Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) is back in the spotlight on Friday, December 12, 2025, as gold prices remain elevated, the stock trades near fresh highs, and investors weigh a busy mix of catalysts: macro tailwinds for bullion, Newmont’s cash-flow strength, and a notable development tied to its 10.3% stake in SolGold.
Below is a detailed breakdown of today’s Newmont stock action, the key headlines moving sentiment, and what forecasts and analysts are saying as the company heads into 2026.
Newmont stock price action on Dec. 12, 2025: big swing after a run to new highs
Newmont stock has been volatile in the latest session. Midday Friday, NEM traded around $97.55, after opening near $101.89 and swinging between roughly $96.53 and $102.80 intraday.
That intraday range matters because it reflects the tug-of-war between:
- momentum buyers chasing a gold-driven breakout, and
- profit-takers reacting to how far the stock has already climbed in 2025.
In the “momentum” narrative, Newmont’s recent run has been dramatic. A Zacks analysis published this morning noted the stock hit a new 52‑week high of $100.41 in the prior session and has gained roughly 167% year to date (per that publication’s tracking). [1]
Why Newmont is moving: gold holds near a 7-week high as rate-cut expectations persist
For gold miners like Newmont, the “headline” driver is still the metal itself.
Reuters reported Friday that spot gold hovered near a seven-week high at about $4,286/oz, supported by a softer dollar and investor expectations for additional U.S. rate cuts in the year ahead (markets pricing in more easing than the Fed’s projections). [2]
That macro backdrop tends to lift large-cap gold equities because it can:
- raise realized prices on production,
- expand margins (if costs don’t rise as fast),
- and increase free cash flow that can be returned via dividends and buybacks.
Major Dec. 12 headline: Newmont backs a revised SolGold takeover approach (and it’s not a small position)
One of the most “new” items on Dec. 12 connected to Newmont isn’t about its own mines—but about its strategic equity holdings.
Reuters reported today that China’s Jiangxi Copper raised its takeover approach for SolGold to 28 pence per share, valuing the company at about £842 million (around $1.13 billion), and that SolGold’s board indicated it would be minded to recommend the proposal if it becomes firm. [3]
A primary market announcement (UK takeover-code disclosure) adds the detail most relevant to Newmont shareholders: Newmont Corporation provided a letter of intent supporting the revised possible offer over its holding of 309,309,996 SolGold shares—representing 10.3% of SolGold’s voting rights. [4]
Why this matters for NEM investors
This development is being watched because it suggests a potential pathway for Newmont to monetize a large minority stake, consistent with its broader capital-allocation themes (portfolio optimization and liquidity). It is still non-binding and not guaranteed to close, but it’s a real, time-stamped catalyst investors are incorporating into the narrative. [5]
Fundamentals: Newmont’s “cash engine” has been the other pillar of the 2025 rally
The market’s enthusiasm for NEM in 2025 hasn’t been based on gold prices alone. Newmont’s recent reporting emphasized balance-sheet strengthening and shareholder returns.
In its Q3 2025 results, Newmont reported (among other items):
- Average realized gold price:$3,539/oz in Q3 2025
- Attributable gold production:1.42 million ounces in Q3
- Gold co-product AISC:$1,566/oz in Q3
- Net income attributable to Newmont stockholders:$1.832 billion in Q3
- Free cash flow:$1.571 billion in Q3 [6]
The company also highlighted:
- $823 million returned to shareholders since the prior earnings call through repurchases and dividends,
- $3.3 billion of share repurchases executed and settled (with $2.7 billion remaining under previously authorized programs),
- $2 billion of debt reduced via a tender offer, ending Q3 in a near-zero net debt position with $5.6 billion cash and $9.6 billion total liquidity, and
- a Moody’s credit rating upgrade to A3 (stable outlook). [7]
For investors, that combination—high metal prices plus a fortified balance sheet—helps explain why Newmont has traded more like a “cash compounder” than a purely cyclical miner this year.
2025 guidance and 2026 indications: steady range, but “toward the lower end” next year
Newmont’s own outlook is important because miners can see share-price pressure even with high gold prices if volumes dip or spending rises.
From the same Q3 release, Newmont’s full‑year 2025 attributable gold production guidance was listed at 5.9 million ounces, with Q4 2025 expected at ~1.415 million ounces. The release also showed 2025 gold AISC guidance of $1,630/oz (total Newmont). [8]
Then comes the part the market continues to debate going into 2026:
Newmont said 2026 attributable gold production is expected to be within the same guidance range as 2025, but toward the lower end, due to planned mine sequencing—while also indicating that lower ounces from Ahafo South are expected to be largely replaced by new, lower-cost ounces from Ahafo North. [9]
And yes—spending can still matter even in a strong gold tape. Newmont noted Q4 free cash flow would be pressured by rising spending on Yanacocha water treatment facilities and planned severance payments accrued in Q3. [10]
Ahafo North is now a key growth story heading into 2026
Operationally, Ahafo North in Ghana is a centerpiece project many analysts point to when making the “durability” case for Newmont’s production profile.
Newmont stated Ahafo North is expected to produce:
- about 50,000 ounces of gold in 2025, and
- 275,000–325,000 ounces annually over the next five years, within a 13‑year mine life. [11]
Newmont also framed Ahafo North as a cornerstone asset in a stable jurisdiction, though Ghana is simultaneously discussing reforms and audits across the mining sector—an ongoing theme investors will watch as it relates to fiscal terms. [12]
Newmont CEO transition is weeks away: another near-term focus for investors
A corporate event that will soon become “current” is leadership change.
Newmont announced that CEO Tom Palmer will step down at year-end, with Natascha Viljoen becoming President and CEO on January 1, 2026, while Palmer serves as Strategic Advisor until March 31, 2026. [13]
For the stock, CEO transitions matter less for day-to-day trading than for strategy: investors will be watching whether capital allocation, cost discipline, and portfolio decisions remain consistent under new leadership.
Forecasts and analyst views on Dec. 12: price targets vary—and the “easy upside” may be gone
Because NEM has already had a huge run in 2025, the forecasting conversation today is less about “will gold help?” and more about valuation, sustainability, and execution.
Earnings expectations: still rising in many models
The Zacks analysis published today cited expectations for:
- $6.06 EPS and $21.12B revenue in the current fiscal year, and
- $7.07 EPS and $22.74B revenue next fiscal year. [14]
12‑month price target snapshots (as reported by major trackers)
Different aggregators show notably different consensus targets (methodologies and covered analysts differ), which is itself a signal that the stock is now harder to “handicap” after the surge:
- Investing.com lists an average 12‑month price target of ~$108.13 (about +10% upside from the price level shown there), with a high estimate ~$133 and low ~$62; it also displays recent actions such as UBS “Buy” $125 (Dec. 1) and BNP Paribas Exane “Hold” (Dec. 5). [15]
- MarketBeat lists a consensus price target of ~$96.37 with a “Buy” consensus (and a very wide historical range). [16]
- StockAnalysis shows a smaller‑sample consensus around $99.33, implying modest upside at the time of capture. [17]
What the divergence likely means
When targets bunch close to the current price, it often implies analysts think:
- a lot of the gold-rally benefit is already priced in, and
- future upside may require either another leg up in bullion or operational surprises (higher output, lower costs, faster project delivery, more capital returns).
Key risks investors are weighing right now
Even in a powerful gold market, Newmont stock can react sharply to a few factors:
- Gold price volatility
If rate expectations shift or the dollar strengthens, miners can quickly de-rate—even if their operations are steady. [18] - Production mix and sequencing into 2026
Management has already indicated 2026 output is expected toward the lower end of the 2025 range. [19] - Cash flow pressure from remediation and project spend
Newmont specifically flagged Q4 free cash flow headwinds from Yanacocha water treatment spending and severance. [20] - Jurisdictional and regulatory shifts
Ghana remains a strategic jurisdiction for Newmont, but Reuters has highlighted audits and legal reforms under consideration—issues that can affect miners through taxation, royalties, and permitting. [21] - M&A and portfolio moves
Events like the SolGold situation can create opportunity—but also uncertainty until terms are final and cash outcomes are clear. [22]
What to watch next for Newmont stock
If you’re tracking NEM into year-end and early 2026, these are the most time-specific items on the calendar:
- Dividend: Newmont declared a $0.25/share quarterly dividend for Q3 2025, payable Dec. 22, 2025 to shareholders of record Nov. 26, 2025. [23]
- CEO transition:Jan. 1, 2026 leadership change to Natascha Viljoen. [24]
- Next earnings window: Several trackers point to Feb. 19, 2026 as the expected next earnings date (not always officially confirmed in advance). [25]
- SolGold/Jiangxi process: The revised possible offer is still non-binding and subject to approvals and further steps under the takeover code. [26]
- Gold price path: Markets are still focused on whether rate cuts continue into 2026 and how that shapes bullion demand. [27]
Bottom line
On Dec. 12, 2025, Newmont stock is trading like a company at the intersection of two powerful forces:
- a macro cycle (gold holding near elevated levels as rate expectations remain dovish), and
- a company-specific execution story (cash flow, buybacks, balance sheet repair, and a project pipeline led by Ahafo North). [28]
The stock’s huge 2025 move means forecasts are now more split: some targets still point higher, but others imply limited upside unless gold rises again or Newmont delivers further operating and capital-return upside. [29]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investegate.co.uk, 5. www.investegate.co.uk, 6. www.newmont.com, 7. www.newmont.com, 8. www.newmont.com, 9. www.newmont.com, 10. www.newmont.com, 11. www.newmont.com, 12. www.newmont.com, 13. www.newmont.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.newmont.com, 20. www.newmont.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investegate.co.uk, 23. www.newmont.com, 24. www.newmont.com, 25. www.zacks.com, 26. www.investegate.co.uk, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.investing.com
