NEW YORK — As of 3:01 p.m. ET on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) shares are trading around $60.52, up about 0.9% on the day.
Nike’s move is unfolding in a light, post-Christmas trading session with the major U.S. indexes hovering near record territory and showing limited conviction either way—typical of late-December tape, when liquidity can thin and single-stock catalysts matter more. [1]
What’s different for Nike this week: a rare, high-profile insider signal from Apple CEO Tim Cook, paired with fresh debate about whether CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan is gaining traction—or simply getting more expensive.
Why Nike stock is up today: Tim Cook’s purchase—and what it signals
Nike shares have been reacting to disclosures that Tim Cook (Nike’s lead independent director) bought 50,000 shares in an open-market purchase at $58.97 per share on Dec. 22, a transaction worth roughly $3 million. [2]
Cook’s filing shows he now holds 105,480 Nike shares following the transaction—an unusually visible vote of confidence for a company working through a multi-quarter reset. [3]
Reuters reported this was the largest open-market stock purchase for a Nike director or executive in over a decade, citing Baird equity analyst Jonathan Komp, who framed the buy as a positive signal for progress under Hill’s “Win Now” actions. [4]
Cook wasn’t alone: Reuters also noted Nike director Robert Swan bought roughly $500,000 worth of shares around the same period. [5]
The market tends to treat insider buying as “information with skin in the game”—not a guarantee of upside, but a clue that leadership thinks the risk/reward has improved after a pullback.
The bigger driver: Nike’s latest earnings showed resilience—but margin pain deepened
The insider catalyst landed just days after Nike reported fiscal 2026 second-quarter results (quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025) that were better than feared on revenue, but still uncomfortable on profitability and near-term outlook.
Key numbers from Nike’s earnings release:
- Revenue: $12.4 billion
- Net income: $792 million (down year over year)
- Diluted EPS: $0.52 (non-GAAP measures were also discussed by the company)
- Gross margin: 40.6% (down 300 basis points)
- Inventory: $7.7 billion (down 3%)
- Shareholder returns: $598 million returned via dividends during the quarter [6]
Reuters added critical context to those headline figures: China revenue fell 17% for the sixth straight quarter of decline, and Nike warned that gross margin pressure is likely to continue, with the company expecting another margin decline in the current quarter. [7]
Nike CEO Elliott Hill’s message on the call was bluntly mixed: progress, but not satisfaction. On Nike’s official transcript, Hill described the quarter as “slightly better” than expected, while emphasizing the company is still in the “middle innings” of its comeback. [8]
That “middle innings” metaphor became a flashpoint. Investors weren’t just looking for optimism—they wanted a timetable.
The three pressure points investors are watching: tariffs, China, and the wholesale pivot
1) Tariffs are a real, quantifiable headwind
Nike’s leadership has repeatedly pointed to tariffs as a major drag. Reuters reported CFO Matthew Friend reiterated expectations that tariffs tied to manufacturing regions in Southeast Asia would cost Nike about $1.5 billion this year. [9]
That matters because even if demand stabilizes, a tariff shock can compress margins quickly—especially when a company is also discounting to clear inventory.
2) China is no longer a “timing issue”—it’s the central debate
By Nike’s own framing, China is at the top of the lagging list. Hill told investors the China reset will take time and requires a different approach for a marketplace that is more monobrand and digital-first. [10]
Reuters captured the growing impatience on Wall Street through analyst commentary. Morningstar analyst David Swartz called out ongoing weakness and described continued poor China results as a concern. [11]
3) The wholesale strategy helps revenue mix—but can hurt margins in the short term
Nike has been trying to repair and deepen relationships with wholesale partners (including major U.S. retailers) to regain visibility and distribution strength—especially after years of channel reshaping.
But as Reuters noted, selling through third parties can come with lower pricing power than direct-to-consumer, and Nike’s inventory-clearing efforts have leaned heavily on discounting, compounding margin pressure. [12]
The turnaround plan: “Win Now” actions, marketing spend, and a product pipeline reset
Nike’s turnaround is not just a cost-cutting story—it’s also a demand-creation story, and management is spending accordingly.
In a pre-earnings deep dive, Reuters reported Nike was hiring aggressively in marketing/communications and that demand-creation investment (marketing spend) is expected to top $5 billion in 2026, based on LSEG data. [13]
That spending split analysts:
- Mari Shor, senior equities analyst at Columbia Threadneedle (which holds Nike), told Reuters the marketing push can be interpreted as bullish—suggesting Nike feels better about product, while also acknowledging it needs to invest behind it. [14]
- At the same time, Reuters’ framing was clear: a bigger marketing budget may not translate into better earnings “just yet,” especially while tariffs and discounting pressure margins. [15]
On product, Nike’s transcript emphasizes a renewed pipeline and sport-driven focus—especially in running—along with upcoming innovation platforms and major sports moments into 2026. [16]
Hill also cited NikeSKIMS (Nike’s partnership with SKIMS) as a newer initiative with runway, including international expansion after a North America rollout. [17]
What analysts and investors are saying now: “costing real money” vs. “positive signal”
The current Nike narrative has two competing truths:
- Insiders and some analysts see a credible path forward, even if it’s messy.
- The turnaround is expensive and uneven, and the market wants proof—not metaphors.
Reuters quoted David Bartosiak (Zacks Investment Research) saying the results reminded investors the turnaround is “costing real money,” highlighting resilience on the top line but pressure on earnings power. [18]
Meanwhile, the Tim Cook buy strengthened the “internal confidence” case. Beyond Baird’s Komp, Reuters also quoted David Sowerby (Ancora Advisors) calling Cook’s purchase a modest positive—while noting Ancora previously sold its Nike stake, citing the lingering effects of past leadership and concerns including inventory and innovation. [19]
This is the core tension investors are trading:
- Is Nike in a temporary margin valley on the way to a brand/product rebound?
- Or is this a longer structural reset with China and competition reducing the old playbook’s reliability?
Forecasts and price targets: consensus points higher, but targets are getting trimmed
After earnings, multiple firms have adjusted targets and ratings—often down, reflecting slower recovery assumptions.
Examples tracked in recent analyst-note reporting:
- UBS lowered its price target to $62 while keeping a Neutral stance, per TheFly. [20]
- Citigroup lowered its Nike target to $65 (Neutral), also via TheFly coverage. [21]
- Bernstein trimmed its target to $85 while keeping an Outperform rating, citing a slower-than-expected turnaround timeline. [22]
On broader consensus, data aggregators compiling analyst targets still show meaningful upside from current levels, but with wide dispersion (a sign of genuine disagreement, not a neat consensus). For example, MarketBeat lists an average target in the mid-$70s with a wide high/low range. [23]
Translation: Wall Street hasn’t given up on Nike—but it’s repricing the timeline.
If you’re trading or holding Nike into the close: what to watch before the next session
U.S. markets are open right now (regular NYSE hours), and this is a year-end, post-holiday tape—a setup where late-day flows can exaggerate moves. [24]
Here are the practical, non-hype items investors are watching into today’s close and into the next trading day:
1) Follow-through after insider buying
A single insider buy can spark a bounce; what matters next is whether Nike holds gains when the headline is no longer fresh. Watch how shares behave in the final hour and into Monday’s session (Dec. 29).
2) Any incremental tariff headlines
Tariffs have been a direct hit to Nike’s margin math, and management has quantified the impact at $1.5 billion. Any news that changes tariff expectations can move the stock quickly. [25]
3) China datapoints and competitive read-through
China remains the biggest “prove it” market. Nike has said it will adapt its approach and that the reset will take time—investors will look for measurable traction, not just strategic language. [26]
4) The discounting question
Nike’s margin pressure is tied to both tariffs and discounting/clearing older inventory. Investors will watch for signs that promotions are easing without sacrificing demand—an especially relevant issue coming out of the holiday shopping period. [27]
5) The next catalyst: earnings in March
Nike’s next earnings release is widely expected around March 19, 2026, according to Zacks’ earnings calendar. That report will be the next major checkpoint for whether the “Win Now” actions are translating into cleaner margins and a better growth trajectory. [28]
Bottom line
Nike stock is trading higher today in a quiet, post-holiday market, helped by a rare and highly visible insider purchase from Tim Cook. [29]
But the larger debate hasn’t changed: Nike’s top line is proving resilient, yet profitability is under strain from tariffs, discounting, and persistent China weakness—and management is asking investors to accept a longer, uneven comeback. [30]
For investors, the near-term question isn’t whether Nike is still a global brand powerhouse. It is. The question is whether the company can rebuild momentum and expand margins at the same time—and whether the market will keep funding that transition while the “middle innings” continue.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. investors.nike.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. s1.q4cdn.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. s1.q4cdn.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. s1.q4cdn.com, 17. s1.q4cdn.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. s1.q4cdn.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.zacks.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com
