NEW YORK — Dec. 22, 2025 — Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) stock is starting the holiday-shortened week still digesting last week’s sharp post-earnings selloff, as investors weigh a familiar mix of catalysts: a faster-growing wholesale channel, a slower-than-hoped China recovery, and a tariff-driven squeeze on gross margins.
Nike shares were trading around $57.6 in Monday’s session, after opening near $59 and touching an intraday low around $57.6, according to market data.
Below is what’s driving Nike stock today, what Wall Street is forecasting next, and the key signals investors are watching as Nike pushes deeper into CEO Elliott Hill’s “Win Now” turnaround plan.
Nike stock price today: What the market is reacting to
The immediate backdrop is last week’s earnings-driven repricing.
Nike reported fiscal Q2 2026 results (quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025) that beat consensus on revenue and earnings, but the market’s attention snapped back to two high-stakes issues: China and profitability.
Reuters reported that Nike’s gross margin fell for a second consecutive quarter and management warned margins are likely to decline again in the current quarter, citing tariffs and the ongoing cost of resetting the business. [1]
That matters because, for much of the past decade, Nike’s premium brand strength allowed it to command strong margins even through shifting demand cycles. In 2025, the debate has become whether Nike’s comeback can happen fast enough to offset a margin headwind that looks increasingly structural: tariffs and channel mix.
Nike earnings recap: The key numbers investors are using to value NKE
From Nike’s official earnings release for fiscal Q2 2026:
- Revenue:$12.4 billion, up 1% reported (flat currency-neutral)
- Wholesale revenue:$7.5 billion, up 8%
- NIKE Direct revenue:$4.6 billion, down 8% reported
- Gross margin:40.6%, down 300 basis points
- Diluted EPS:$0.53 (net income $0.8 billion, down 32%) [2]
The headline is mixed in a very Nike-specific way: wholesale is healing while direct remains under pressure, and the margin line is absorbing the cost of tariffs and a portfolio cleanup.
Zacks’ earnings write-up on Nasdaq also highlighted that Q2 revenue and EPS topped estimates while noting continued weakness in Greater China and Nike Digital. [3]
The big issue: China is no longer a “temporary” problem for Nike
Nike’s Greater China results remain the most sensitive part of the story because the region was once treated as a long runway for growth—and is now a persistent drag.
Reuters described Nike’s China challenge as deepening, noting it was the sixth straight quarterly decline in China sales. The report also cited a steep drop in China footwear sales and emphasized intensifying competition from domestic brands such as Anta and Li-Ning. [4]
From an equity narrative standpoint, China creates a double bind:
- Top-line pressure: weaker demand and price competition weigh on revenue.
- Margin pressure: clearing older inventory and reworking the product mix tends to require promotions and write-downs, limiting gross margin recovery.
That’s why last week’s “beat” on revenue didn’t translate into investor confidence—Nike investors are effectively asking whether China can stabilize before the company’s margin math deteriorates further.
Tariffs and margins: Why Nike’s profitability is still the swing factor for NKE stock
Nike’s gross margin fell 300 bps in Q2 to 40.6%, and Nike’s earnings release explicitly flagged higher tariffs in North America as a key driver of the decline. [5]
Reuters added a sharper figure to that discussion: CFO Matthew Friend reiterated that steep U.S. tariffs on Southeast Asian nations where Nike manufactures much of its product base are expected to cost Nike about $1.5 billion in 2025. [6]
This is important for forecasting because investors generally tolerate short-term margin pain when it’s clearly tied to:
- a temporary demand slump, or
- a one-off reset.
But tariffs function more like a persistent cost layer, meaning Nike must respond through a combination of:
- targeted price increases,
- sourcing adjustments,
- product cost engineering, and
- stricter promotional discipline.
Barron’s framed it similarly: even with an earnings and revenue beat, the market fixated on falling profitability, higher tariffs, and weak China performance. [7]
Nike guidance: What management expects next quarter
Nike’s guidance is the other key reason the stock struggled after earnings: it told investors the next quarter still looks soft and margin-challenged—right into the holiday shopping period.
On the post-earnings outlook, Nike expects:
- Q3 revenue: down low single digits
- Q3 gross margin: down roughly 175–225 bps [8]
Zacks’ recap similarly relayed Nike’s view that Q3 revenues should decline low single digits and gross margin should be down ~175–225 bps. [9]
For investors, this guidance shapes the near-term debate: even if Nike’s product and marketing improvements are “working,” the P&L may still look messy for several quarters.
“Win Now” turnaround: What Nike’s CEO is changing in 2025
Today’s Nike coverage isn’t just about numbers—it’s also about how Elliott Hill is trying to rewire the company after several years of choppy execution.
Business Insider detailed five major themes in Hill’s turnaround approach, including:
- putting sport and athletes back at the center of decision-making,
- restructuring senior leadership (including a COO role and removing some roles),
- repairing wholesale relationships (including returning to Amazon and strengthening key retailers),
- pulling back on heavy promotions and using targeted price increases to help offset tariffs,
- updating flagship “House of Innovation” store concepts around sport-driven layouts. [10]
This matters for Nike stock because the market is effectively pricing a question of duration:
- If Hill’s changes drive a faster stabilization in China and a cleaner margin recovery, NKE can re-rate.
- If the reset takes longer, the stock can remain stuck in a low-confidence range even if revenue holds up.
That “timeline risk” shows up directly in analysts’ updated price targets.
Analyst forecasts for Nike stock: Price targets are being reset lower—but ratings are mixed
After earnings, the dominant sell-side action has been price target cuts, often with ratings held steady.
Recent examples (post-Q2 report):
- Barclays: price target cut to $64 from $70 (Equal Weight) [11]
- Citi: price target cut to $65 from $70 (Neutral) [12]
- UBS: price target cut to $62 from $71 (Neutral), with commentary that the turnaround may take longer and valuation still prices in a strong recovery [13]
- Piper Sandler: price target cut to $75 from $84 (Overweight), citing mixed regional performance and a longer turnaround arc [14]
- BofA Securities: price target cut to $73 from $84 (Buy), per a GuruFocus summary of the note [15]
At the same time, the broader “consensus target” discussion remains wide. For example, Nasdaq-hosted summaries cite an average one-year target around the mid-$80s (with a wide range between low and high estimates), illustrating how split analysts remain on the speed of the rebound. [16]
How to read this: when many firms cut targets but keep ratings, it typically signals higher uncertainty (especially around margins and China), not a blanket “sell Nike” consensus.
Nike earnings forecasts: What Wall Street expects for EPS and revenue
Consensus estimates are moving, but a widely cited snapshot from Zacks (via Nasdaq) currently points to:
- Next quarter consensus:$0.47 EPS on $11.39 billion revenue
- Current fiscal year consensus:$1.65 EPS on $46.72 billion revenue [17]
This is the bridge investors must cross: Nike needs to show that earnings expectations stabilize (or start moving up) even while it spends on marketing and navigates tariffs.
Estimate revisions—especially on gross margin—are likely to be the most important driver of NKE’s next major move.
Options market signal: Investors are actively hedging Nike stock
One subtle “today” signal comes from the options market.
TipRanks (citing TheFly) reported that Nike was among the names showing the greatest growth in open interest, including a notable new position size in Jan-26 $60 puts. [18]
This doesn’t predict direction by itself, but it does fit the current tape: many investors appear to be treating Nike as a stock with higher-than-normal headline risk (China commentary, tariff developments, promotional intensity) where hedging costs are justified.
What investors should watch next for Nike stock
Nike’s next chapter is likely to be decided by a short list of measurable signals—more than narrative.
1) China: stabilization first, growth later
Investors will be watching whether China declines become less severe, whether store refresh efforts translate to traffic, and whether Nike can rebuild brand heat without racing to the bottom on price. [19]
2) Margins: can Nike blunt tariffs without heavy discounting?
Nike has to prove it can defend pricing power while controlling promotions—and do it fast enough for the market to believe the margin trough is in sight. [20]
3) Channel mix: wholesale growth is good—until it isn’t
Wholesale strength can support revenue and visibility, but it can also dilute margin versus direct-to-consumer. The market wants evidence Nike can grow wholesale without turning it into a margin trade-off. [21]
4) Product pipeline and marketing ROI
Reuters previously reported Nike is investing in updated running lines like Pegasus Premium and Vomero 18 while scaling back certain legacy lifestyle volumes, and that marketing spend is expected to climb meaningfully. [22]
With the 2026 World Cup approaching, Nike has a high-profile marketing window—but investors will judge whether that spend produces sell-through, not just brand impressions. [23]
Bottom line on Nike stock (NKE) as of Dec. 22, 2025
Nike stock is trading like a classic “prove it” turnaround:
- The business can still beat on revenue and show pockets of strength (notably North America and wholesale). [24]
- But the market is demanding clearer evidence that China is stabilizing and that tariffs and promotions won’t structurally reset Nike’s margin profile. [25]
- Analyst price targets have been cut broadly after earnings, yet ratings remain mixed—suggesting investors are split between “temporary turbulence” and “longer rebuild.” [26]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. investors.nike.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. investors.nike.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.businessinsider.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.gurufocus.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. investors.nike.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. investors.nike.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investing.com
