LAGOS, July 25, 2026, 14:08 WAT
- The official rate closed Friday at ₦1,362.09 per dollar, gaining 1.4% over the week.
- Thursday’s interbank turnover fell 19.8%, while the official-to-street spread widened to 2.93%.
- Fuel importers’ dollar demand may challenge the advance when trading resumes Monday.
Nigeria’s formal foreign-exchange market was closed for the weekend. The naira ended Friday at ₦1,362.09 per dollar in official trading. That was 1.4% firmer than the previous Friday.
The move made Nigeria the only gainer in a five-market African snapshot. Yet traders expect the currency to weaken by July 30. Fuel-import dollar demand is the immediate threat.
Thursday’s internal data offered a less bullish reading. The official rate gained 0.14%, while the parallel rate lost 0.5%. The spread widened to 2.93% from 1.8%.
Interbank turnover fell 19.8% to $334.13 million. Deals dropped to 122 from 198. The figures suggest a liquidity-led rally, rather than broad dollar abundance.
The regional comparison sharpened that contrast:
| Currency | Thursday rate per dollar | Weekly move | View to July 30 | Main driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigerian naira | 1,368 | +1.1% | Weaker | Fuel-import dollar demand |
| Ghanaian cedi | 11.61 | -1.0% | Weaker | Corporate dollar demand |
| Ugandan shilling | 3,740 | -1.4% | Weaker | Higher oil costs |
| Zambian kwacha | 18.54 | -0.5% | Stable | Firm copper prices |
| Kenyan shilling | 129.50 | 0.0% | Stable | Long-running stability |
Local-currency move; positive figures indicate appreciation. Midpoints are used for quoted ranges.
Preliminary dealer quotes put Friday’s parallel selling rate near ₦1,410. That implies a 3.5% premium to the official close. Informal prices vary by dealer and city.
Fuel demand is the next test. A market trader said importers were front-loading dollar purchases to rebuild inventories. Those bids could reverse part of last week’s gain.
Reserves provide a buffer. Gross reserves reached $52.03 billion on July 22, a 17-year high. They stood 35.6% above a year earlier.
Coronation Merchant Bank said the naira averaged about ₦1,365 in the first half. Its own forecast had been ₦1,382. Analysts there called the performance “notable resilience.” Business Day
Preliminary investor calculation: Coronation’s ₦1,456 year-end forecast implies 6.9% depreciation from Friday. The estimate excludes interest income, tax and trading costs. It is not a fresh target.
The 12-month NITTY reference yield stood at 20.75% Friday. The central bank had held its policy rate at 26.50% on Tuesday. Robert Omotunde of MDU Capital said tight conditions should “reinforce the attractiveness of naira-denominated assets.” Proshare
The yield and currency forecast use different horizons. Still, the gap shows why carry demand can persist. The street premium shows why hedging remains costly.
When trading resumes Monday, turnover will be the first test. A narrower parallel premium would offer a second confirmation. Another thin-volume gain would leave the rally less secure.
Risks: Higher oil prices can lift export receipts and fuel-import costs together. Softer portfolio inflows or reduced official support would pressure the naira.
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