI models requires more compute, and Nebius aims to be one of the core utilities supplying that capacity. Articles from Reuters, 24/7 Wall St., and Investing.com all emphasize that Nebius earns when AI scales, regardless of which specific model or application wins. ^[43]
Locked‑in revenue from hyperscaler contracts Multi‑year contracts with Microsoft and Meta provide high‑visibility revenue and support management’s target of $7–9 billion in run‑rate revenue by late 2026 if capacity ramps as planned. ^[44]
Product and compliance moat The combination of Token Factory and AI Cloud 3.0 “Aether,” backed by SOC 2 Type II, HIPAA, and ISO 27001 certifications, gives Nebius a credible route into regulated industries where not every AI infrastructure provider can easily compete. ^[45]
Institutional interest and analyst support Increasing hedge‑fund ownership, plus a Strong Buy analyst consensus with high price targets, adds momentum and liquidity to the bull case, even if such sentiment can reverse quickly in a downturn. ^[46]

Major risks

Capital intensity, leverage and dilution Nebius’ business requires billions in GPUs, land and power, funded via large debt issues, convertibles and equity sales. GuruFocus, Barron’s and AInvest all stress that continued growth could require further capital raises, potentially diluting existing shareholders or pressuring the balance sheet if credit markets tighten. ^[47]
Execution risk on hyperscaler projects The Microsoft and Meta deals are huge, but they also create single‑customer concentration and delivery‑risk: missing milestones or failing to scale efficiently could trigger renegotiations or damage Nebius’ reputation in a tight‑knit AI‑infra ecosystem. ^[48]
Competitive pressure Nebius competes not just with CoreWeave and IREN, but with hyperscalers’ in‑house offerings. 24/7 Wall St. explicitly compares Nebius to alternative AI‑infrastructure plays, and several research notes ask whether newer contracts will be enough to maintain momentum as competitors expand. ^[49]
Regulatory and geopolitical overhang Aether’s compliance focus is partly a response to rapidly tightening AI regulations in the EU and elsewhere. AInvest also warns that regulators could further lengthen sales cycles and raise costs. Separately, Nebius’ origins in Yandex and its operations across multiple jurisdictions mean geopolitical risk is not entirely absent, even after the Russia split. ^[50]

8. What Today’s News Means for Nebius Stock

Bringing it all together for 30 November 2025:

Fund flows: Today’s Dilation Capital filing adds one more name to a growing list of institutions betting on Nebius as a key AI‑infrastructure winner, even as others trim or exit positions. ^[51]
Narrative: The latest round of research—from AInvest, ts2.tech, GuruFocus and TipRanks—reinforces the core narrative: Nebius has landed mega‑contracts and built ambitious platforms, but is relying on aggressive capex, leverage and equity programs to keep up with demand. ^[52]
Price action: After a ~30% slide from its highs, the stock has bounced double‑digits this week as dip‑buyers step in, but it remains highly volatile and sensitive to news on funding, regulations and capacity ramps. ^[53]

For now, Nebius Group N.V. remains exactly what many commentators call it: a high‑beta, high‑stakes pure play on the AI‑infrastructure build‑out. The contracts with Microsoft and Meta, plus new products like Token Factory and Aether, give the company a plausible path to very large revenue. Matching that vision with disciplined capital allocation and flawless execution is the challenge that will determine whether today’s hedge‑fund buying and Strong Buy ratings age well.

Why I Invested Over $100K in Nebius Stock [NBIS]