Dec. 25, 2025 — U.S. markets are closed for Christmas Day, but NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) is heading into the holiday with fresh momentum—and the same old debate: is this a battered blue-chip setting up for a comeback, or a brand still stuck in the messy middle of a multi-year reset?
On the last trading day before the holiday, Nike stock finished at about $60 after a holiday-shortened session that was supercharged by a headline-grabbing insider purchase from Apple CEO Tim Cook. Reuters
Below is what’s driving Nike shares as of 25.12.2025, pulling together the latest news, management outlook, and analyst commentary from the past week.
Nike Stock News Today: Why NKE Jumped into Christmas
The biggest catalyst hitting the tape right before Christmas: Tim Cook bought roughly $3 million of Nike shares, nearly doubling his personal stake. Cook has been on Nike’s board since 2005 and has served as lead independent director since 2016, making the purchase a very public “I’m not scared” signal—especially after Nike’s post-earnings slide. Reuters
Key details reported in filings and coverage:
- Cook bought 50,000 shares at about $58.97 each (roughly $3M total). Reuters
- His holdings rose to ~105,000 shares, valued around $6M near the time of reporting. Reuters
- Another Nike director, Robert Swan, also bought shares—about $500,000 worth—adding to the “insider confidence” storyline. Reuters
Reuters also noted that analysts at Baird viewed Cook’s move as a positive signal for CEO Elliott Hill’s recovery plan, and that this purchase was among the largest open-market insider buys at Nike in more than a decade. Reuters
That’s the near-term headline. The longer-term weight class is earnings, margins, China—and tariffs.
Nike Earnings Recap: Revenue Held Up, Profitability Didn’t
Nike’s latest quarterly print (fiscal 2026 Q2, ended Nov. 30, 2025) delivered a familiar mixed bag: the top line was resilient, but margins and earnings still took hits.
From Nike’s official results:
- Revenue:$12.4B, up 1% reported (flat currency-neutral). Nike Investor Relations
- Wholesale revenue:$7.5B, up 8%. Nike Investor Relations
- NIKE Direct revenue:$4.6B, down 8% (with Nike Brand Digital down 14% and Nike-owned stores down 3%). Nike Investor Relations
- Gross margin:40.6%, down 300 bps (3 percentage points). Nike Investor Relations
- Net income:$0.8B, down 32%; EPS:$0.53, down 32%. Nike Investor Relations
Regionally, the scorecard shows why the market keeps snapping back to the same question (“Okay, but what about China?”):
- North America:$5.633B, +9% Nike Investor Relations
- EMEA:$3.392B, +3% Nike Investor Relations
- Greater China:$1.423B, -17% Nike Investor Relations
- Asia Pacific & Latin America:$1.667B, -4% Nike Investor Relations
Also worth noting: Converse revenue fell to $300M, down 30% in the quarter. Nike Investor Relations
This is the anatomy of Nike’s 2025 reality: North America is healthier, wholesale is growing again, but China (and margins) keep stealing the microphone.
The Nike Forecast from Management: Holiday-Quarter Revenue Down, Margins Still Under Pressure
Nike’s outlook for the current quarter (fiscal Q3, which includes the December holiday shopping period) didn’t calm nerves.
Reuters reported that Nike expects:
- Q3 revenue to decline in the low single digits, and
- gross margin to fall another 175 to 225 basis points in the current quarter. Reuters
So even with a “better than feared” revenue line in Q2, the company is telling investors: the margin grind isn’t over yet.
China: The Pressure Point That Won’t Let Nike Stock Breathe
China has shifted from Nike’s growth engine to its biggest investor headache.
Reuters described Nike’s China situation as a “conundrum” deepening as the turnaround stagnates there, highlighting:
- Six straight quarterly declines in China sales Reuters
- Footwear sales down 21% in Greater China Reuters
- Online sales down 36% amid intensified competition from domestic brands like Anta and Li-Ning Reuters
Nike’s CEO Elliott Hill acknowledged on the earnings call that the company needs to “reset” its approach in China, and Reuters emphasized that investors are increasingly impatient for a clearer timeline. Reuters
For stock-watchers, the key isn’t just that China is down—it’s that China is down while Nike is also accepting margin pain elsewhere (discounting and channel mix shifts) to fuel the broader turnaround. That’s a lot of “today pain” for “tomorrow gain,” and the market is demanding receipts.
Tariffs and Margin Compression: The Unsexy Force Moving the Stock
Nike’s earnings commentary and subsequent reporting kept circling back to the same culprit behind margin weakness: tariffs + transition costs.
Nike itself said Q2 gross margin fell primarily due to higher tariffs in North America. Nike Investor Relations
Reuters added more color: Nike reiterated expectations that steep tariffs tied to key manufacturing regions will cost the company about $1.5B this year, and described tariffs as a “significant headwind.” Reuters
The takeaway for investors is blunt: even if demand stabilizes, margin recovery has an external ceiling until Nike offsets tariff pressure through pricing, sourcing shifts, mix upgrades, or cost actions—none of which happen overnight.
“Win Now” Strategy: Wholesale Rebuild, Marketing Spend, and Product Heat
Nike’s turnaround narrative under CEO Elliott Hill has a clear throughline: get back to sport, rebuild the marketplace, and reignite innovation.
Wholesale is back (even if it’s lower margin)
Nike’s wholesale revenue grew 8% in Q2, while NIKE Direct fell 8%—a reversal from the “DTC-only future” vibe of earlier years. Nike Investor Relations
Reuters reported that Nike has been mending relationships with wholesalers like Dick’s Sporting Goods to improve visibility and distribution, even though that shift can pressure margins because wholesale typically earns less per unit than direct sales. Reuters
Marketing spend is rising
Ahead of earnings, Reuters reported Nike was expanding marketing efforts, with demand creation investment expected to top $5B in 2026 (per LSEG data). Reuters
In the quarter, Nike’s demand creation expense (a marketing-heavy line) was $1.3B, up 13%, reflecting higher brand and sports marketing spend. Nike Investor Relations
The bet: marketing works better when it’s attached to fresh product stories.
Innovation and product resets
Reuters noted Nike’s focus on running (including new versions of Pegasus Premium and Vomero 18) and scaling back older lifestyle lines—an effort to regain “cultural cachet” against newer competitors like On and Hoka. Reuters
Nike also continues to point to new lines such as NikeSKIMS as promising, though investors remain focused on whether those launches move the needle quickly enough. Reuters
Analyst Forecasts for Nike Stock: Price Targets Still Above the Tape
Despite the ugly parts of the story (China + margins), Wall Street’s aggregate stance remains more optimistic than Nike’s stock chart.
Investopedia reported:
- Wall Street analysts tracked by Visible Alpha show a mean price target around $80, well above the ~$60 level seen into Christmas. Investopedia
- Bank of America analysts said they see consensus estimates “bottoming” and pointed to catalysts including progress on innovation offsetting the sell-down of older styles. Investopedia
That optimism is not a guarantee—targets are opinions, not outcomes—but it helps explain why insider buying landed so loudly: it hit a market already primed for “maybe the worst is priced in” narratives.
What Could Move Nike Stock Next: The 2026 Catalyst List
Heading out of Dec. 25, 2025, Nike stock’s next major moves are likely to depend on whether the company can show measurable progress on a few specific fronts:
1) China stabilization (not even growth—just stabilization).
If Greater China declines moderate, Nike’s whole narrative changes temperature. Right now, the region’s revenue trends remain the most visible drag. Nike Investor Relations
2) Evidence that inventory cleanup is working without permanent brand damage.
Discounting can clear shelves fast—but it can also train customers to wait for deals. Nike has been clearing older inventory as part of the reset, and margins reflect that. Reuters
3) Gross margin trajectory through tariff pressure.
Nike is telling the market to expect another margin decline in Q3. Investors will be watching for mitigation efforts and signals that margin can recover once the “reset” phase matures. Reuters
4) Brand heat + product cycle improvements.
Nike’s strategy leans heavily on innovation in running and sport-driven storytelling, plus major sports moments ahead (Reuters pointed to the World Cup being six months away as a marketing opportunity). Reuters
5) Channel mix balance.
Wholesale growth is currently a bright spot, but the long-term model still needs a healthier, higher-quality direct business—especially digital—without leaning on promotions. Nike Investor Relations
Bottom Line for Nike Stock on Dec. 25, 2025
Nike is ending 2025 with a storyline that feels like two different companies stitched together:
- Company A: North America improving, wholesale rebuilding, marketing investment rising, product offense re-centering on sport. Nike Investor Relations
- Company B: China still sliding, digital weak in key areas, margins squeezed by tariffs and discounting, with management guiding to more pressure near-term. Reuters
Tim Cook’s purchase gave the stock a holiday jolt—and it matters because insiders rarely choose “bad timing” on purpose. But it doesn’t erase the core investor homework: Nike’s turnaround needs proof in the numbers, especially in China and margins. Reuters
