As of November 30, 2025, Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is trading around $107.58 per share, fresh off a 10‑for‑1 stock split that made the streaming giant’s stock far more accessible to retail investors. [1]
Wall Street now sees mid‑double‑digit upside into 2026, powered by fast‑growing ad revenue, strong free cash flow and a deep content pipeline — but also tempered by rich valuation and intensifying competition.
This article pulls together current news, analyst forecasts and model‑based price projections to outline a realistic Netflix stock price forecast for 2026, along with key catalysts and risks to watch. It is informational only and not financial advice.
1. Where Netflix Stock Stands After Its 10‑for‑1 Split
A cheaper share price, same giant business
On October 30, 2025, Netflix announced a 10‑for‑1 forward stock split, issuing nine additional shares for each share held as of November 10. Split‑adjusted shares began trading on November 17, 2025, cutting the share price from around $1,100 to about $110 without changing the company’s underlying value. [2]
Netflix’s multi‑year run has been massive: shares are up more than 100,000% since the 2002 IPO, and over 360% in the last three years, far outpacing rivals like Disney and Comcast. [3]
Fundamentals going into 2026
Recent quarters give important context for any 2026 forecast:
- Q2 2025
- Revenue: $11.08 billion, up ~16% year‑over‑year.
- Net income: $3.13 billion, earnings of $7.19 per share pre‑split (about $0.72 split‑adjusted).
- Full‑year 2025 revenue guidance raised to $44.8–$45.2 billion, implying 15–16% growth. [4]
- Q3 2025
- Revenue: $11.51 billion, up 17% year‑over‑year, the fastest growth in several years. [5]
- Operating income: $3.2 billion, margin 28%, hit by a $619 million Brazilian tax expense, which caused an EPS miss despite strong top‑line growth. [6]
- Full‑year free cash flow (FCF) guidance raised to about $9 billion, up from $8–8.5 billion previously. [7]
Across Q2 and Q3, Netflix reiterated that it expects to roughly double its ad revenue in 2025 and is running operating margins around 30% on an FX‑neutral basis — unusually high for a pure‑play streamer. [8]
Ad‑supported tier reaches huge scale
In November 2025, Netflix introduced a new advertising metric: monthly active viewers (MAVs). Management says the ad‑supported tier now reaches about 190 million MAVs globally, defined as people who see at least one minute of ad‑supported content, adjusted for household size. [9]
Independent research suggests the economics of those viewers are powerful:
- eMarketer estimates Netflix earns about $10.50 per month from an ad‑free viewer, but roughly $43.29 per ad‑supported viewer, reflecting subscription plus advertising revenue. [10]
This shift toward ad‑supported plans — combined with ongoing price hikes on ad‑free tiers in markets like the U.S. and U.K. — is a core pillar of bullish 2026 forecasts. [11]
2. Wall Street’s Netflix Stock Price Forecast Through 2026
Because we’re now at the end of 2025, most 12‑month analyst price targets effectively cover Netflix’s likely trading range through late 2026.
Consensus targets at a glance
Across major data providers, the average 12‑month price target for Netflix clusters in the mid‑$130s, with a high target around $160 and a low in the high‑$70s to mid‑$90s:
- Average target ~$133–135
- Median target ~$139
- Target range
- High Street target: about $160 per share.
- Low Street targets cluster between $72 and $95, depending on the source. [17]
Ratings: generally positive but not euphoric
On rating scales, Netflix typically sits around “Buy” or “Moderate Buy”:
- MarketBeat: 30 Buy, 2 Strong Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell — overall “Moderate Buy”. [18]
- MarketScreener: consensus rating “Outperform” with an average target of $134.44. [19]
- TipRanks: Moderate Buy with an average target of ~$139.13 (high $160, low $95), implying about 31% upside from recent prices. [20]
Several brokers are more bullish:
- Rosenblatt Securities recently reaffirmed a Buy with a $152 target, roughly 40% above current levels. [21]
- Other research notes reference similarly optimistic views, with some targets implying >50% upside over the next year. [22]
Takeaway for 2026:
Wall Street’s base case has Netflix trading in the mid‑$130s to high‑$130s by late 2026, with many analysts expecting 20–30% upside from post‑split levels, and the most optimistic targets clustering around $150–160.
3. Model‑Based Netflix Price Predictions for 2026
Beyond human analysts, there are quantitative forecast models that project detailed monthly prices.
One widely cited example, from Traders Union, gives a granular Netflix price forecast for every month of 2026 (split‑adjusted):
- Average monthly price estimates begin near $114 in January 2026, rising to roughly $154 by August 2026.
- The model’s average projected price for mid‑2026 is about $137.68, and it sees year‑end 2026 around $175.59. [23]
Those numbers imply:
- Mid‑2026: roughly 28% upside vs. the current ~$108 share price.
- End‑2026: roughly 60%+ upside if the statistical model proves accurate. [24]
It’s important to stress that:
These model‑based forecasts are not Wall Street consensus and are based on statistical extrapolations of past price behavior, earnings trends and volatility. Traders Union itself labels them as informational and educational, not investment advice. [25]
Still, they show how quantitative models broadly agree with analysts that the bias for 2026 is upward, even if the exact magnitude is highly uncertain.
4. Earnings Power: What 2026 Looks Like Under the Hood
2026 EPS projections
A recent analysis hosted by Nasdaq, citing Yahoo Finance consensus, suggests Wall Street expects Netflix to grow its earnings to roughly $32.30 per share in 2026 pre‑split — about $3.23 per share after the 10‑for‑1 stock split. [26]
At today’s post‑split price of about $108, that implies a forward P/E of ~34 based on 2026 earnings expectations. [27]
For context:
- Netflix’s current P/E is around 46, slightly above its three‑year average of ~44. [28]
- If earnings hit $3.23 in 2026 and the market still values Netflix at its three‑year average multiple (~44×), the stock would need to trade around $142 (3.23 × 44), about 30% above today’s level. [29]
That simple math lines up almost perfectly with the $135–140 average/median price targets currently published by major brokerages for the next 12 months. [30]
Free cash flow and buybacks
From a cash perspective, Netflix is increasingly behaving like a mature cash machine:
- Management now expects around $9 billion in free cash flow for 2025, up from an earlier $8–8.5 billion forecast. [31]
- The company has been aggressively repurchasing shares, buying back around $1.6–1.9 billion per quarter in 2025 and leaving more than $10 billion authorized for future buybacks. [32]
That combination of high FCF + buybacks can support higher share prices over time — especially if revenue continues to grow in the mid‑teens and margins stay near 30%.
Ads as the big swing factor
Netflix’s ad business is still relatively small in revenue terms, but:
- The company is on track to more than double ad revenue in 2025, according to both earnings commentary and shareholder letters. [33]
- Ads now reach about 190 million monthly active viewers worldwide. [34]
- eMarketer estimates Netflix earns roughly four times more revenue per ad‑supported viewer than per ad‑free viewer. [35]
In parallel, Netflix is rolling out interactive ad formats, advanced targeting, dynamic ad insertion in live sports and events, and integrations with major demand‑side platforms like Amazon’s and Yahoo’s DSPs. [36]
If these initiatives continue to perform, they could justify the rich earnings growth assumptions baked into 2026 forecasts — and potentially push Netflix toward the upper end of its price target range.
5. Bull, Base and Bear Scenarios for Netflix Stock in 2026
None of this is guaranteed, of course. Here’s how 2026 might look under three simplified scenarios, using current forecasts and valuation ranges as anchors rather than hard predictions.
Base case: in line with consensus
- Price range: roughly $130–145 by late 2026.
- Implied move: about 20–35% upside vs. ~$108 today.
- Assumptions:
This base case lines up with the current Street average and median price targets for the next 12 months. [40]
Bull case: high‑end targets and strong ad execution
- Price range: around $150–160 by late 2026.
- Implied move: roughly 40–50% upside.
- Assumptions:
- Ad revenue more than doubles again off the 2025 base, pushing EPS above current 2026 forecasts. [41]
- Live events, sports, games and franchises like Squid Game and Stranger Things keep engagement high and churn low. [42]
- The market is willing to pay P/E multiples near or above today’s ~46×, consistent with the most bullish reports and pre‑split targets (e.g., Jefferies’ former ~$1,400 target ≈ $140 post‑split, Rosenblatt’s $152, and other bullish houses). [43]
This scenario is consistent with Street high targets around $160 and with quantitative models that see Netflix ending 2026 in the mid‑$170s, though those models are inherently speculative. [44]
Bear case: growth slows and valuation compresses
- Price range: roughly $77–95 by late 2026.
- Implied move: anywhere from flat to ~30% downside from current levels.
- Assumptions:
- Revenue growth decelerates, and ad revenue disappoints versus management’s current “more than double” rhetoric. [45]
- Competitive pressures from Disney+, Max, Amazon, YouTube and others squeeze pricing power and engagement. [46]
- Investors decide Netflix’s valuation should track more conservative benchmarks:
In this downside scenario, Netflix might still grow earnings, but a combination of slower growth and a re‑rating in valuation would keep or push the stock into the lower end of today’s targeting ranges.
6. Key Catalysts and Risks for Netflix in 2026
Catalysts that could push Netflix toward the bull case
- Ad business scale and pricing power
- Sustained growth in MAVs beyond 190 million and rising CPMs as Netflix adds interactive ads, better targeting and live sports inventory. [49]
- Content and franchise strength
- New seasons of tent‑pole franchises (Stranger Things, Squid Game, Bridgerton, Wednesday and others) that drive spikes in sign‑ups and keep churn low. [50]
- Live events and sports
- Continued expansion into boxing events, NFL holiday games and potentially more sports rights or live entertainment, all of which create ad‑friendly appointment viewing. [51]
- Free cash flow and buybacks
- If Netflix can keep FCF near or above $9 billion and maintain a large repurchase program, per‑share earnings could grow faster than total profit, magnifying upside. [52]
Risks that could drag Netflix toward the bear case
- Competition and saturation
- Rivals like Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery (Max), Amazon and others are copying Netflix’s password‑sharing crackdown and ad‑tier strategy, eroding what was once a unique advantage. [53]
- Regulatory and tax surprises
- The Brazilian tax dispute, which already cost Netflix about $619 million in Q3 2025, is a reminder that regulatory issues can hit profits unexpectedly. [54]
- Valuation risk
- At a P/E in the mid‑40s, Netflix is priced for continued high growth. If sentiment cools, the stock could revert toward Morningstar’s $77 fair value or the lower Street targets even if operations remain solid. [55]
- Macro and FX
- A strong U.S. dollar or consumer weakness could weigh on global revenue; Netflix itself notes FX can have a significant impact on reported numbers and has already influenced its 2025 guidance. [56]
7. Is Netflix Stock a Buy for 2026? (Important Disclaimer)
From a forecast perspective, here’s the rough picture:
- Consensus 12‑month/2026 view:
- Average target: mid‑$130s
- Median target: around $139
- Implied upside: roughly 20–30% from the post‑split price. [57]
- Optimistic scenarios:
- High‑end analyst targets and some model‑based projections imagine $150–175+ by the end of 2026, if ad growth and earnings momentum stay very strong. [58]
- Conservative views:
- Morningstar’s fair value at $77 and low Street targets in the $77–95 range highlight substantial downside if growth or sentiment falter. [59]
Whether Netflix is “a buy” for you in 2026 depends on:
- Your risk tolerance (the stock is still volatile and richly valued).
- Your view on streaming and ad‑supported video as long‑term growth markets.
- Your time horizon (short‑term traders face more valuation risk than long‑term holders who believe in Netflix’s moat and content engine).
Final word
The Netflix stock price forecast for 2026 is, in broad strokes:
A tilt toward upside — with most professional and quantitative forecasts clustered between $130 and $160 — but with meaningful downside risk if growth slows or the market stops paying a premium for the Netflix story.
If you’re considering investing, it’s essential to:
- Dig into Netflix’s own shareholder letters and earnings transcripts. [60]
- Compare multiple analyst reports, including both bullish and cautious voices.
- Match any position size to your personal financial situation and risk appetite.
And again: nothing in this article is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold Netflix stock. It’s a synthesis of current news, forecasts and analyses to help you understand how the market is thinking about NFLX heading into 2026.
References
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