Nebius Group NV (NBIS) Stock on December 6, 2025: Price, Microsoft & Meta Megadeals, Q3 Results and 2026 Forecasts

Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) has quickly become one of the most talked‑about names in the AI infrastructure “neocloud” trade. As of December 6, 2025, the stock is well off its October peak but still massively ahead of where it started the year, with investors trying to decide whether the latest pullback is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.

At Friday’s close (December 5), Nebius traded around $98 per share, down about 4.6% on the day and roughly 30% below its 52‑week high of $141.10, yet still more than 435% above its 52‑week low near $18 in April. ^[1] That price gives Nebius a market capitalization of roughly $25 billion and implies a rich valuation of about 68× trailing revenue and nearly 200× trailing earnings. ^[2]

At the same time, Nebius has signed multi‑billion‑dollar contracts with Microsoft and Meta Platforms, posted 355% year‑on‑year revenue growth in Q3 2025, and lifted its 2025 capital expenditure target to a staggering $5 billion to keep up with demand for AI compute. ^[3]

This article rounds up the latest news, forecasts and analyses as of December 6, 2025, and explains what they might mean for current and prospective NBIS investors.

1. Nebius in a nutshell: from Yandex to “neocloud” AI infrastructure

Nebius Group N.V. is an Amsterdam‑based technology company that builds full‑stack infrastructure for artificial intelligence, including large GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers. It also owns or holds stakes in businesses such as Avride (autonomous driving), TripleTen (edtech), Toloka and ClickHouse. ^[4]

The company’s roots go back to Yandex N.V., once known as “Russia’s Google.” After a complex separation from its Russian operations, Yandex N.V. rebranded as Nebius Group N.V. in 2024 and later resumed trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker NBIS. ^[5]

Today, Nebius operates data centers and AI clusters across Europe and North America, including facilities or projects in Finland, France, Kansas City (Missouri), and Vineland, New Jersey, positioning itself as Europe’s largest “neocloud” provider – a new class of independent AI cloud operators competing with U.S. hyperscalers like Amazon, Google and Microsoft. ^[6]

2. Nebius stock today: price, performance and valuation snapshot

Price & performance (as of December 6, 2025)

Last close: about $98.04
After‑hours quote: around $97.66 on December 5
Day move: –4.6% vs previous close near $102.80
52‑week range:$18.31 – $141.10
Distance from extremes: ~30% below the high, ~435% above the low
Market cap: ≈ $24.7–25 billion
Volume: >13 million shares traded on December 5. ^[7]

Valuation metrics

According to recent market data:

Revenue (TTM): ≈ $363 million
Net income (TTM): ≈ $218 million
P/E ratio: ~199×
Price‑to‑sales (P/S): roughly 68× based on market cap vs trailing revenue. ^[8]

Those numbers underscore why Nebius is often described as a high‑growth, high‑expectations AI play: investors are effectively paying today for a future revenue base that management believes could reach $7–9 billion in annualized run‑rate revenue by the end of 2026. ^[9]

3. Latest headlines as of December 6, 2025

3.1 Hedge fund buying and Friday’s sell‑off

On December 6, 2025, MarketBeat reported that Sassicaia Capital Advisers LLC initiated a new position in Nebius, buying 25,400 shares worth about $1.4 million in Q2. The stake represents roughly 0.9% of the fund’s portfolio and makes Nebius its 16th‑largest holding. The same filing notes that institutional investors collectively own around 21.9% of NBIS stock. ^[10]

A separate MarketBeat note highlights that Nebius shares fell about 4.6% on December 5, bringing the stock roughly 30% below its recent peak and prompting the question: “Time to sell?” ^[11]

Put together, the latest data paint a familiar picture for fast‑growing AI names:

Near‑term volatility and pullbacks,
Growing institutional participation, and
A market still trying to price extremely rapid growth against equally aggressive spending.

3.2 Microsoft and Meta megadeals reshape the story

The biggest driver of the Nebius narrative in 2025 is its multi‑year, multi‑billion‑dollar backlog with U.S. tech giants.

Microsoft: $17.4–19.4 billion over five years

In September 2025, Nebius announced a five‑year AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft worth about $17.4 billion, with the potential to rise to $19.4 billion if additional services are taken up. Under the deal, Nebius will deliver high‑performance GPU capacity from its new Vineland, New Jersey data center, starting later this year. ^[12]

The contract immediately pushed Nebius shares higher by nearly 50% in a single session and underscored just how much demand there is for non‑hyperscaler AI compute capacity. ^[13]

Meta Platforms: $3 billion AI infrastructure deal

Then, in November 2025, Nebius revealed a five‑year, $3 billion agreement with Meta Platforms to supply AI infrastructure. Reuters reports that the first phase of the Meta contract is expected to start deploying within about three months, with the size of the deal constrained more by Nebius’ limited current capacity than by demand. ^[14]

Combined with the Microsoft contract, these deals have:

Helped lift Nebius’ market value to around $25–27 billion, and
Driven a 248% share price gain in 2025, making Nebius one of the standout names in AI infrastructure. ^[15]

They also significantly improve Nebius’ revenue visibility, locking in multi‑year commitments from two of the world’s largest AI spenders.

3.3 Product momentum: Nebius Token Factory and AI Cloud platform

On November 5, 2025, Nebius launched Nebius Token Factory, a platform designed to deliver production‑grade AI inference at scale. It lets enterprises run and govern open‑source models on Nebius’ dedicated AI infrastructure, unifying the full lifecycle from fine‑tuning to deployment with enterprise‑grade security and monitoring. ^[16]

Nebius has also rolled out AI Cloud 3.0 “Aether”, opened a new next‑generation UK data center, and continues to expand its European and U.S. footprint. ^[17]

For investors, these product moves matter because they:

Layer higher‑margin software and platform revenue on top of raw GPU capacity,
Potentially increase customer stickiness (once workloads are integrated with Token Factory, moving them is harder), and
Strengthen Nebius’ positioning as a full‑stack AI infrastructure provider, not just a GPU landlord.

3.4 Capital raising and a huge jump in capex

Rapid growth has a price, and for Nebius that price shows up in capital expenditures and funding activity.

$1 billion share offering + convertible notes = $4.2 billion raised

On September 10, 2025, Nebius priced a $1 billion public offering of Class A ordinary shares at $92.50 per share. A few days later, the company confirmed the closing of this offering and a concurrent convertible senior notes placement, bringing aggregate gross proceeds to about $4.2 billion. ^[18]

The convertible notes, maturing in 2030 and 2032, and the added equity give Nebius a substantial war chest to fund data center build‑outs and GPU purchases – but they also introduce dilution and leverage risk that equity analysts are watching closely. ^[19]

Capex guidance raised to $5 billion for 2025

In early November, Nebius disclosed that it has raised its 2025 capital expenditure plan from around $2 billion to about $5 billion, as it accelerates spending on AI infrastructure to meet demand. Zacks/Nasdaq commentary notes that this dramatic capex spike may weigh on Nebius’ ability to hit its target of roughly EBITDA‑breakeven by year‑end, even as revenue soars. ^[20]

Reuters adds that, following the Microsoft deal, Nebius has raised $4.2 billion and is working to secure around 2.5 GW of power capacity by 2026, underscoring the capital‑intensive nature of AI data centers. ^[21]

4. Q3 2025 results: 355% revenue growth, but losses and cash burn remain heavy

Nebius reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 11, 2025, offering one of the clearest snapshots of where the business stands.

4.1 Revenue and ARR

Key headline numbers:

Q3 2025 revenue:$146.1 million,
- Up 355% year‑on‑year, and
- Up roughly 39% quarter‑on‑quarter from Q2 revenue of $105.1 million. ^[22]
Annualized run‑rate revenue (ARR): around $551 million as of September 30, 2025. ^[23]
Guidance: management reaffirmed ARR targets of $900 million–$1.1 billion by the end of 2025, and longer‑term ambitions of $7–9 billion in ARR by end‑2026, largely supported by the Microsoft and Meta contracts and presold capacity. ^[24]

4.2 Profitability, losses and capex

The growth comes with steep costs:

Adjusted net loss: about $100.4 million in Q3 2025, more than double the roughly $39.7 million adjusted loss a year earlier. ^[25]
Capex in Q3 alone surged to roughly $955 million, directed at GPUs, land, power and new data center construction. ^[26]
Earlier in 2025, Nebius reported that its core AI infrastructure business achieved positive adjusted EBITDA ahead of plan, but on a consolidated basis it remains EBITDA‑negative as it pours cash into expansion. ^[27]

Market reaction to Q3 was mixed:

Some investors focused on the revenue miss vs. analyst expectations (consensus had been around $155 million), the widened loss, and the announcement of an at‑the‑market equity program of up to 25 million shares – all of which raised dilution concerns. ^[28]
Others emphasized the sold‑out existing capacity, the megadeals with Microsoft and Meta, and the long‑term ARR targets, viewing the post‑earnings dip as an opportunity. ^[29]

5. What Wall Street expects now: ratings and price targets

Despite volatility, Wall Street remains broadly bullish on Nebius as of early December 2025.

Across several platforms, 6–7 analysts currently cover NBIS, with a consensus rating of “Strong Buy.” ^[30]
Average 12‑month price target: in the $157–164 range, implying around 60% upside from the current ~$98 level. ^[31]
Target range:
- High: about $211 per share,
- Low: roughly $110–130, depending on the source. ^[32]

Recent analyst and commentator themes include:

Bullish arguments

Nebius is an early‑stage AI cloud leader with “sold‑out” data center capacity and a multi‑year revenue backlog from Microsoft, Meta and other large customers. ^[33]
The stock has already gained more than 200% in 2025, but some analysts argue that the 2026 ARR ramp is still under‑appreciated, especially if Nebius executes on its power and capacity roadmap. ^[34]
Compared with other “neocloud” names like CoreWeave and IREN, Nebius is often viewed as relatively less leveraged, while still enjoying similar or higher growth rates. ^[35]

Bearish / cautious arguments

The combination of $5 billion in 2025 capex, heavy operating losses, and ongoing cash burn raises questions about funding needs, dilution and return on invested capital. ^[36]
Barron’s and others warn about a potential “neocloud” bubble, where valuations for AI infrastructure providers depend on long‑term demand staying extremely strong and contracts remaining intact. ^[37]
Nebius trades at very high revenue and earnings multiples, leaving little room for execution missteps, cost overruns, or a slowdown in AI spending. ^[38]

6. Key risks Nebius investors are watching

Based on recent coverage and filings, several risk themes stand out:

Capital intensity and financing risk
- Nebius is rapidly scaling data center capacity and GPU fleets, with capex planned at $5 billion in 2025 alone and a goal of securing 2.5 GW of power capacity by 2026. ^[39]
- That requires enormous upfront cash, pushing the company toward equity offerings, convertible notes and potentially more debt, which could dilute existing shareholders or pressure the balance sheet.
Profitability and cash burn
- Even with triple‑digit revenue growth, Nebius is still losing around $100 million per quarter on an adjusted basis, and operating cash flows remain deeply negative as working capital and investment ramp up. ^[40]
- Analysts debate whether Nebius can realistically approach EBITDA breakeven in 2025 while simultaneously tripling its capex plan.
Customer concentration and contract execution
- Deals with Microsoft and Meta are transformative but also mean that a large portion of future revenue is tied to a small number of hyperscale clients. Any delay, renegotiation, or cancellation would materially impact forecasts. ^[41]
Competitive landscape and AI demand risk
- Nebius competes with tech giants (Amazon, Google, Microsoft) and neocloud peers like CoreWeave and IREN. If AI demand normalizes or if hyperscalers reclaim market share, pricing pressure could emerge. ^[42]
- A broader AI infrastructure overbuild could leave the industry with excess capacity and lower utilization rates.
Regulatory and infrastructure constraints
- Large data centers depend on power, land, and environmental approvals. European and U.S. regulators are increasingly focused on the energy footprint of AI workloads, which could slow Nebius’ expansion or raise costs. ^[43]

7. Why some see Nebius as the “pure‑play AI infrastructure” bet

Supporters often frame Nebius as a way to play AI demand without betting on any single model or application.

Recent commentary emphasizes that:

Nebius’ capacity is effectively sold out, and even new capacity is being pre‑sold ahead of deployment. ^[44]
Its infrastructure underpins workloads from a mix of AI‑native companies and traditional enterprises in industries like manufacturing, banking and retail, spreading demand across sectors. ^[45]
Some analysts and commentators even argue Nebius has outperformed marquee chip names like Nvidia in share price terms over the past year, with a potentially longer runway if it hits its 2026 ARR targets. ^[46]

However, even bullish voices generally stress that this is a high‑risk, high‑volatility story suited to investors who can tolerate sharp drawdowns and execution risk.

8. What to watch next

For readers following Nebius Group N.V. from here, key upcoming catalysts and checkpoints include:

Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance
- Confirmation that revenue growth remains strong and that Nebius is still tracking toward $900m–$1.1b ARR by end‑2025. ^[47]
- Updated commentary on EBITDA trajectory, given the higher capex plan.
Ramp of Microsoft and Meta deals
- Evidence that the Vineland, NJ data center and other sites are coming online as scheduled.
- Data points on utilization, pricing and margins for these hyperscaler contracts. ^[48]
New capacity announcements and power contracts
- Additional data center locations, power purchase agreements, and partnerships that support the path to 2.5 GW of power by 2026. ^[49]
Further capital markets activity
- Any new share issuances, convertible offerings or debt financings that could change the equity story – positively (more growth) or negatively (dilution/over‑leverage). ^[50]
Sector sentiment around “neocloud” stocks
- Barron’s and others have framed the recent pullback across Nebius, CoreWeave and IREN as either a buy‑the‑dip opportunity or a sign of investors reassessing the AI infrastructure boom. How that debate evolves will likely influence NBIS’ multiples as much as company‑specific news. ^[51]

9. Bottom line: Nebius on December 6, 2025

As of December 6, 2025, Nebius Group N.V. sits at a crossroads:

The stock has corrected about 30% from its October highs but remains up well over 200% in 2025, with a valuation that already prices in substantial future growth. ^[52]
The company has built a multi‑year backlog with top‑tier customers like Microsoft and Meta, is launching higher‑value offerings like Token Factory, and is marching toward ambitious ARR targets for 2025 and 2026. ^[53]
At the same time, Nebius is spending aggressively, with $5 billion in capex planned for 2025 and ongoing losses and cash burn that introduce meaningful financing and execution risk. ^[54]
Wall Street’s current consensus of “Strong Buy” and a 60%‑plus implied upside reflects confidence that Nebius will scale into its capacity and backlog – but those forecasts depend on AI demand staying robust and management hitting very demanding targets. ^[55]

For investors and traders following Nebius, the stock remains a pure‑play, high‑beta proxy on AI infrastructure growth. The latest news from December 6, 2025 adds fresh institutional buying to a story already dominated by megadeals, massive build‑outs and spirited debate over whether the current “neocloud” pullback is a temporary shake‑out or the start of a more fundamental repricing.

As always, this overview is informational only and not personalized investment advice. Anyone considering NBIS should carefully review the company’s official filings, earnings materials and their own risk tolerance before making decisions.