NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) stock is trying to find its footing on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, after last week’s sharp post-earnings selloff and a heavy-volume slide on Monday. As of 15:26 UTC, Nike shares were trading around $57.28, near flat on the day, with an intraday range roughly $57.02–$57.58.
That price level matters because the market is no longer debating whether Nike is still a dominant global brand (it is)—it’s debating how long the company’s reset will take, how deep margin pressure will run, and whether the long-promised China turnaround can move from “plan” to “proof.”
Nike stock today: what the market is signaling on Dec. 23
The immediate backdrop for today’s trading is a stock that’s already been repriced lower—and is still struggling to rebuild investor confidence.
On Monday, Dec. 22, Nike shares closed at $57.22, down 2.54% for the session, marking a fifth straight day of losses. Trading volume was unusually high at roughly 38.4 million shares, more than double Nike’s recent average volume, a classic sign of institutions actively repositioning after a major catalyst. [1]
Nike is also trading far below its 52-week high of $82.44 (set Feb. 26), underscoring how dramatically sentiment has shifted from “premium brand” to “turnaround in progress.” [2]
The key reason Nike shares sold off: earnings beat, but the story got tougher
Nike’s fiscal Q2 2026 results (quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025) weren’t a headline miss. The company posted $12.4 billion in revenue (up about 1%) and $0.53 in diluted EPS. [3]
The market’s problem wasn’t the top line—it was what sat underneath it:
- Gross margin fell 300 basis points to 40.6%
- Net income fell 32% to about $0.8 billion
- NIKE Direct revenue declined 8% to $4.6 billion
- Converse revenue dropped 30% to $300 million [4]
In other words: modest growth, but weaker profitability—and a business mix shifting away from higher-margin direct sales.
Nike’s leadership framed this as a deliberate phase of the reset. CEO Elliott Hill said Nike is in the “middle innings” of its comeback, emphasizing portfolio rebalancing, partner relationships, and an “athlete-centered” innovation push. [5]
Investors, however, want a timetable. And right now, management isn’t handing out easy dates.
Regional performance: North America is doing the lifting, China is the drag
Nike’s regional split in Q2 made the central tension around the stock painfully clear:
- North America:$5.633B, +9%
- Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA):$3.392B, +3%
- Greater China:$1.423B, -17%
- Asia Pacific & Latin America (APLA):$1.667B, -4% [6]
This is why Nike stock has become a global macro bet wrapped inside a consumer brand. North America looks healthier. China is acting like a persistent headwind.
Reuters reported that China sales fell for a sixth straight quarter (down 17%), and highlighted that Nike’s China weakness is increasingly testing investor patience. [7]
China: the “prove it” market for Nike’s turnaround
Nike’s China challenge is no longer just “demand is soft.” The narrative is expanding into brand positioning, retail execution, and local competition.
Reuters noted that China represents roughly 15% of Nike’s annual revenue, and that footwear sales in China fell 21% in the quarter—brutal in a brand where footwear is the engine. [8]
Business Insider added a sharper cultural lens: analysts and experts quoted in its reporting argue Nike is dealing with a “cultural lag” in China as Gen Z consumers gravitate toward domestic brands like Anta and Li-Ning, and toward “Guochao” (national-trend) identity branding. The article also points to digital engagement gaps versus rivals using platforms such as WeChat and Douyin more aggressively. [9]
Nike’s CEO has acknowledged the need to “reset” the China approach, but executives have been cautious about offering a clear recovery timeline. [10]
Tariffs and margins: why investors are focused on profitability, not revenue
Nike’s margin pressure is a central reason the stock sold off even after a revenue/EPS beat.
In Nike’s own release, the company said the gross margin decline was “primarily due to higher tariffs in North America.” [11]
Reuters took that further, reporting CFO Matthew Friend reiterated that steep U.S. tariffs on Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs are expected to cost Nike about $1.5 billion this year, and that Nike guided for additional gross margin pressure in the current quarter (another 175–225 basis points of decline expected). [12]
This is the squeeze investors are modeling:
- Higher costs (tariffs)
- Mix shift (more wholesale, less direct-to-consumer)
- Inventory clearing and discounting during a product reset [13]
Even if demand stabilizes, the market wants to see the margin line stop bleeding.
Nike’s near-term outlook: the holiday quarter is expected to be down
The next quarter matters more than usual because it includes the holiday shopping season—and because it will test whether Nike’s reset can coexist with growth.
Reuters reported Nike expects fiscal Q3 revenue to be down in the low-single digits, versus analyst expectations around a smaller decline, and that the company anticipates continued margin pressure. [14]
Investopedia also reported CFO commentary suggesting China headwinds may persist for the rest of the fiscal year before Nike returns to growth there. [15]
That combination—soft revenue outlook plus margin compression—is why Nike shares remain under pressure this week.
Today’s analyst moves and forecasts: targets are lower, but the Street still sees upside
December 23 brought fresh “reset” signals from the analyst community.
Price targets: where consensus sits now
MarketScreener, citing FactSet-polled analyst data, shows Nike with:
- Mean consensus: “OUTPERFORM”
- Number of analysts: 39
- Average target price:$77.24
Against a last close near $57.22, that implies roughly 35% upside—on paper. [16]
MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot is similar, listing an average target around $78.14. [17]
The takeaway: Wall Street hasn’t abandoned Nike—but it has become much more conditional. The upside case exists, but it’s now tied to execution milestones (especially China + margin stabilization).
Notable changes on Dec. 23
- Argus cut its Nike price target to $70 from $85, while maintaining its rating (reported via MT Newswires). [18]
- Daiwa Securities reportedly lowered its target to $61 from $75, while still recommending the stock as a buy (also via MT Newswires/Zonebourse). [19]
Key post-earnings revisions still driving the tape this week
- Bank of America maintained a buy stance but cut its target to $73 from $84, per Investopedia’s summary of the note. [20]
- Piper Sandler lowered its target to $75 from $84 while maintaining an “Overweight” rating, according to Investing.com. [21]
- Barclays trimmed its target to $64 from $70 (Hold), highlighting tariff-driven margin pressure, per TipRanks. [22]
In plain English: analysts are still modeling a Nike recovery, but they’re pricing in more pain (and more time) along the way.
A quieter Dec. 23 headline: institutional ownership updates
While price targets grab attention, one of today’s news items points to how some investors are positioning.
MarketBeat reported that Exchange Traded Concepts LLC increased its Nike stake significantly (based on its latest Form 13F filing), ending the period with 228,889 shares valued around $15.96 million. [23]
A single 13F update doesn’t “prove” a bottom—but it does show that, at these levels, at least some allocators view Nike as investable again.
Dividends, cash, and balance sheet: support underneath the story
Nike’s balance sheet and shareholder returns remain part of the bull case—though not everyone agrees on how much support they provide.
Nike reported:
- Inventories:$7.7B, down 3%
- Cash + equivalents + short-term investments:$8.3B (down about $1.4B, partly due to dividends, repurchases, debt repayment, and capex)
- Dividend:$0.41 per share declared (Nike also highlighted 24 consecutive years of increasing dividend payouts) [24]
MarketBeat summarized the dividend as $0.41 quarterly (annualized $1.64) and characterized the yield around the high-2% range at current prices. [25]
At the same time, some bearish analysis published today argues Nike’s current fundamentals and margin compression make shareholder returns harder to sustain without a cleaner recovery. [26]
A longer shadow over Nike stock: credit pressure earlier this year
Today’s Nike stock story is dominated by earnings and China, but credit conditions have also been part of the narrative in 2025.
Reuters reported in November that Moody’s downgraded Nike’s debt ratings, citing cost pressures and weaker performance metrics (including reported declines in revenue and EBIT in fiscal 2025). [27]
That doesn’t move the stock day-to-day like an earnings call—but it reinforces why the market is laser-focused on restoring durable margins.
What investors are watching next
Nike’s next few months are less about hype cycles and more about operational proof. The market is effectively tracking a scoreboard:
- China: does the reset stabilize declines and improve digital/retail traction? [28]
- Margins: do tariffs and discounting pressures ease, and does the mix improve? [29]
- Direct-to-consumer: can Nike re-accelerate digital without sacrificing pricing power? [30]
- Timing: when does “middle innings” become visible momentum? [31]
For calendar-watchers, MarketScreener lists Nike’s Q3 FY2026 earnings release as projected for March 18, 2026. [32]
Bottom line on Nike stock (NKE) as of Dec. 23, 2025
Nike stock near $57 reflects a market that’s no longer paying a premium for brand power alone. The latest quarter showed resilience in North America and a revenue/EPS beat, but also intensifying pressure in Greater China and margin headwinds tied to tariffs and channel mix. [33]
Analyst targets have been cut, yet consensus targets still cluster around the high-$70s, implying sizable upside—if Nike can execute the next phase of its turnaround. [34]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. investors.nike.com, 4. investors.nike.com, 5. investors.nike.com, 6. investors.nike.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.businessinsider.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. investors.nike.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.marketscreener.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketscreener.com, 19. ch.zonebourse.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. investors.nike.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. seekingalpha.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. investors.nike.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.marketscreener.com, 33. investors.nike.com, 34. www.marketscreener.com
