New York, July 4, 2026, 15:06 EDT
- NIKE, Inc. NYSE:NKE ended Thursday up 2.4% at $44.09, with 34.3 million shares changing hands. The company’s market cap stood around $65.3 billion.
- U.S. stock markets stayed closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday. NYSE usually runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET during regular sessions.
- Nike’s Q4 revenue slipped 1%, but gross margin widened to 49.2% after a tariff-recovery boost.
NIKE, Inc. NYSE:NKE jumped 8.20% this week to close Thursday at $44.09 after buyers came back for the company’s margin recovery plan, while sales remained soft. The stock is still down 30.80% for 2026 and off 42.28% for the past year, according to MarketWatch data.
Volume is the quieter story here. Nike traded about 54 million shares a day from Monday through Thursday, more than twice its typical volume, based on Investing.com. That kind of action argues against calling this just a holiday move. Barron’s pointed to Dow Jones Market Data showing U.S. exchange volume at 8.73 billion shares through midday Thursday, which is a bit above the year’s average.
| Market check | Reading |
|---|---|
| Nike ended July 2 | $44.09 |
| Nike change five days | +8.20% |
| Nike YTD change / 1-year | -30.80% / -42.28% |
| Average volume, June 29 to July 2 | 54.0 mln shares |
| 65-day average volume | 26.69 mln shares |
| July 2, Nike vs DJIA / S&P 500 / Consumer Goods | +2.39% vs +1.14% / 0.00% / +0.01% |
The rally is notable because Nike shares are now trading near where Wall Street already has them. WSJ/FactSet shows a $47 median price target, an average target of $50.32, with 24 holds, 10 buys, five overweight, and two sells on the stock. At $44.09, Nike trades just 6.6% below the median, leaving less room for more upside unless new estimates rise or short interest keeps dropping.
Nike’s call showed the debate in the stock. CFO Matthew Friend said Q4 revenue was down 1% on a reported basis and 4% currency-neutral. Nike Direct dropped 9% currency-neutral, Nike Digital fell 12%, and sales at Nike-owned stores slid 7%. Wholesale rose 1%. Gross margin hit 49.2%, but stripped of an IEEPA tariff recovery it was 40.2%, 10 basis points lower than last year.
| Operating line | Q4 reading |
|---|---|
| Revenue | fell 1% as reported; down 4% without currency effects |
| Nike Direct | dropped 9% on a currency-neutral basis |
| Nike Digital | slid 12% |
| Nike-owned stores | off 7% |
| Wholesale | rose 1% currency-neutral |
| Reported gross margin | 49.2% |
| Gross margin ex-tariff recovery | 40.2% |
| EPS / EPS ex-tariff recovery | $0.72 / $0.20 |
The tariff item was big. Friend said Nike took a one-time IEEPA recovery of $986 million in Q4, and over $300 million of that had been received as cash by May 31, with the balance counted as receivables. That’s why the way the stock moved is really about whether investors trust future margins, not just the quarter’s EPS.
CEO Elliott Hill told analysts, “The results aren’t there yet,” and said Nike was “not living up to our full potential.” Cristina Fernandez at Telsey Advisory Group called the Nike turnaround slow. Morningstar analyst David Swartz said, “Expectations were low and Nike had a sales decline, so these are still not good results.” Steve Sosnick, Interactive Brokers’ chief strategist, said there was “more good news in the Nike quarter than there is bad news.” Reuters
Nike’s running business is still the biggest positive for the company. Hill said Nike Running saw double-digit growth for five quarters in a row, adding about $1 billion during that time. Statement-footwear running share rose five points in Western Europe and North America. Hill also said wholesale revenue for the fiscal year was up 4%, pushed by double-digit growth in North America.
The reset continues to drag. Direct is down, and sell-through is still weak in sportswear and Jordan streetwear. China hasn’t recovered yet. Reuters said Greater China sales dropped 17% on a currency-neutral basis in Q4. That’s worse than the 10% decline last quarter, though not as bad as Nike’s earlier estimate of around a 20% fall.
This week, the focus is tight: keep that post-earnings volume support near $44, as management steers first-quarter revenue lower by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage, with gross margin just over break-even and demand-creation spend rising high single digits going into the World Cup. Friend said Nike does not see the operating picture getting much better in the next six months.
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