Nebius Stock (NBIS) on December 2, 2025: AI Mega‑Deals, 250% Rally and What Wall Street Expects Next

Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) is back in the spotlight on December 2, 2025, as the AI‑infrastructure stock trades around the $100 mark after a year of explosive gains, violent pullbacks, and game‑changing cloud contracts with Microsoft and Meta Platforms. ^[1]

Fresh coverage today from Motley Fool, InvestorsObserver, Benzinga and Simply Wall St is sharpening the debate: is Nebius stock still an under‑appreciated AI infrastructure play, or a high‑beta name priced for perfection?

Nebius stock today: price, performance and volatility

As of midday on December 2, 2025, Nebius stock is trading just under $100 per share, with intraday quotes in roughly the $99–102 range. ^[2]

Key snapshot metrics:

• Share price: about $99–100
• Market cap: roughly $24–25 billion ^[3]
• 52‑week range: $18.31–$141.10 (the high is ~40–50% above today’s level) ^[4]
• 1‑year performance: up ~230–300% depending on data provider ^[5]
• YTD performance: around +250–260% ^[6]
• Short interest: about 26 million shares, or ~10–12% of the float, with ~1–1.3 days to cover ^[7]
• Volatility: average weekly move near 18%, far above the broader U.S. market (~6–7%) ^[8]

In other words, Nebius stock has already delivered “multi‑bagger” returns since its relisting, but it also behaves like a high‑powered leveraged bet on AI infrastructure sentiment.

From Yandex offshoot to AI infrastructure pure‑play

Nebius is not a typical Silicon Valley start‑up. The company is the renamed and refocused Dutch parent of Yandex N.V., which sold all of its Russian operations in 2024 following sanctions and geopolitical pressure. ^[9]

Key milestones:

• 1997–2023: Yandex grows into “Russia’s Google” and lists on Nasdaq.
• February 2022: Nasdaq suspends trading of Yandex N.V. amid the war in Ukraine. ^[10]
• July 2024: Russian assets are sold to a local consortium; the non‑Russian businesses are reoriented around AI infrastructure. ^[11]
• August–October 2024: Yandex N.V. is renamed Nebius Group N.V., headquartered in Amsterdam, and resumes Nasdaq trading under ticker NBIS. ^[12]

Today Nebius:

• Operates large AI data centers in Finland, France and North America, with a 300MW facility under construction in Vineland, New Jersey. ^[13]
• Runs Nebius AI Cloud, a full‑stack GPU cloud built around Nvidia hardware for training and inference. ^[14]
• Owns or holds stakes in Avride, TripleTen, Toloka and ClickHouse, although the market mostly values it as an AI‑infrastructure pure‑play. ^[15]

This unusual history explains why a “new” AI stock can already have billions in revenue commitments and a multi‑decade trading history behind the corporate shell.

Q3 2025 earnings: four‑fold revenue jump, heavy losses

Nebius’ latest reported quarter (Q3 2025) is the foundation of most current analysis:

• Revenue: $146.1 million, up 355% year over year and ~39% quarter‑over‑quarter. ^[16]
• ARR (annualized revenue run rate): about $551 million at quarter‑end. ^[17]
• Net loss: more than $100 million, with adjusted losses close to $120 million, wider than a year earlier. ^[18]
• Capex: $955.5 million in the quarter versus $172.1 million a year ago, as Nebius races to secure GPUs, land and power. ^[19]

The company has also tightened 2025 revenue guidance to $500–550 million (from $450–630m) and now expects adjusted EBITDA to turn slightly positive by year‑end 2025, though still negative for the full year. ^[20]

For 2025 and 2026, Nebius is targeting:

• 2025 ARR: $900 million–$1.1 billion. ^[21]
• 2026 ARR: $7–9 billion, implying a 6–8× jump in run‑rate revenue as new capacity comes online. ^[22]

Those numbers are at the heart of today’s bullish and bearish arguments.

AI mega‑deals with Microsoft and Meta

Nebius’ rally has been driven by two blockbuster cloud contracts:

1. Microsoft deal – up to $19.4 billion
   • A multi‑year agreement to provide AI infrastructure from Nebius’ new Vineland, New Jersey data center and other sites.
   • Reuters and other outlets describe the base value around $17.4 billion, expandable to $19.4 billion over five years. ^[23]
2. Meta deal – $3 billion over five years
   • In November, Nebius announced a $3 billion agreement to supply Meta Platforms with AI infrastructure over five years. ^[24]
   • The contract kicked off alongside Q3 results, which showed surging capex and losses despite quadruple‑digit revenue growth. ^[25]

According to Reuters, the Meta contract is Nebius’ second major “hyperscaler” win after Microsoft, and the company said demand was so strong that the Meta deal had to be capped at the capacity it could actually deliver in the near term. ^[26]

New analysis from Motley Fool today stresses that Nebius has already sold all current AI capacity and pre‑sold new capacity in markets like Israel and the UK even before those regions launch, positioning the firm as a beneficiary of a structural supply shortage in AI‑optimized data centers. ^[27]

New platforms: Token Factory and Aether 3.0

Nebius is also trying to move “up the stack” so it isn’t just renting raw GPUs:

• Nebius Token Factory
  Launched on 5 November 2025, this is a production‑grade inference platform that lets enterprises deploy and optimize open‑source and custom models (Llama, DeepSeek, Qwen, Mistral and others) on Nebius’ GPU cloud with 99.9% uptime and sub‑second latency. TechStock²+1
• Nebius AI Cloud 3.0 “Aether”
  Rolled out in October with a heavy focus on compliance and security – SOC 2 Type II (including HIPAA), ISO 27001 and alignment with emerging EU frameworks like NIS2 and DORA – targeting banks, healthcare systems and government agencies. TechStock²

Independent coverage from TS2, Bloomberg and GuruFocus frames these products as an attempt to build a higher‑margin, software‑rich platform on top of Nebius’ hardware footprint, which could deepen customer lock‑in if adoption grows. TechStock²+2GuruFocus+2

Fresh coverage on December 2, 2025: what’s new today

1. InvestorsObserver: the “wild rise” of Nebius stock

A new feature at InvestorsObserver published today tracks Nebius’ journey “from exile to AI kingmaker.” Key takeaways: ^[28]

• Since resuming Nasdaq trading in October 2024, NBIS shares have climbed more than 380%, with most of the gain in 2025.
• The article highlights the $19.4 billion Microsoft deal and $3 billion Meta contract, noting that Nebius’ available capacity is now “nearly fully booked.”
• It estimates Nebius has raised about $4.3 billion in 2025 via convertible notes and equity, giving it cash to build new data centers but also raising concerns about leverage and dilution.
• Institutional ownership has climbed to roughly 22%, with firms like PNC Financial Services, LRI Investments and Farther Finance increasing their positions.

The tone: high‑growth, high‑risk, fueled by mega‑contracts and equally mega‑sized capital spending.

2. Motley Fool: “The AI stock that’s secretly crushing Nvidia”

A widely shared Motley Fool piece (syndicated via Finviz) argues that Nebius is “secretly crushing Nvidia” — at least in share‑price performance: ^[29]

• Nebius stock is up over 350% in the past year versus roughly 30% for Nvidia.
• The article credits:
  • Megadeals with Microsoft and Meta.
  • 355% year‑over‑year Q3 revenue growth and 400% growth in core AI infrastructure revenue.
  • The fact that Nebius has already sold out existing capacity and pre‑sold future capacity.
• It also notes that Nebius has raised its 2025 capex guidance from $2 billion to $5 billion and plans to reach 2.5 gigawatts of contracted power by 2026, with 800MW–1GW of connected capacity, underlining how capital‑intensive the strategy is. ^[30]

The message: Nebius stock could continue to outperform if the AI data center shortage persists — but its volatility and massive capex needs make it riskier than Nvidia.

3. Benzinga: unusual options activity in Nebius

A new Benzinga options‑flow report this morning flags a surge in bullish options trades on NBIS: ^[31]

• The service recorded 21 unusual trades, 19 of them calls and just 2 puts, with calls worth roughly $1.28 million in notional value.
• Big “call sweep” orders targeted strikes around $100–120 out to 2026–2027, suggesting some large traders are positioning for upside.
• Benzinga says the major market players have focused on strikes between $64 and $200 over the past three months, highlighting how wide the perceived outcome range still is.
• The same note reports that five analysts in the last month give Nebius an average price target of about $161.8, with specific targets ranging from $130 to $211.

Options traders, in other words, are treating Nebius as a high‑volatility growth stock with sizable upside potential — and plenty of room for swings.

4. Simply Wall St: new fair‑value estimate points to 37% upside

A December 2 update from Simply Wall St looks at Nebius’ recent volatility and valuation: ^[32]

• Nebius is up 228% year‑to‑date and 289% over the past year, but fell about 23% in the last 30 days after an earlier blow‑off move.
• Using its DCF‑based model, the service estimates fair value around $159 per share versus the $100.15 last close, implying roughly 37% upside and labeling the stock “UNDERVALUED” under that narrative.
• It notes Nebius trades at about 5× price‑to‑book, higher than the U.S. software industry average (~3.4×) but cheaper than a selected peer group (~10.8×).

Simply Wall St’s conclusion: the stock could be materially undervalued if growth and margins unfold as modeled — but the assumptions are bold and the competitive and regulatory risks are non‑trivial.

Nebius stock forecast: what Wall Street is pricing in

Across major data platforms, the consensus Nebius stock forecast remains bullish, even after the autumn sell‑off:

• MarketBeat:
  • 11 analysts, overall rating “Buy” (2 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 2 Hold).
  • Average 12‑month target: about $144.7, ~45–50% above recent prices. ^[33]
• TipRanks:
  • 6 analysts, consensus “Strong Buy” (5 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell).
  • Average target: $164.2, high $211, low $130 — roughly 70% upside from the sub‑$100 levels seen in late November. ^[34]
• Investing.com:
  • 7 analysts, consensus “Strong Buy”.
  • Average target: around $163, high $211, low $110. ^[35]
• Benzinga (latest options note):
  • Average of $161.8 from five recent analyst reports, with updated targets such as $211 (Northland), $175 (Citizens), $150 (DA Davidson), $143 (CICC) and $130 (BWS Financial). ^[36]

While methodologies differ, most traditional analysts still see meaningful upside from today’s price — but almost all of them also stress the risks around execution, funding and competition.

Valuation, leverage and short interest: why Nebius remains controversial

Even bullish write‑ups tend to include a long risk section, and for good reason:

• Capital intensity & dilution risk
  • Zacks, TS2 and GuruFocus all emphasize that Nebius has raised capex guidance for 2025 from ~$2 billion to around $5 billion and is relying heavily on convertible notes, equity offerings and an at‑the‑market (ATM) share program to fund growth. ^[37]
  • The September 2025 capital raise alone brought in about $4.2 billion in gross proceeds from a $1 billion Class A share offering at $92.50 plus $2.75 billion in convertible notes, according to the company. ^[38]
• Leverage & earnings profile
  • GuruFocus and TS2 describe Nebius as sitting at the intersection of “borrowed billions” and surging AI demand — a potentially explosive mix if conditions change. TechStock²+1
  • Some data providers still show negative earnings and a deeply negative P/E, while others now show a triple‑digit P/E due to accounting quirks and legacy Yandex results. Analysts therefore focus more on price‑to‑sales, EV/ARR and capex‑to‑revenue metrics than on trailing P/E. ^[39]
• Short interest & volatility
  • With 10–13% of the float sold short and a one‑year gain north of 200%, Nebius has become a target for both momentum bulls and skeptical shorts. ^[40]
  • Simply Wall St estimates Nebius’ share price has swung ~23% down in just 30 days, and its weekly volatility (~18%) is well above the already‑choppy software sector. ^[41]
• Customer concentration & competition
  • A large share of future revenue is tied to Microsoft and Meta, leaving Nebius exposed to contract execution and renewal risk. ^[42]
  • It also competes directly with CoreWeave, IREN and the hyperscalers’ own AI infrastructure, which are investing aggressively and signing their own big deals. ^[43]

It’s no surprise that some commentators, including CNBC’s Jim Cramer, have publicly labeled Nebius “too speculative” for conservative investors. TechStock²

The bull case vs. the bear case for Nebius stock

Bringing together recent coverage from TS2, Seeking Alpha, 24/7 Wall St., Nasdaq and others, the Nebius debate falls into two clear narratives. Nasdaq+4TechStock²+4Seeking Alpha+4

Bull case: a leveraged play on the AI compute super‑cycle

Supporters highlight:

1. Locked‑in, multi‑year revenue
   • Mega‑contracts with Microsoft and Meta provide multi‑billion‑dollar commitments that could underpin ARR growth to $7–9 billion by 2026 if Nebius executes. ^[44]
2. Explosive top‑line growth
   • Q3 revenue grew 355% year‑over‑year, and several analysts see Nebius as one of the fastest‑growing AI infrastructure names in the market. ^[45]
3. Product stack and compliance moat
   • Token Factory and Aether 3.0 give Nebius a route into regulated industries (finance, healthcare, government) where not every AI cloud provider can meet compliance needs. TechStock²+1
4. Strong institutional & analyst support
   • Rising hedge‑fund and asset‑manager ownership, “Strong Buy” consensus ratings and high price targets all reinforce the bullish narrative, even after the recent drawdown. ^[46]

Bear (or cautious) case: funding risk and hype at full throttle

Skeptics focus on:

1. Financing dependence & dilution
   • A capital‑intensive model funded by convertibles, share offerings and an ATM program leaves Nebius exposed if credit markets tighten or its share price falls sharply, potentially forcing dilutive equity raises. ^[47]
2. Execution risk on hyperscaler deals
   • Failing to deliver contracted capacity on time, at the promised efficiency and uptime, could trigger renegotiations or reputational damage in a small, competitive ecosystem. ^[48]
3. Valuation and volatility
   • Even after a roughly 30% pullback from its October peak, Nebius trades at high multiples of current revenue and is prone to double‑digit daily moves, making timing especially important for short‑term traders. TechStock²+2MacroTrends+2
4. AI cycle risk
   • If AI infrastructure spending slows, or if technology shifts reduce the need for massive GPU clusters, Nebius could be left with over‑built, under‑utilized data centers and a heavy debt load. TechStock²+2Seeking Alpha+2

What to watch next for Nebius stock

Heading into 2026, recent reports point to several key catalysts and risk factors for NBIS: ^[49]

• Capacity build‑out milestones
  • Progress toward 2.5GW contracted power and 800MW–1GW of connected capacity by late 2026.
• ARR trajectory vs. targets
  • Whether Nebius can move from $551m ARR to the $900m–1.1bn 2025 goal and put the $7–9bn 2026 target within reach.
• Path to profitability
  • Investors will closely watch whether adjusted EBITDA actually turns positive by late 2025 and how quickly cash burn moderates thereafter.
• Further large contracts or product wins
  • Additional hyperscaler, enterprise or government deals for Token Factory and Aether could support the bull case.
• Funding moves and balance sheet changes
  • Any new debt or equity issuance — or, conversely, evidence of self‑funded growth — will likely move the stock.
• Sector sentiment and macro conditions
  • As a high‑beta AI stock with double‑digit short interest, Nebius tends to amplify whatever the broader AI and rates narrative is doing.

Bottom line

Nebius stock on December 2, 2025 sits near $100 after an extraordinary year in which the company transformed itself into a European AI‑infrastructure champion, signed multi‑billion‑dollar deals with Microsoft and Meta, launched new AI platforms, and raised billions to fund an aggressive global build‑out.

Most Wall Street analysts and many institutional investors still see significant upside over the next 12 months — but that upside is explicitly tied to Nebius executing near‑flawlessly on its capacity expansion and mega‑contracts while navigating heavy capex, competition and a still‑evolving regulatory landscape.

For investors, Nebius today looks less like a sleepy cloud utility and more like what multiple commentators have called it: a high‑stakes, high‑volatility pure play on the AI data center boom.

This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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