New York, February 25, 2026, 16:46 ET — Action in after-hours trading.
- Netflix shares finished roughly 6% higher after news of a competing offer for Warner Bros. Discovery stirred up expectations for possible shifts in deal terms.
- Paramount Skydance’s $31-a-share cash bid comes with a ticking fee, and the deal would also take care of Warner’s $2.8 billion breakup fee owed to Netflix.
- U.S. state attorneys general are pushing the Justice Department to take a close look at the Netflix-Warner deal, leaving antitrust concerns hanging over the transaction.
Netflix, Inc. jumped 5.96% Wednesday, finishing regular trading at $82.71. The move came as Warner Bros. Discovery’s board signaled that the revamped Paramount Skydance offer might qualify as a “Company Superior Proposal,” reigniting the takeover battle. (markets.businessinsider.com)
This is significant: the Warner deal’s now a litmus test for just how far Netflix will go for scale—and what it’ll pay. With a higher bid in the mix, the prospect of Netflix simply walking away is back on the table, something investors have been weighing for a while.
Paramount has bumped its offer to $31 a share in cash, adding a ticking fee of 25 cents a share for every quarter that the deal drags past Sept. 30, 2026. The company also committed to cover the $2.8 billion breakup fee Warner faces if it pulls out of its current merger pact with Netflix.
A ticking fee adds a per-share incentive that increases as the deal drags on, typically making up for regulatory holdups. Warner said it hasn’t determined the Paramount offer is better, and if that changes, Netflix would get four business days to respond.
Paramount and Netflix aren’t even chasing the same pieces, complicating any call on which bid brings more value. Netflix is on the table with $27.75 a share, all cash, valuing the offer at $82.7 billion when you factor in net debt. That covers Warner’s film and TV studios, its library, plus HBO Max. Paramount, though, is after the full company, while Warner wants to carve out its TV business as its own listed Discovery Global. “Picking a winner will always be subjective,” Morningstar analyst Matthew Dolgin noted. For eMarketer’s Ross Benes, there’s room to doubt if these rising offers are grounded in strategy or just “ego.” (Reuters)
Eyes are already on Warner’s numbers due out this week—those could change how investors size up the cable networks bundled in Discovery Global. Paramount is on deck with its own results Wednesday; here, the market is just as focused on financing assumptions as on whatever price is on the table.
The surge on Wednesday leaves the main question unresolved. Now, the wager shifts: Netflix either forks over the cash or goes back to the drawing board.
Regulatory risk is still in play. Eleven Republican attorneys general are pressing the Justice Department to examine the Netflix-Warner deal, saying it could “likely result in undue market concentration” and bring “higher prices” and “less innovation” for consumers. Netflix, for its part, argues the agreement will help both consumers and workers—and insists it plans to keep pushing movies into theaters. (Reuters)
States have the power to sue over mergers, but it’s usually the federal agencies that drive the timing and pace. If the review drags on, the cost of waiting climbs—a problem the ticking fee is designed to tackle.
Eyes turn to Warner’s upcoming board update, along with any tweak to the deal terms. Should Warner officially call the Paramount offer superior, Netflix would then have four business days to respond.
For now, traders will probably lean on filings and breaking headlines to steer their next move in NFLX. The only set event on the radar: Warner’s shareholder vote on the Netflix deal, penciled in for March 20.
