Nifty on Oil Watch Again as Rally Resumes

Nifty on Oil Watch Again as Rally Resumes

Mumbai, May 26, 2026, 12:42 IST

  • Nifty 50 was little changed after rising 1.3% on Monday, as new U.S. strikes in Iran took some steam out of peace-deal hopes.
  • Rupee fell after Brent crude bounced, putting more pressure on India, which imports a lot of oil.
  • Bakri Id on Thursday and upcoming derivatives expiry may keep trade choppy.

Nifty 50 traded flat at 24,021.95 by 12:40 p.m. in Mumbai on Tuesday, as Indian shares lost early momentum. New U.S. strikes in Iran weighed on a recent relief rally over Middle East peace hopes. The NSE’s live page put the index down 0.04%. Reuters had earlier noted both Sensex and Nifty moved back and forth between slight gains and losses.

Oil led Monday’s rally, sending Indian stocks to two-week highs. Brent dropped as U.S.-Iran talks looked more positive. The Nifty finished up 1.32% at 24,031.70, and the Sensex climbed 1.42% to 76,488.96, both closing at their best levels since May 8.

Oil’s rebound is making the trade less straightforward for India. The country buys most of its crude. Rising oil prices can push up inflation, pressure the rupee, and cast doubt on how much more policy support is coming. Brent futures climbed over 2% in Asian trading after the U.S. move. The rupee fell 0.2% to 95.4325 per dollar, Reuters said.

Devarsh Vakil, head of prime research at HDFC Securities, said, “Investor optimism over a U.S.-Iran peace deal has been tempered by fresh U.S. strikes in the Middle East.” Vakil said this has led to worries that a final agreement could be delayed. Reuters

Breadth held up, falling short of a true selloff. Reuters reported 11 out of 16 major sectors traded up early. Smaller stocks beat the rest: small-caps up 0.9%, mid-caps added 0.3%. Economic Times put metals, chemicals, media and state-run banks at the front, with FMCG, pharma, consumption and cement under some mild profit-booking.

Tech stocks helped early, with Infosys, Tech Mahindra and TCS in the green, but IndiGo, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, Trent, Titan and UltraTech Cement fell behind, according to Economic Times. The mix left the market looking like a stock-picker’s game, not a clear risk-on rally.

VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, said talks to end the West Asia crisis are still ongoing, with “no clear signs of an immediate resolution.” He said the 1,073-point Sensex jump on Monday suggests investors are still buying when crude prices fall and conflict risks ease. The Economic Times

Currency markets stayed tight. Reuters reported state-run banks sold dollars to cap losses in the rupee. Some analysts are expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike from the RBI in June; one basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point. ANZ said in a note that a pre-emptive hike would show a focus on future inflation.

Stocks moved on earnings news. Rail Vikas Nigam slipped after a big quarterly profit drop. Business Standard said RVNL’s consolidated net profit fell nearly 60% from a year ago to 1.87 billion rupees, despite revenue up 4% to 66.96 billion rupees. Container Corporation of India lost ground as well after its fourth-quarter profit came in lower, Reuters reported.

Pine Labs shares climbed up to 4.5% after posting a profit of 590 million rupees for the March quarter, reversing a loss of 290 million rupees the year before, according to Times of India. Revenue for the quarter was up 17% on the year.

Taiwan has passed India to become the world’s fifth-biggest stock market by value. Taiwan’s market stood at $4.95 trillion, just ahead of India’s $4.92 trillion as of Monday, Bloomberg data showed, with TSMC and the global AI chip trade pushing the move.

But risks run both ways. If oil drops again on a real U.S.-Iran deal, Monday’s relief trade could come back fast. If crude heads higher and the rupee keeps falling, focus may shift back to inflation, foreign outflows and the RBI’s June policy meeting. Trade could also stay volatile with futures and options expiring this week, and with Bakri Id on Thursday, May 28, marking an NSE holiday, according to its calendar.

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the founder and CEO of TS2 Space, a satellite communications company working with customers worldwide. His experience spans satellite communications, telecommunications and technology ventures. He graduated from the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) and writes about space technology, artificial intelligence, stocks and the technology companies and industries he follows. Follow Marcin Frąckiewicz on Google News, Facebook or LinkedIn.

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