New York, Feb 22, 2026, 12:45 EST — The market has closed.
- Netflix ended Friday up 2.17%, with traders watching the Warner bidding battle closely.
- Trump warned Netflix to drop board member Susan Rice, threatening “consequences” if the company doesn’t comply.
- Paramount said the U.S. antitrust waiting period tied to its Warner bid has now run out, but the DOJ is still reviewing the deal.
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) climbed 2.17% to finish at $78.67 on Friday. U.S. markets are closed over the weekend, and by Monday, attention turns to the question of whether political hurdles and antitrust concerns could slow Netflix’s move for Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming business. NYSE
The reason it matters right now comes down to this: the deal is driving the stock’s moves. Any tweak—a bigger offer, stricter terms, or a drawn-out regulatory process—reshapes both risk and the cost of financing almost instantly.
The clock’s running down. Paramount Skydance is pushing its rival bid hard, and with just days to go, Netflix may either face a bidding war or find the door wide open to finish the deal.
Netflix has plenty of cash to work with—about $9.03 billion in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet as of Dec. 31—and could bump up its offer if Paramount sweetens its own, according to two people familiar with the situation who spoke to Reuters. “Price will likely be the deciding factor,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. But Paren Knadjian, partner at Eisner Advisory Group, flagged “board concerns around financing and regulatory approval detract.” Reuters
Paramount said Friday the Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust waiting period wrapped up on Feb. 19, clearing one early hurdle for its $108.4 billion all-cash offer for Warner. But Netflix’s chief legal officer, David Hyman, wasn’t convinced: “They have not secured approvals needed to close and they are a long way from doing so.” Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump brought politics into the mix this weekend, publicly pressing Netflix to oust board member Susan Rice. In a Truth Social post, Trump threatened the company would “pay the consequences” if it didn’t act. Rice, who held senior posts under Democratic administrations, returned to Netflix’s board in 2023, according to the report. The Guardian
The Justice Department’s merger review isn’t sticking to basic market-share calculations anymore. Investigators are now digging into whether Netflix could be wielding anticompetitive power over content creators, Bloomberg News reports, citing a copy of a civil investigative demand sent to an independent movie studio. The request, which acts much like a subpoena, is meant to help determine if the deal “may substantially lessen competition or tend to create a monopoly,” according to Bloomberg. Bloomberg Law
For now, it’s all about the numbers on the table—not subscriber counts. Paramount’s response to Netflix’s $27.75 a share bid is in focus, with attention on whether it comes in higher. Netflix, under the deal’s structure, gets the right to match any superior offer.
The bear case isn’t hard to see now. Prolonged antitrust battles, more heat from politicians, or a steeper price—all of it could weigh on sentiment. Even if Netflix bails and sticks with its main streaming operation, those risks linger.
There’s a camp on Wall Street insisting Netflix doesn’t need Warner to thrive. Wedbush analysts described Netflix as “entirely healthy” on its own, noting its momentum in advertising. They put it bluntly: “does not need this deal.” Investopedia
Traders are eyeing Monday, Feb. 23—that’s when Paramount’s shot at returning with a “best and final” offer runs out. Once that window slams shut, focus snaps to the Warner shareholder vote on March 20, plus whatever new noise regulators might make.
