Nike Stock (NKE) Today: Price, Latest News, Forecasts and Analysis – December 6, 2025

Updated: December 6, 2025 – for informational purposes only, not investment advice.

Key takeaways

• Nike stock (NKE) closed around $65.86 on December 5, 2025, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $97 billion and valuing it at about 33–34x trailing earnings with a dividend yield near 2.4–2.5%. ^[1]
• Wall Street remains broadly positive: 24–36 covering analysts have an average 12‑month price target between $82–$83, implying ~25–26% upside from current levels, with consensus ratings of “Moderate Buy / Buy.” ^[2]
• Fresh fundamental update: Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue rose 1% to $11.7 billion, but EPS fell 30% and gross margin dropped 320 bps, highlighting ongoing margin and China pressures even as Nike’s wholesale business returned to growth. ^[3]
• New catalysts:
  • Q2 FY26 earnings due December 18, 2025 (after market close). ^[4]
  • Dividend raised to $0.41 per share (payable January 2, 2026), Nike’s 24th consecutive annual increase. ^[5]
  • Senior leadership overhaul under CEO Elliott Hill to speed up the “Win Now” and “sport offense” turnaround strategy. ^[6]
• Valuation debate is intense: a new Simply Wall St analysis (December 6, 2025) argues that at around $65, Nike screens fair-to-slightly overvalued, with a DCF fair value near $62 and a premium P/E versus peers. ^[7]
• Technical models are cautious: Intellectia’s AI‑driven technical forecast now rates NKE a “Sell/Strong Sell” candidate in the short term, citing a falling trend, resistance near $67–$69 and support around $61–$59. ^[8]

Nike stock today: price and performance snapshot

As of the close on December 5, 2025, Nike’s Class B shares (ticker: NKE) traded at $65.86, up 0.26% on the day. ^[9]

Key snapshot metrics:

• Share price: ~$65.86
• Market cap: ≈ $97.3 billion ^[10]
• Trailing P/E: ~33–34x earnings
• Forward P/E: ~26x (based on projected earnings rebound) ^[11]
• Dividend (TTM): about $1.61–$1.64 per share, ~2.4–2.7% yield at the current price ^[12]

Performance:

• 2025 year‑to‑date: roughly –13% ^[13]
• Last 3 years: around –40% total return
• Last 5 years: around –50%, despite steady dividends and buybacks. ^[14]

That combination of brand strength + weak share performance is exactly why so much recent analysis is focused on whether Nike is now a long‑term opportunity or a classic value trap.

The freshest news driving Nike stock on December 6, 2025

1. New valuation deep-dive: “fairly priced” but not a screaming bargain

On December 6, 2025, Simply Wall St published a detailed valuation breakdown of NKE at around $65. ^[15]

Highlights from that piece (paraphrased):

• Multiyear underperformance:
  • ~–36.5% over three years
  • ~–48.5% over five years, despite a modest rebound in recent weeks. ^[16]
• DCF fair value estimate: about $62 per share, only ~6% below the current price – suggesting the stock is slightly overvalued but close to “about right.” ^[17]
• Price‑to‑earnings vs peers:
  • Nike trades around 33.6x earnings
  • Industry average closer to 21.5x, and a “fair” multiple for Nike based on their model nearer 27.9x. ^[18]

Their conclusion: Nike looks like a quality business at a premium price, not a distressed bargain. The analysis frames NKE as a stock where investors need to build their own forward narrative (tariffs, China, wholesale vs DTC, product cycle) rather than rely on simple multiples.

2. RBC reaffirms $85 price target and “Outperform” rating

On December 4, 2025, RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating on Nike with a $85 price target, implying roughly 29% upside from the mid‑$60s. ^[19]

Key points from RBC’s latest note:

• They believe Nike is nearing the end of its “heavy‑lifting inventory clean‑up phase”, setting up a healthier inventory position entering 2026. ^[20]
• The firm expects revenue and earnings to stabilize in fiscal Q3 2026 (calendar Q1 2026), which they argue should be taken positively by investors. ^[21]
• RBC points to a product pipeline tied to:
  • 2026 Football World Cup jerseys
  • refreshed footwear lines
  • new basketball offerings in early 2026. ^[22]

The same report notes Moody’s downgrade of Nike’s senior unsecured notes from A1 to A2 (still investment grade, with a stable outlook) and highlights BTIG’s Buy rating making Nike one of its top picks for 2026 — reinforcing the idea that many institutional players see a turnaround forming rather than a decline story. ^[23]

3. Leadership overhaul to accelerate “Win Now” and “sport offense”

On December 2, 2025, Nike announced significant senior leadership changes aimed at cutting layers and speeding execution. ^[24]

Key changes:

• Creation of a new Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer (COO) role, filled by long‑time supply chain leader Venkatesh Alagirisamy (“Venky”). He will now oversee technology, supply chain, planning, operations, manufacturing and sustainability end‑to‑end. ^[25]
• Elimination of the separate Chief Technology Officer and Chief Commercial Officer roles; former CCO Craig Williams is leaving the company. ^[26]
• Geography leaders (North America, EMEA, Greater China and APLA) are being elevated directly to the senior leadership team, bringing the regional view closer to the CEO. ^[27]
• Global Sales and Nike Direct now report to CFO Matt Friend, giving him a broader remit that connects strategy, financials, wholesale and direct channels. ^[28]

CEO Elliott Hill frames these moves as all about “growth and offense”, not cost‑cutting for its own sake, and as a way to make the “sport offense” re‑orientation more agile and tech‑enabled. ^[29]

For investors, this matters because it:

• Ties technology and operations together (potentially improving inventory and margin management)
• Shortens the path between the regions, the CFO, and the CEO, which could help Nike respond faster to tariff disruptions and local market changes.

4. Dividend increase and income profile

On November 20, 2025, Nike’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share, payable on January 2, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 1. ^[30]

Details:

• This is a 3% increase from the prior $0.40 quarterly dividend.
• Marks 24 consecutive years of dividend raises, cementing Nike’s status as a steadily growing income name. ^[31]
• At the current share price, the new dividend implies a forward yield around 2.5–2.7%, with a payout ratio that various sources place in the 70–80% range of current depressed earnings. ^[32]

That payout looks high relative to 2025’s weak earnings, but analysts generally expect EPS to rebound in 2026–2027, which would make the new dividend more comfortable if management delivers on its plan. ^[33]

5. Upcoming Q2 FY26 earnings: December 18, 2025

Nike will report second‑quarter fiscal 2026 results on December 18, 2025, after the market close, followed by a conference call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time. ^[34]

Expectations and context:

• Management has already guided for a low‑single‑digit decline in Q2 revenue, after the surprise Q1 revenue growth. ^[35]
• Investors will watch closely for:
  • updated tariff cost estimates (currently around $1.5 billion impact for the year) ^[36]
  • progress on inventory normalization
  • any color on Greater China, where sales have fallen for five consecutive quarters. ^[37]

That makes December 18 a major catalyst for NKE in the second half of the month and into early 2026.

How is Nike actually performing? The post‑earnings picture

Q1 FY26: a fragile but real turnaround

For its first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended August 31, 2025) Nike reported: ^[38]

• Revenue: $11.7 billion, +1% year‑over‑year on a reported basis (vs. analysts expecting a sizable decline).
• Gross margin:42.2%, down 320 basis points year‑over‑year, reflecting higher discounts, channel mix and tariffs.
• EPS (diluted):$0.49, down 30% vs the prior year, but well ahead of analyst estimates (~$0.26–$0.27).
• Nike Direct: –4% reported, –5% currency‑neutral, pressured by a double‑digit decline in digital sales.
• Wholesale: +7% reported, +5% currency‑neutral, showing early success in re‑embracing wholesale partners.
• Converse: Revenue down 27% as that brand continues to struggle.

Reuters characterizes the quarter as a “surprise rise in revenue and profit beat” showing that the turnaround is taking hold, but warns that China weakness and tariff‑driven margin pressure remain serious headwinds. ^[39]

Notably:

• Management does not expect the direct‑to‑consumer (DTC) business to return to growth in FY26, which is a big shift from earlier Nike narratives centered on digital and DTC. ^[40]
• They do, however, expect wholesale to grow for the full fiscal year, a reversal from prior years where wholesale was de‑emphasized. ^[41]

Fiscal 2025 recap: a rough baseline

The just‑completed fiscal 2025 (year ended May 31, 2025) creates the low bar that Nike is now trying to clear: ^[42]

• Full‑year revenue: $46.3 billion, down 10% vs FY24
• Full‑year EPS:$2.16, down 42%
• Gross margin:42.7%, down 190 bps
• Q4 revenue: down 12%; Q4 EPS collapsed 86% to $0.14

These numbers explain why credit raters and some equity analysts have grown more cautious — and why Nike is pushing the “Win Now” and “sport offense” turnaround agenda so aggressively.

What are analysts saying about Nike stock now?

Despite the messy fundamentals, sell‑side sentiment remains surprisingly constructive.

Street consensus: Moderate Buy with ~25–26% upside

Two major aggregators summarize Wall Street views as of early December 2025:

• MarketBeat:
  • 36 analysts over the last year
  • Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
  • Breakdown: 1 Sell, 6 Hold, 29 Buy/Strong Buy
  • Average 12‑month target:$82.24
  • Range: $58 – $115
  • Implied upside vs $65.90 close: 24.8% ^[43]
• StockAnalysis:
  • 24 covering analysts
  • Consensus: “Buy”
  • Average target:$83.17, with a $68–$115 range
  • Implied upside: 26.28% from $65.86 ^[44]

Recent rating actions skew positive, including upgrades from Wells Fargo, KeyBanc, TD Cowen, Jefferies, Argus and HSBC through 2025, often citing the potential for a 2026 earnings recovery once tariffs, inventory and China pressures moderate. ^[45]

Valuation vs growth outlook

Using Finviz and Nike’s own filings, the stock currently trades at: ^[46]

• P/E (TTM): ~33.7x
• Forward P/E: ~26x
• Price‑to‑sales: ~2.1x on trailing revenue of $46.5B
• Dividend yield: ~2.4–2.5%, with high single‑digit dividend growth over 3–5 years

Analysts expect:

• Revenue to grow from about $47.2B this year to ~$49.6B next year (~5% growth).
• EPS to rebound by ~50% next year (from ~1.68 to ~2.53), off the depressed FY25 base. ^[47]

That combination — mid‑single‑digit revenue growth but sharp EPS recovery — is the core of the bull case: the idea that Nike’s problems are cyclical/operational rather than structural.

Is Nike stock cheap, expensive, or “about right”?

The valuation debate is very active, and the latest analyses show clear tension between fundamentals and market pricing.

Simply Wall St: fair value around $62, P/E premium looks rich

The December 6, 2025 Simply Wall St note makes three big points: ^[48]

1. DCF fair value ≈ $62:
   • Their two‑stage free cash flow to equity model projects FCF rising from about $2.9B to ~$5.9B by 2030, then discounts back to today, yielding fair value around $62/share.
   • With NKE trading slightly above that, they see the stock as a bit expensive, but not wildly mispriced.
2. P/E vs “fair” P/E:
   • Current P/E ≈ 33.6x
   • Their “fair ratio” model suggests ~27.9x would better match Nike’s growth, margins and risk profile.
   • That implies investors are paying a premium for the brand and for a successful turnaround.
3. Narrative divergence:
   • Some community valuations on their platform cluster around $77 fair value, others closer to $97, reflecting very different views on how quickly growth and margins can recover.

Market multiples and quality premium

From a classic multiples standpoint, Nike looks like:

• A global, asset‑light consumer brand
• With temporarily depressed earnings
• But still trading at a premium multiple versus apparel and footwear peers, thanks to its brand, global reach and balance sheet. ^[49]

Whether that premium is justified comes down to:

• How durable tariff headwinds are
• How fast Greater China returns to growth
• Whether re‑embracing wholesale and revamping leadership actually restores mid‑teens ROIC and higher margins.

Technical picture: what short‑term models are signaling

While the Street’s fundamental view is mostly bullish, technical models are more cautious right now.

An AI‑driven forecast from Intellectia (as of December 6–7, 2025) notes: ^[50]

• NKE has 2 buy and 4 sell signals, with an overall rating of Sell / Strong Sell for the near term.
• The stock has gained about 7% over the last 10 trading days, but with declining volume, which they flag as a potential early warning sign.
• Technical structure:
  • Short‑term moving averages (5‑day over 20‑day) look constructive
  • But the 20‑day MA is still below the 60‑day, and the 60‑day sits below the 200‑day, indicating a bearish medium‑to‑long‑term trend.
• Key levels they highlight:
  • Resistance: around $67.4 and $69.3
  • Support: near $61.1 and $59.1

Their 2026 forecast envisions NKE trading in a wide channel between roughly $40 and $74, reflecting the uncertainty around the turnaround and macro backdrop. ^[51]

For short‑term traders, that suggests:

• Upside may be constrained without a clear catalyst (like a strong Q2 earnings beat or improved China commentary).
• Downside risk becomes more apparent if the stock fails at the high‑$60s and slips back toward the low‑$60s support region.

Key risks and catalysts to watch

Main risks

1. Tariffs and geopolitics
   • Nike now expects tariffs to cost roughly $1.5 billion this fiscal year, up from earlier estimates of about $1 billion. ^[52]
   • Any escalation in trade tensions or new duties on footwear and apparel could further compress margins.
2. China slowdown and local competition
   • Greater China sales have fallen for five straight quarters, and management admits recovery there will take longer than in North America. ^[53]
   • Domestic brands like Anta and Li‑Ning, plus global rivals such as On and Hoka (Deckers), are taking share in key categories. ^[54]
3. Digital and DTC reset
   • Nike’s DTC business — once the star of the growth story — is not expected to return to growth in FY26, and digital sales are down double digits. ^[55]
   • Successfully rebalancing between wholesale, digital and owned stores without diluting brand cachet will be tricky.
4. Margin repair
   • Gross margin has been hit by discounts, channel mix, tariffs and higher product costs; even after Q1’s beat, margins remain well below pre‑slowdown levels. ^[56]

Main catalysts

1. Q2 FY26 earnings (December 18, 2025)
   • Any sign that revenue declines are shallower than guided, or that margins are stabilizing faster than expected, could validate the bullish analyst targets. ^[57]
2. Product cycle & major events
   • The 2026 Football World Cup and continued innovation in running and basketball give Nike a chance to re‑assert product leadership globally. ^[58]
3. Further leadership and structural changes
   • The new COO role and reconfigured senior team put more accountability on operations, tech and the regional leaders; if this starts to show up in cleaner inventory and better regional performance, sentiment could improve. ^[59]
4. Macro & rates
   • A friendlier macro backdrop — especially lower interest rates and improved consumer confidence — typically benefits discretionary names like Nike and could support both volumes and multiples.

What this means for different types of investors

Again, this is not advice, but framing:

• Long‑term brand investors may see Nike as a blue‑chip franchise in a temporary slump, now offering:
  • A higher dividend yield than usual
  • A chance to benefit if margins normalize and China eventually recovers.
• Value‑oriented investors may be more skeptical, noting that:
  • Revenue has been shrinking, not just slowing
  • Earnings have been cut nearly in half in a few years
  • The stock still trades at a premium multiple vs peers, even on depressed earnings.
• Short‑term traders will likely focus on:
  • How NKE trades around the $67–$69 resistance zone and $61–$59 support
  • The Q2 earnings reaction on December 18
  • Headline risk around tariffs, China and leadership changes.

Whatever your angle, position sizing, diversification and independent research are key. Nike is still a single stock with real risks, even if the swoosh is one of the strongest consumer brands on the planet.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

References

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