Dec. 18, 2025 — NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) is in the spotlight today as investors brace for the company’s fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings report due after the market close. Shares have been trading in the mid-$60s range, with Nike’s investor site showing an intraday range of $65.56–$67.81 and a 52-week range of $52.28–$82.44. [1]
The timing matters: for the market, this isn’t just another quarterly print. It’s a high-pressure “progress check” on CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan—whether Nike can stabilize sales, clean up inventory, and regain heat against fast-growing rivals without sacrificing margins for too long. [2]
When Nike reports today and why this quarter is a make-or-break narrative moment
Nike has said it will release fiscal Q2 FY2026 results on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025 at ~1:15 p.m. PT, followed by a management conference call at 2:00 p.m. PT. [3]
Analysts and financial media have framed the report as a key test because Nike has pulled back from issuing full-year forecasts in recent quarters, shifting investor attention toward near-term guidance and signs of sequential improvement (i.e., “is next quarter less bad than the last?”). [4]
Wall Street’s Nike earnings forecasts for Q2 FY2026
Across major previews published around Dec. 18, 2025, expectations are broadly aligned: modestly lower revenue year over year, and sharply lower profit as promotions and higher costs weigh on margins.
Key consensus-style estimates cited today include:
- Revenue: roughly $12.2 billion (about -1% year over year) [5]
- Adjusted EPS: about $0.37–$0.38, roughly half of the year-ago quarter [6]
- Net income: projected to fall more than 50% to roughly $562 million (per LSEG data cited in Reuters) [7]
- Gross margin: expected around 40.77%, down from 42.2% in the prior quarter (per Reuters) [8]
The market’s real obsession, though, is not just “beat or miss.” It’s whether Nike can show that discounting and inventory actions are becoming less disruptive—without losing more share to competitors that currently look “newer” and “faster.” [9]
The big strategic story: Nike’s marketing push gets louder, but may not lift earnings quickly
One of the most-cited themes in today’s Nike stock coverage: Nike is leaning hard into a bigger marketing budget to claw back mindshare and market share, but analysts warn it could take time for that spend to translate into cleaner financials.
Reuters reports Nike’s marketing investment is expected to top $5 billion in 2026, up from $4.68 billion in fiscal 2025 (LSEG data), and notes Nike had nearly 60 marketing and communications roles open and even hosted a rare communications job fair in New York this week. [10]
The logic is straightforward: Nike can’t “discount” its way back to premium brand energy. It needs product stories and cultural moments again—especially in performance categories where challengers have been gaining. [11]
Product and category watch: running strength vs. basketball and lifestyle uncertainty
Several previews point to running as a relative bright spot—helped by refreshed lines including Vomero 18 and Pegasus Premium—while Nike’s larger basketball and lifestyle businesses remain the harder rebuild. [12]
Barron’s specifically highlights that running momentum has looked more encouraging than Nike’s basketball and casual wear segments, which together represent a large share of sales and are still under scrutiny. [13]
In other words: if the earnings call sounds confident about running but vague about lifestyle/basketball recovery, investors may interpret that as “progress, but not enough yet.”
Tariffs and margin pressure: the “quiet tax” haunting Nike’s turnaround
Tariffs are still one of the big structural headwinds hanging over Nike stock.
Investopedia notes that tariff costs are projected at about $1.5 billion annually, which complicates Nike’s attempt to rebuild margins while it clears older inventory through promotions. [14]
Reuters adds detail that Nike has cited exposure to high-tariff manufacturing countries such as Vietnam, and frames tariffs—plus discounting—as a core reason investors aren’t expecting an immediate earnings rebound even if brand initiatives look directionally right. [15]
China: still the hardest geography, with macro not helping
China remains a recurring “pressure point” in Nike stock analysis going into the print.
Barron’s notes Nike’s Q1 sales in China dropped 9%, reinforcing concerns that recovery in the region is taking longer than investors hoped. [16]
Reuters describes China as intensely competitive (citing local brands such as Anta and Li-Ning) and notes the region accounts for about 15% of Nike’s sales. [17]
Adding to the challenge: recent China macro data has signaled weaker momentum, including soft retail sales growth—an environment that tends to make premium global brands fight harder for each unit of demand. [18]
Analyst ratings and price targets: bullish long-term, cautious near-term
Today’s Nike stock outlook is a classic “messy middle” setup: many analysts still see upside if the turnaround takes hold, but they’re wary of near-term volatility and margin pain.
Examples of current targets and stances highlighted in today’s coverage include:
- Oppenheimer: reiterates Outperform with a $120 price target [19]
- Evercore ISI:Outperform, $90 target [20]
- Piper Sandler:Overweight, $84 target [21]
- Stifel:Hold, $68 target (as cited in the same analyst roundup) [22]
Meanwhile, broader consensus snapshots show targets clustering in the low-to-mid $80s, with a wide dispersion between the most bearish and most bullish views (one MarketWatch consensus snapshot lists low $38 / high $120 with a median around the mid-$80s). [23]
The wide range is telling: the Street is effectively arguing about timeline more than destination—how long Nike’s margin reset and marketplace cleanup will last before cleaner growth returns.
Options market check: traders are bracing for a sharp post-earnings move
If you want a real-time temperature check on uncertainty, look at options pricing.
Investopedia reports options markets were implying roughly a ~7% move following earnings. [24]
TipRanks puts the implied reaction in a similar neighborhood (high-7% to low-8% depending on the update). [25]
Translation: even if you’re a long-term investor, short-term traders are pricing this earnings event like a potential “gap move” catalyst.
What Nike investors will watch most closely in today’s earnings call
Based on today’s previews and analyst commentary, here are the checkpoints most likely to move Nike shares after the close:
- Inventory and discounting
Is Nike still clearing old product aggressively, or is it inching back toward a healthier full-price mix? [26] - Gross margin trajectory
Reuters flags margin pressure expectations; investors will listen for language suggesting stabilization—or further deterioration. [27] - China trends and strategy
Any sign that declines are moderating (or worsening) can have outsized impact because China is both large and strategically important. [28] - Product pipeline credibility
Running has momentum (Pegasus Premium, Vomero 18), but the bigger question is whether Nike can reignite broader demand across core franchises. [29] - Demand creation (marketing) spend and ROI
Nike’s marketing ramp is real. The Street now wants proof it’s sharpening product stories and accelerating sell-through—not just increasing expense. [30] - Near-term guidance (especially Q3)
Because Nike has stepped back from long-range guidance, the next-quarter outlook often becomes the key “tell” on sequential improvement. [31]
The bottom line for Nike stock on Dec. 18, 2025
Nike stock is entering earnings day with a narrative that’s oddly balanced: the turnaround plan under CEO Elliott Hill has visible “green shoots” (notably in running and wholesale relationship repair), but the company is still wrestling with discounting, tariffs, and an uneven recovery in China. [32]
That combination is why the market’s focus is likely to land on trajectory more than today’s numbers: evidence that Nike can exit the promotional slog, protect brand heat, and rebuild margins—without losing more ground to the challengers nipping at its heels.
References
1. investors.nike.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. investors.nike.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.barrons.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.barrons.com, 32. www.barrons.com
