Netflix (NFLX) Stock Today, December 10, 2025: Warner Bros. Discovery Bid, Lawsuit Risks, and 2026 Price Targets

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) stock is trading around $97 per share in midday trading on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, up modestly year to date but well below its summer highs. Behind the recent volatility is one of the most consequential media deals in years: Netflix’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), a wave of fresh analyst calls, and new scrutiny of its balance sheet and market power. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into what’s happening with Netflix stock right now, how Wall Street is reacting, and what current forecasts suggest for 2026 and beyond.

Netflix Stock Snapshot After the Split

Netflix completed a 10‑for‑1 stock split in November 2025. Each shareholder of record as of November 10 received nine additional shares for every one share held, with trading beginning on a split‑adjusted basis on November 17. ^[2]

On that split‑adjusted basis:

Current price: about $96–97 per share as of December 10
5‑day performance: roughly ‑3.5%
1‑month performance: around ‑13–14%
3‑month performance: about ‑22%
Year‑to‑date performance: still +8.5%, and about +6% over the past year ^[3]

In other words, Netflix remains a long‑term winner but is in a near‑term drawdown as investors digest a highly leveraged megadeal and a changing competitive landscape.

The Warner Bros. Discovery Megadeal: Why It Matters for NFLX

Netflix has agreed to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming operations—including HBO and Max—in a transaction valued at about $72 billion in equity value and roughly $82.7 billion in enterprise value, paid in a mix of cash and stock. ^[4]

If completed, the combination would:

Add Warner Bros. studios, HBO, and other premium brands to Netflix’s library
Fold HBO Max into Netflix’s streaming footprint, consolidating two of the strongest scripted‑content portfolios in the world
Leave many of Warner’s legacy cable assets outside the deal structure (depending on final terms) ^[5]

Analysts see enormous strategic upside: the merged company would control a deep vault of franchises—from “Game of Thrones” and DC Comics to major film IP—and could offer powerful content bundles spanning ad‑supported and premium tiers.

At the same time, the deal has triggered immediate concerns about competition, leverage, and execution.

A Bidding War and a New Lawsuit

The WBD deal is no longer a simple bilateral negotiation:

Paramount Skydance has launched a competing hostile bid worth about $108.4 billion for Warner Bros. Discovery, positioning itself as a more “regulator‑friendly” alternative and arguing that WBD’s board is unfairly favoring Netflix. ^[6]
On December 9, a consumer class‑action lawsuit was filed in U.S. federal court seeking to block Netflix’s proposed $72 billion acquisition, arguing it would reduce competition in U.S. streaming by absorbing HBO Max and handing Netflix control over marquee franchises like Harry Potter and Game of Thrones. ^[7]

The lawsuit, brought by an HBO Max subscriber and handled by antitrust‑specialist firm Bathaee Dunne, faces high legal hurdles—consumer merger challenges rarely succeed—but it adds to the cloud of uncertainty around closing. ^[8]

Meanwhile, regulators and politicians are circling:

The Financial Times notes that a combined Netflix‑WBD could hold around 31% of streaming subscriptions and 35% of viewing time, depending on how the market is defined, inviting a major antitrust review. ^[9]
Members of Congress have already questioned whether the merger would leave too much power in the hands of one streaming giant. ^[10]

For shareholders, the takeaway is clear: deal risk is high, timelines are uncertain, and Netflix could be drawn into a long regulatory and legal battle even if the economics look compelling on paper.

Debt, Credit Ratings, and the “Balance‑Sheet Overhang”

The most immediate worry for the bond market isn’t content—it’s debt.

According to research cited by Barron’s, Netflix’s planned acquisition would involve: ^[11]

Assuming nearly $11 billion of existing Warner Bros. Discovery debt, and
Raising roughly $50 billion of new debt to fund the mostly cash portion of the deal.

Credit analysts at Gimme Credit now estimate that, if the deal closes on those terms, Netflix’s debt‑to‑EBITDA could jump from about 1.1x to over 4x, a level more typical of junk‑rated media companies than a single‑A credit. That prompted them to downgrade Netflix’s debt to “Underperform”, and they warn that the deal could put pressure on the company’s investment‑grade ratings at Moody’s and S&P. ^[12]

Layer that on top of Netflix’s existing commitments:

Management still wants to reduce leverage over time
Continue share repurchases, and
Maintain aggressive content spending, currently around $18 billion per year. ^[13]

The result is a narrative divide:

Bulls argue that Netflix’s roughly $9 billion in 2025 free cash flow gives it plenty of room to digest WBD over time while still rewarding shareholders. ^[14]
Bears counter that adding tens of billions in new debt at this stage of the streaming war is an unnecessary gamble that could backfire if growth slows or the regulatory process drags on. Several independent analysts on platforms like Seeking Alpha have gone as far as arguing the deal is a reason to sell NFLX. ^[15]

Either way, the balance sheet has moved from a quiet strength to a central debating point in the Netflix thesis.

Core Business Checkup: Q3 2025 Earnings and Subscriber Trends

Beneath the deal noise, Netflix’s underlying business remains strong—though investors have become more demanding.

In Q3 2025, Netflix reported:

Revenue of about $11.5 billion, up ~17% year over year ^[16]
Net income of roughly $2.55 billion and operating income of about $3.25 billion ^[17]
Free cash flow of $2.7 billion for the quarter, versus $2.2 billion a year earlier, and updated full‑year 2025 FCF guidance of around $9 billion (plus or minus a few hundred million). ^[18]

Subscriber momentum is still healthy:

Netflix has about 301–302 million global subscribers as of August 2025, up nearly 16% from roughly 260 million at the end of 2023. ^[19]

Yet despite that, the Q3 report triggered a sell‑off:

A one‑time tax charge in Brazil weighed on margins, pushing operating margin down to about 28.2% versus an expected 31%, and investors—used to upside surprises—were disappointed. ^[20]

The key message: Netflix is still growing revenue, profits, and cash flow at double‑digit rates, but the market is now laser‑focused on margins, capital allocation, and deal risk rather than subscriber counts alone.

Ad‑Supported Tier: From Experiment to Growth Engine

One of the biggest structural shifts in Netflix’s business is its ad‑supported tier.

Recent disclosures and third‑party estimates suggest that:

The ad‑supported plan has about 94 million monthly active users as of 2025, up sharply from around 40 million in mid‑2024. ^[21]
In countries where it’s available, roughly 40–50% of new sign‑ups now choose the ad‑tier, underscoring consumer appetite for lower prices in exchange for ads. ^[22]
Netflix says its ads reached 190 million viewers in October 2025, and industry forecasts suggest ad revenue could more than double in 2025 to roughly $2.9 billion, then grow another 45% to about $4.2 billion in 2026. ^[23]

Q3 commentary and external analyses also highlight:

Ad revenue more than doubled in 2025
U.S. upfront ad commitments also doubled
Netflix reached record viewing share of 8.6% in the U.S. and 9.4% in the U.K. in the quarter, suggesting the ad tier is growing without cannibalizing engagement. ^[24]

For investors, the ad business is increasingly seen as the second engine of Netflix’s growth—one that could help justify premium valuation multiples if it continues scaling.

Beyond Streaming: Sports, Live Events, and Gaming

Netflix is no longer “just” a streaming service.

Live Sports and Events

Over the past two years Netflix has:

Hosted marquee events like the Mike Tyson–Jake Paul boxing match, which drew about 108 million viewers and over 65 million concurrent households at its peak—described as one of the most‑streamed sporting events ever. ^[25]
Partnered on Christmas Day NFL games, and is reportedly exploring bids for UEFA Champions League rights, potentially expanding its sports footprint in Europe and other regions. ^[26]

SportsBusiness Journal describes Netflix’s sports rights strategy as aiming for “big, memorable” events while avoiding the constant churn of regular‑season packages—making it an “anti‑ESPN” that can selectively outspend rivals on tentpole moments. ^[27]

These initiatives don’t yet move the revenue needle, but they significantly deepen engagement, open up advertising and sponsorship dollars, and reinforce Netflix’s positioning as a global event platform.

Gaming and Experiences

On the gaming side:

Netflix has invested roughly $1 billion building a gaming arm, including multiple studio acquisitions, and now offers 120+ mobile games, from GTA: San Andreas to titles based on its own IP like Squid Game. ^[28]
However, according to research cited by Reuters, games have increased total viewing time by less than 0.5%, meaning the financial impact remains minimal. ^[29]

A recent Nasdaq/Motley Fool analysis characterizes gaming, immersive venues, and live sports as long‑term optionality rather than core profit drivers today—valuable for diversifying revenue over the next decade, but not central to the current valuation. ^[30]

What Wall Street Is Saying: Ratings, Targets, and Forecasts

Despite the recent pullback and deal controversy, most analysts remain positive on Netflix stock—but with a growing spread between bulls and skeptics.

Analyst Ratings and 12‑Month Targets

According to MarketBeat and other aggregators as of December 10, 2025: ^[31]

Overall consensus rating: “Moderate/Buy” to “Buy”
Approximate breakdown:
- 2 analysts: Strong Buy
- Around 29: Buy
- About 13: Hold
- 1: Sell
Average 12‑month price targets cluster around $131–135, implying roughly 35% upside from the current ~$97 share price.
Target range is wide:
- High: about $152–153
- Low: around $77–88

Recent moves include:

Needham reiterating a Buy with a $150 target, implying ~55% upside. ^[32]
UBS maintaining a Buy and $150 target. ^[33]
Canaccord Genuity keeping a Buy with a $152–153 target. ^[34]
Pivotal Research and Rosenblatt both downgrading from Buy to Hold, cutting targets from $152–160 down to $105, reflecting concerns about the Warner deal’s leverage and risk profile. ^[35]

Third‑party quant and forecast platforms also show strong implied upside:

TradingView/GuruFocus cites an average target around $130.80 from 42 analysts, implying roughly +35% upside from ~$96.71. ^[36]
24/7 Wall St. notes a consensus target of $134.44, and its own scenario analysis projects Netflix at $121.54 by the end of 2025, rising to approximately $143–189 through 2029 and $222 by 2030, assuming sustained double‑digit revenue growth and strong margins. ^[37]

None of these are guarantees, but they illustrate Wall Street’s prevailing view: the Street still expects Netflix to be worth more in 12–60 months than it is today, though opinions differ sharply on how smooth that path will be.

Revenue, Earnings, and Long‑Term Growth

Consensus forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis and StocksGuide suggest: ^[38]

Revenue:
- 2024: about $39 billion
- 2025: around $46 billion (+~18%)
- 2026: roughly $52 billion (+~13%)
Earnings per share (split‑adjusted):
- 2024: about $1.98
- 2025: around $2.60
- 2026: roughly $3.30, implying EPS growth of 25–30% per year
Net profit:
- 2024: ~$8.7 billion
- 2025: ~$11 billion
- 2026: ~$14 billion

Longer‑term models (out to 2030–2032) assume Netflix can sustain high‑single to low‑double‑digit annual revenue growth and steadily expand margins, particularly as advertising and higher‑margin content categories scale.

Why Netflix Stock Has Pulled Back Despite Strong Fundamentals

If revenue, subscribers, and free cash flow are all growing, why has NFLX fallen from above $130 (pre‑pullback) to the mid‑$90s?

Several factors are at play:

Deal Overhang
- The Warner Bros. Discovery bid introduces huge uncertainty: size, timing, integration, and regulatory approval are all in question.
- Credit‑rating concerns and the prospect of a bidding war with Paramount Skydance add risk. ^[39]
Valuation Compression
- Even after the pullback, NFLX trades at a premium on metrics like price‑to‑earnings and EV/sales versus the broader market. Some investors are reluctant to pay up while mega‑deal risk is unresolved. ^[40]
Higher Expectations After the Split
- The 10‑for‑1 split brought the per‑share price into a more retail‑friendly range, often a sentiment booster—but expectations for continuous outperformance also rose, making any earnings miss or controversial deal more painful. ^[41]
Macro and Sector Rotation
- With rates still elevated and AI‑heavy tech stocks dominating headlines, some investors have rotated away from “mature” growth names like Netflix into perceived higher‑beta AI plays, regardless of Netflix’s fundamentals.

Key Upside Catalysts vs. Risks for NFLX

Potential Upside Catalysts

Successful WBD acquisition that:
- Clears regulators with manageable concessions
- Unlocks cost synergies and cross‑franchise opportunities
- Strengthens Netflix’s already dominant scripted‑content lineup
Continued ad‑tier growth, especially if Netflix’s new generative‑AI ad formats and Amazon ad‑tech partnership deliver higher CPMs and better targeting. ^[42]
Sports and live events becoming a repeatable driver of subscriber acquisition, retention, and premium ad inventory. ^[43]
Margin expansion as Netflix continues to leverage its massive scale, optimizes content spend, and grows high‑margin ad revenue.

Key Risks

Regulatory and legal uncertainty around the WBD deal, including antitrust review and the new consumer class action. ^[44]
Debt load and potential ratings pressure if leverage spikes to 4x EBITDA and stays there longer than planned. ^[45]
Integration risk—merging cultures, tech stacks, and brands from two large, complex organizations.
Competition from Disney, Amazon, YouTube, and regional streamers, which could push up content costs and cap pricing power. ^[46]
Gaming and new initiatives failing to scale financially despite meaningful investment. ^[47]

Bottom Line: How to Read Netflix Stock on December 10, 2025

As of December 10, 2025, Netflix sits in a classic high‑quality, high‑uncertainty zone:

The core business is strong: 300+ million subscribers, high engagement, double‑digit revenue growth, and roughly $9 billion in annual free cash flow. ^[48]
The strategic story is expanding: ads are scaling, sports and live events are gaining traction, and gaming plus experiences add long‑term optionality. ^[49]
But the Warner Bros. Discovery bid introduces meaningful deal, leverage, and regulatory risk that could dominate the narrative for the next 12–18 months. ^[50]

Most analysts still expect upside over the next year, with consensus targets in the low‑to‑mid $130s and some bullish calls as high as the low $150s. Yet a visible minority has turned more cautious, cutting ratings and price targets around $105 as they question whether the reward justifies the new risk. ^[51]

For readers and investors, Netflix today is less a simple streaming growth story and more a complex media conglomerate in the making. How the Warner deal, ad business, and balance sheet evolve from here will likely determine whether NFLX’s next decade looks like another runaway success—or a slower, bumpier climb.