Netflix stock is heading into Wednesday’s session on the back foot, as investors continue to digest a historic bid for Warner Bros. Discovery and an aggressive hostile counter-offer from Paramount Skydance — all under the glare of regulators and politicians.
As of early U.S. pre-market trading on December 10, Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) was changing hands around $96.5 per share across major platforms, modestly below Tuesday’s close of $96.71, with various venues showing a small decline of roughly 0.1%–0.3% and pre-market volume in the tens of thousands of shares. [1]
The move comes after a bruising stretch: NFLX is down about 9–10% over the past five trading days and roughly 28% below its 52‑week high near $134, making it one of the weaker performers in the Nasdaq 100 in the second half of 2025. [2]
Netflix pre-market snapshot on December 10, 2025
- Tuesday close (Dec 9, 2025): $96.71, down 0.08% on the day. [3]
- Pre-market indications this morning:
Differences between feeds are normal in thin pre-market trading, but all point to a slightly weaker open for Netflix stock, not a dramatic gap.
Technically, Netflix is hovering just above its 52‑week low of about $82.11 and well below its 52‑week high of $134.12, underscoring how much sentiment has cooled since the stock split–fueled summer rally. [7]
The mega-deal at the center of it all: Netflix’s $82.7B play for Warner Bros.
The single biggest force behind Netflix’s recent volatility — and this morning’s caution — is its blockbuster agreement to buy most of Warner Bros. Discovery’s entertainment empire.
- On December 5, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) said it had agreed to sell its movie and TV studios, HBO, and HBO Max streaming service to Netflix in a deal valuing those assets at an enterprise value of $82.7 billion and an equity value of $72 billion. [8]
- Warner Bros.’ traditional cable channels (like CNN, TNT, Discovery) are being spun off into a separate company, Discovery Global, before the Netflix takeover closes. [9]
Wall Street immediately recognized the move as one of the most consequential media deals in decades — but also an expensive and risky one:
- On the day the deal was announced, Netflix shares fell nearly 3% while Warner Bros. Discovery stock jumped more than 6%, reflecting investors’ concerns about price, integration and regulatory risk. [10]
This morning’s muted pre-market action is happening against that backdrop: traders already know the headline, but are now recalibrating the odds that the deal closes, at what price, and on what terms.
Paramount’s $108.4B hostile bid turns the drama into a bidding war
The plot thickened when Paramount Skydance (PSKY) refused to walk away after losing the initial contest for Warner Bros.
- On Monday, Paramount Skydance launched an all-cash hostile tender offer of $30 per WBD share, valuing the company at $108.4 billion, and going directly to Warner Bros. shareholders. [11]
- Warner Bros.’ board was already in a signed agreement with Netflix, and according to reporting from Bloomberg and The Economic Times, it does not plan to unwind that deal for now — doing so would trigger a multi‑billion‑dollar termination fee (around $2.8B) owed to Netflix. [12]
- However, Paramount’s bid is not “best and final,” and big investors expect the price to move higher by another $5–10 billion if the battle drags on. [13]
A separate report from Benzinga, citing Financial Times sources, highlights how Paramount CEO David Ellison has been meeting WBD shareholders in New York to argue that his $108B cash offer is structurally simpler and potentially faster to clear regulators than Netflix’s $82.7B cash‑and‑stock proposal. Some investors reportedly say they are inclined to tender into Paramount’s offer unless Netflix improves its price or structure. [14]
That same piece notes just how painful the saga has already been for Netflix shareholders:
- Over the past five days, NFLX has dropped about 9.4% to roughly $96.40, even as WBD shares have soared more than 130% amid takeover speculation. [15]
From a pre-market perspective, traders are now pricing in a drawn‑out bidding war that could stretch well into 2026, with Netflix facing a dilemma: sweeten its offer and risk overpaying, or hold firm and risk losing the asset — while still shouldering some deal-related overhang until the outcome is clear. [16]
Political and regulatory storm clouds: “Anti-monopoly nightmare” or pro-competitive?
Regulators and politicians are already circling, and that’s another reason Netflix shares are hesitant this morning.
A detailed analysis from Investing.com outlines the regulatory gauntlet Netflix faces, quoting Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon: [17]
- Netflix’s bid is framed as an “insurance policy” — a long‑term way to sustain growth as streaming matures — but it may have created a new antitrust problem it didn’t previously have.
- The deal comes with a steep break-up fee of about $5.8 billion, meaning Netflix can’t simply walk away without pain if regulators balk.
- Yoon argues Netflix actually has credible pro‑competition arguments:
- The streaming landscape remains crowded, with multiple major competitors.
- More than 90% of HBO Max subscribers already subscribe to Netflix, limiting the elimination of a distinct rival.
- HBO Max’s churn rate above 5–6% suggests it isn’t an unassailable competitor being removed.
- Netflix’s ad‑supported tier at $7.99 per month is cheaper than HBO Max’s $9.99 plan, and bundling HBO Max could lower prices for some consumers.
But regulators and politicians are already firing warning shots:
- Some Democrats have described the tie-up as an “anti‑monopoly nightmare.”
- President Donald Trump has said the combined company’s “big market share…could be a problem,” and has publicly indicated he expects to play a direct role in the review of Netflix’s bid. [18]
- Senator Mike Lee has urged observers to “buckle up for an intense antitrust hearing,” signaling bipartisan scrutiny. [19]
On top of that, state-level regulators in California, New York and Georgia, where much of the U.S. production workforce is based, are expected to demand job and investment protections as a condition of approval. [20]
The public relations backdrop isn’t helping either. A Los Angeles Times report warns that both a Netflix‑Warner and a Paramount‑Warner combination likely mean thousands of additional layoffs in Hollywood, following years of cuts since the Warner–Discovery merger and the Ellison-led takeover of Paramount. [21]
Class-action lawsuit adds legal risk
Adding fuel to the fire, a consumer class-action lawsuit has been filed in California on behalf of an HBO Max subscriber seeking to block the Netflix–Warner deal. [22]
- The suit argues that Netflix’s $72B bid would reduce competition and raise prices by putting too much premium content under one roof.
- It frames the deal as Netflix “buying its way into a monopoly” and asks the court to halt or modify the transaction.
While such early lawsuits don’t usually determine the fate of mega‑mergers by themselves, they underscore the political sensitivity of the transaction and can influence the conditions regulators ultimately demand.
For traders watching Netflix pre-market, every fresh headline about regulators, politicians or lawsuits adds to the uncertainty premium being baked into the stock.
Wall Street’s view today: bullish targets, nervous downgrades
Despite the recent selloff and political noise, analyst opinion on Netflix remains broadly positive — but with a growing split between bulls and cautious voices.
Fresh bullish calls
- UBS yesterday reiterated a Buy rating and $150 price target after hearing from Netflix co-CEOs Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference. [23]
- UBS highlighted Netflix’s plan to spend around $30 billion a year on content, its expectation that advertising revenue will more than double in 2025, and its efforts to integrate AI and gaming into the platform. [24]
- According to the report, Netflix trades at a P/E of about 40, reflecting a premium valuation but backed by 15%+ revenue growth and strong cash generation. [25]
- Needham also reaffirmed a Buy with a $150 target on December 9, reinforcing the bullish camp. [26]
Across the Street more broadly:
- 32 analysts tracked by StockAnalysis give Netflix a consensus rating of “Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target of $130.91 — implying about 35% upside from Tuesday’s close. [27]
- Investing.com’s compilation shows a similar picture: an average target around $129–130, with most of the 28 analysts rating the stock a Buy and only one recommending Sell. [28]
Growing caution
But not everyone is comfortable with the current risk‑reward:
- Rosenblatt and Pivotal Research both downgraded Netflix from Buy to Hold on December 8, slashing their price targets from $152–160 down to $105, much closer to where the stock trades now. [29]
- GuruFocus notes that while the Street’s consensus one‑year target (~$133.37) still implies nearly 38% upside, its own GF Value model pegs the fair value around $95.38, suggesting limited upside from current levels. [30]
In short, fundamental analysts largely still like Netflix for the long term, but several are signalling that regulatory, execution and valuation risks have risen after the Warner bid — one reason why pre-market traders remain cautious even after a sharp pullback.
Technicals into the open: oversold, but still a “sell candidate”
From a charting and quantitative perspective, Netflix doesn’t look comfortable heading into today’s open.
Technical research site StockInvest.us now labels NFLX a “Strong Sell candidate”, noting that: [31]
- The stock has declined in 6 of the last 10 sessions, including five consecutive down days, for a total 10‑day loss of about 9.6%.
- Netflix has broken below a wide, falling short‑term trend, with little accumulated volume support below current price — raising the risk of further downside if selling accelerates.
- The 14‑day RSI sits around 23, an oversold reading that sometimes precedes bounces, but can also be a hallmark of persistent downtrends.
- Their model expects Netflix to open near $96.47 today and trade in a potential intraday range between roughly $94.85 and $98.57, a swing band of ±3.9% around Tuesday’s close.
Traders watching the tape pre-market are likely eyeing the $95 area as near-term support and the $100–102 zone as first resistance, where moving averages and prior congestion sit. [32]
The underlying growth story and long-term forecasts
All of this volatility is happening against a still-strong fundamental backdrop.
According to analyst aggregates on StockAnalysis: [33]
- Netflix revenue is forecast to grow from $39.0B in 2024 to about $46.0B in 2025 (up ~17.9%) and $51.9B in 2026 (up ~12.9%).
- Earnings per share (split‑adjusted) are expected to climb from $1.98 in 2024 to $2.60 in 2025 and $3.30 in 2026, representing ~31% EPS growth in 2025 and ~27% in 2026.
Netflix already has over 300 million global subscribers, with exposure to nearly every market in the world outside China, according to GuruFocus. [34]
Beyond Wall Street’s one‑year horizon, 24/7 Wall St. recently modeled Netflix’s trajectory through 2030, highlighting key drivers like: [35]
- Explosive growth in advertising, which Netflix says is roughly doubling from a small base and already accounts for half of new sign‑ups where ad tiers are offered.
- Games and interactive content based on Netflix IP such as Squid Game and Virgin River, plus licensed franchises like Monument Valley 3.
- Live events, including blockbuster boxing cards and sports-like spectacles that have drawn tens of millions of concurrent viewers.
Their scenario projects Netflix could end 2025 around $121.54 and potentially reach about $222 per share by 2030, assuming double‑digit revenue growth and steady margins — though the authors stress these are projections, not guarantees, and heavily dependent on execution and market conditions. [36]
All of this follows a 10‑for‑1 stock split completed in November, which made Netflix shares more accessible to smaller investors but did nothing to change the company’s underlying valuation. [37]
What’s actually moving Netflix shares this morning?
Putting it all together, here’s what pre-market traders appear to be focused on today, December 10:
- Bidding war trajectory
- Will Paramount raise its $30 per share hostile bid for WBD?
- Will Netflix signal any willingness (or ability) to improve its $82.7B cash‑and‑stock offer? [38]
- Regulatory and political headlines
- Any new statements out of the White House, Congress or state AGs about the deal.
- Early chatter around how tough antitrust remedies might be, especially on pricing, bundling and job cuts. [39]
- Legal and labor backlash
- Macro backdrop and the Fed
- With the Federal Reserve widely expected to cut rates at its final 2025 meeting, any shift in expectations could impact high‑valuation growth names like Netflix disproportionately. [42]
- Technical levels and positioning
- Whether buyers step in around the mid‑$90s after the recent 9–10% slide.
- Options and short‑term traders reacting to oversold readings versus the ongoing downtrend. [43]
So far, the pre-market message is “nervous equilibrium”: no fresh collapse in Netflix stock today, but little appetite to bid shares higher until investors gain more clarity on the Warner Bros. bidding war and the regulatory path.
Bottom line for Netflix investors and traders
- Short term (today and this week):
Expect headline‑driven volatility. Any news about Paramount sweetening its offer, Netflix adjusting its bid, or comments from regulators and the White House can quickly sway NFLX intraday, especially with the Fed decision looming. - Medium term (months):
The stock is now trading in a zone where several major analysts see 30–40% upside, but recent downgrades, political risk and a challenging technical picture argue for elevated risk and potential for further downside if the deal stumbles or the bidding war escalates. [44] - Long term (multi‑year):
Netflix still boasts market‑leading scale, strong projected revenue and EPS growth, and new levers in ads, games and live content, and many long‑range forecasts assume it remains the dominant global streamer. Whether the Warner deal becomes a powerful growth accelerator or an over‑priced headache will likely be a key determinant of long‑term returns. [45]
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and journalistic purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Pre-market prices and data referenced above are indicative and can change rapidly once regular trading begins. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
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