Nokia Oyj stock has re‑entered the global spotlight in 2025, powered by a powerful cocktail of AI infrastructure demand, a $1 billion strategic investment from Nvidia, and a flurry of 5G contracts across Europe, Asia and the Americas. At the same time, valuation models and technical signals are split on whether the recent rally still has room to run.
This deep‑dive pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analysis on Nokia Oyj stock as of December 7, 2025, based on information available up to the market close on Friday, December 5.
Where Nokia Oyj’s share price stands now
As of Nokia’s latest published investor relations data, the company’s primary Helsinki listing NOKIA.HE closed at €5.23 on Nasdaq Helsinki on December 5, 2025, down 1.58% on the day. The New York–listed ADR NOK finished the same session at $6.07, a 1.46% daily decline. [1]
MarketWatch notes that Friday’s close leaves the ADR about 25–26% below its 52‑week high of $8.19, reached on October 28, 2025, even after a strong run earlier in the year. [2]
According to data from Investing.com and Barchart, Nokia’s ADR has traded in a 52‑week range of roughly $4.00–$8.19, with a one‑year price gain of around 43%, and currently changes hands at about 33× trailing earnings and 1.5× book value. [3]
In other words:
- The stock is well off its late‑October peak, but
- It still reflects a significant rerating vs. 2024,
- And trades at moderate valuation multiples for a telecom equipment and network infrastructure vendor.
The big story: Q3 earnings beat and an AI‑driven turnaround narrative
Q3 2025 results: AI and optical networks steal the show
On October 23, 2025, Nokia reported third‑quarter 2025 results that decisively beat market expectations and helped reframe the stock’s story around AI and cloud infrastructure. [4]
Key highlights from Reuters’ summary of the quarter:
- Comparable operating profit hit €435 million, far above analyst expectations of about €342 million.
- Group net sales rose 12% year‑on‑year to €4.83 billion, beating the €4.6 billion consensus, powered by strong growth in Optical Networks and cloud‑related services. [5]
- AI and cloud data‑centre customers already account for roughly 6% of group net sales and 14% of network‑infrastructure revenue, underlining how quickly the AI “super‑cycle” is feeding into Nokia’s order book. [6]
- Optical networks revenue grew around 19% (constant currency), offsetting prior weakness in mobile‑network spending. [7]
On the back of this, Nokia nudged its 2025 comparable operating‑profit guidance up to a range of €1.7–2.2 billion, from a prior ceiling of €2.1 billion, partly due to changes in how it reports venture‑fund investments. [8]
Investors cheered: shares on the Helsinki exchange jumped more than 10% to around €5.20, their highest level in over three years, adding roughly €3 billion to Nokia’s market value in a single session. [9]
The message from management was clear: AI and data‑centre demand is now a core growth engine, not a side bet.
Nvidia’s $1 billion bet and Nokia’s new AI‑focused strategy
Nvidia takes a 2.9% stake – and lights a fire under the stock
On October 28, 2025, Nokia announced that Nvidia would invest $1 billion in the company, subscribing to 166.4 million new shares at €6.01 each. The deal gives Nvidia a 2.9% equity stake and formalises a strategic partnership to embed Nvidia’s GPUs and AI software deeper into Nokia’s telecom and data‑centre platforms. [10]
The Financial Times reported that the announcement sent Nokia’s shares up roughly 20–21% in a day, boosting its market capitalisation by about €6.7 billion and marking one of the sharpest single‑session moves in the company’s recent history. [11]
From an equity story point of view, Nvidia’s involvement achieves three things:
- Signals credibility: An AI bellwether is willing to put real capital behind Nokia’s network‑infrastructure roadmap.
- Strengthens balance sheet firepower: The fresh equity bolsters cash for R&D and capex around 5G‑Advanced, cloud networking and eventually 6G. [12]
- Repositions Nokia in investors’ minds from “legacy telecom vendor” toward “critical AI infrastructure supplier”.
New 2028 profit target and a re‑wired operating model
Less than a month later, on November 19, 2025, Nokia unveiled a new AI‑centric strategy and long‑term financial target. [13]
According to Nokia’s stock‑exchange release and Reuters:
- From 2026, Nokia will be organised into two main business segments:
- Network Infrastructure (fixed, IP, optical and related solutions), and
- Mobile Infrastructure (radio access networks and mobile‑focused hardware/software). [14]
- The company is targeting an annual comparable operating profit of €2.7–3.2 billion by 2028, up from about €2 billion previously – essentially aiming for up to a ~60% profit uplift over a few years. [15]
- Nokia plans to cut group operating expenses from roughly €350 million to €150 million by 2028, reflecting efficiencies from restructuring and portfolio focus. [16]
- A new Nokia Defense incubation unit will focus on secure connectivity and critical‑infrastructure networks for Western governments and allies, building on Finland’s NATO membership and heightened European defence spending. [17]
This strategy leans heavily on three structural bets:
- Explosive AI/Cloud traffic growth that demands ever‑denser optical and IP networks. [18]
- 5G‑Advanced and early 6G deployments requiring more intelligent, software‑defined RAN and core networks. [19]
- A larger role for defence, private networks and mission‑critical connectivity (airports, ports, industrial sites, energy, transport). [20]
5G and private‑network deals: Europe, India, Middle East and offshore
Nokia has been stacking up contract wins and extensions through late 2025, many of which directly support the bullish AI/network‑infrastructure thesis.
Landmark wins in Europe
Recent highlights include:
- Telecom Italia (TIM) – In November 2025, Nokia secured a “landmark” three‑year 5G deal with TIM to expand and modernise its 5G radio network across Italy. The contract significantly increases Nokia’s share of TIM’s radio‑access network and comes at Ericsson’s expense, according to industry reporting. [21]
- Telefónica Germany (O2) – On November 26, Nokia announced a new five‑year RAN contract extension running to 2030, under which it will modernise Telefónica Germany’s radio‑access network and deploy Cloud RAN and AI‑powered management tools to accelerate nationwide 5G roll‑out and improve energy efficiency. [22]
- TNN, Denmark – Nokia signed a four‑year contract extension as the sole supplier of 5G RAN and managed services for TNN, Denmark’s largest shared mobile network. The project leans on Nokia’s AirScale portfolio and MantaRay AI‑driven automation to boost performance and energy efficiency. [23]
Earlier in the autumn, Nokia also announced an eight‑year, multi‑billion‑pound 5G deal with VodafoneThree in the UK, marking Nokia’s return as a key RAN supplier to the combined operator and tying the company into one of Europe’s largest private 5G infrastructure projects. [24]
These wins are important not just for revenue but for market share. After losing a major AT&T 5G contract in the US to Ericsson in 2023, Nokia’s ability to displace Ericsson at TIM and deepen ties with Telefónica and TNN suggests the balance of power in European RAN is shifting back in Nokia’s favour. [25]
India, Middle East and offshore energy
In just the last week alone, Nokia has announced a string of new deals:
- Bharti Airtel (India) – On December 4, Nokia said it is partnering with Airtel to expose the operator’s 5G network capabilities to third‑party developers via Nokia’s Network as Code platform and APIs. This effectively turns Airtel’s 5G network into a programmable platform for enterprise and developer innovation. [26]
- du (UAE) – On December 3, Nokia and du announced an industry‑first autonomous 5G network‑slicing implementation, using automation to create and manage differentiated 5G slices for different services and customers. The trial underscores Nokia’s technical leadership in 5G‑Advanced capabilities that will be crucial for monetising enterprise use‑cases. [27]
- Tampnet (Gulf of Mexico) – On December 2, Nokia revealed that it is working with offshore‑communications specialist Tampnet to deploy 5G technology across 120 offshore base stations, extending coverage to 350–400 oil platforms, FPSOs, wind assets and vessels in the Gulf of Mexico. [28]
Beyond these, Nokia technology has been selected to upgrade communications infrastructure at Taoyuan International Airport in Taiwan, further validating its positioning in mission‑critical private networks for transport hubs. [29]
Industrial and port 5G in the UK and US
Nokia’s private‑network momentum is also visible in:
- A 5G deployment at Thames Freeport in the UK, where Nokia is helping automate port operations and logistics via private wireless. [30]
- A multi‑year deal with AT&T to modernise voice networks and expand 5G automation in the US, sustaining Nokia’s presence with a key Tier‑1 operator despite losing some 5G RAN share previously. [31]
Together, these deals show Nokia is leveraging 5G and AI not only with classic telcos but also with enterprises, ports, airports and offshore energy players — precisely the growth pockets that investors associate with higher margins and stickier contracts.
Credit quality improves: Moody’s moves Nokia’s outlook to “positive”
On December 4, 2025, Moody’s Ratings revised Nokia’s outlook from “stable” to “positive” while affirming its Ba1 family rating and related debt ratings. [32]
Moody’s cited:
- Expectations that underlying profitability will strengthen over 2026–2028, driven primarily by the network‑infrastructure segment, where AI and cloud‑driven demand is strongest. [33]
- Robust growth in optical and IP networking, supported by rising capex from hyperscalers and cloud providers. [34]
- The strategic tailwind from Nvidia’s 2.9% equity investment and AI partnership, which reinforces Nokia’s positioning in AI‑optimised networks. [35]
- Strong liquidity, with around €6.1 billion of cash, big undrawn credit facilities and expectations that the company will maintain a net cash position while generating healthy free cash flow. [36]
Moody’s also highlighted the possibility of an eventual rating upgrade if Nokia executes its AI‑and‑cloud strategy, strengthens its competitive position and keeps leverage under control. Conversely, a deterioration in operating performance or a sustained rise in debt/EBITDA above 2.5× could pressure the rating. [37]
For equity investors, the key takeaway is that credit risk is moving in the right direction, adding another pillar under the bull case.
Infinera acquisition and the optical‑network opportunity
Nokia’s AI and cloud story is intertwined with its acquisition of Infinera, a US optical‑networking specialist whose technology now sits at the heart of many data‑centre and long‑haul network upgrades.
Regulatory approvals — including from EU competition authorities — cleared the deal earlier in 2025, allowing Nokia to fully integrate Infinera into its Optical Networks unit. [38]
Reuters and Nokia have both emphasised that:
- Infinera has boosted Nokia’s optical‑network sales, contributing to the strong Q3 optical‑growth numbers. [39]
- The combined portfolio gives Nokia a larger share of the global optical‑transport market, strengthening its hand with cloud providers and large enterprises. [40]
As AI workloads demand ever‑faster connections between data centres, this optical backbone is a major strategic asset.
Analyst ratings and price targets: cautiously bullish, but upside looks limited near term
Wall Street view on the ADR (NOK)
MarketBeat’s latest aggregation of 12 Wall Street analyst ratings for Nokia’s ADR shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus:
- 8 Buy, 3 Hold and 1 Sell ratings.
- A 12‑month average price target of $6.10, with a high of $8.00 and a low of $3.60, implying only about 0.6% upside from the recent $6.06–6.07 trading range. [41]
That muted implied upside reflects how far and fast the stock has already run since Nvidia’s investment and the Q3 earnings beat.
Notably, J.P. Morgan recently raised its price target from $7.10 to $8.00 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing Nokia’s AI‑driven growth prospects and its strengthened position in network infrastructure. [42]
StockAnalysis, which tracks analyst estimates in euros, shows consensus forecasts for Nokia’s revenue and earnings (EUR basis) as follows: [43]
- Revenue 2025: about €20.4 billion, up ~6.2% vs. 2024.
- Revenue 2026: roughly €21.2 billion, implying ~3.7% growth.
- EPS 2025: rising from €0.23 (2024) to €0.27.
- EPS 2026: expected to climb to €0.35, a ~28% jump vs. 2025.
Those numbers assume Nokia can maintain momentum in network infrastructure while stabilising mobile‑network margins.
European broker views on the Helsinki listing (NOKIA.HE)
For the Helsinki‑listed shares, platforms such as MarketScreener and Investing.com indicate:
- A consensus rating around “Outperform”/“Buy”, based on roughly 20–21 analysts.
- An average 12‑month price target only a few percent above the current share price (around €5.3–5.4 vs. a market price close to €5.2–5.3), implying low single‑digit upside after the recent rally. [44]
In short, most human analysts are positive but not euphoric: they see Nokia as a solid AI‑infrastructure and 5G play, but think a lot of good news is already baked into the price.
Quant and technical models: mixed signals
CoinCodex: modest short‑term gains, possible longer‑term decline
Algorithmic platform CoinCodex currently projects that Nokia’s ADR:
- Could rise to about $6.20 over the next week and $6.31 over the next month, roughly 3.9% above current levels. [45]
- But its one‑year forecast calls for a drop to roughly $5.09 (about −16% vs. today), and its long‑term (2030) projection is around $4.98, also below current prices. [46]
The site labels sentiment as “Neutral” with high volatility (≈6.8% over 30 days) and notes that only 11 of the last 30 trading days were “green”. [47]
Intellectia: technically a “Strong Buy” near term, but with bearish mid‑term signals
Technical/AI platform Intellectia takes a different tack:
- It describes Nokia as a “Strong Buy candidate” over the next couple of days or weeks, citing a rising trend and some positive momentum indicators. [48]
- At the same time, it flags that short‑term technical signals are mixed, with three bearish vs. one bullish signal, and highlights a relatively high short‑sale ratio of ~22% as of December 5. [49]
- Its longer‑term price‑path scenarios for 2026 show a wide potential trading range (roughly $3.4–$7.1), illustrating just how much uncertainty remains as markets digest Nokia’s AI pivot. [50]
Taken together, quant models do not show a clear consensus:
- Near term: modest upside is common in both CoinCodex and Intellectia scenarios.
- One‑year view: at least one major algorithm (CoinCodex) sees downside risk, while Intellectia’s scenarios oscillate between positive and negative months.
For investors, the main message is that short‑term trading signals are noisy, and quant tools should be treated as supplements, not substitutes, for fundamental analysis.
Valuation debates: slightly undervalued or wildly expensive?
After the Nvidia‑driven surge and subsequent pullback, valuation commentators are deeply split.
“Fairly priced” to slightly undervalued
A recent analysis syndicated via Simply Wall St argues that Nokia’s current share price is close to its fair value, with a widely followed narrative placing fair value around €5.39, just above a recent market price slightly above €5.30. [51]
This camp notes:
- A 41–42% share‑price gain over the past three months and roughly 36% total return over 12 months.
- Strengthening demand from hyperscalers, AI data‑centres and fibre/5G roll‑outs, particularly in Fixed and Optical Networks, as key drivers of future growth. [52]
From that lens, Nokia is not obviously cheap, but not obviously overvalued either — more like a stock that has “caught up” to improved fundamentals.
DCF models warning of a big premium to intrinsic value
By contrast, another view — circulated through platforms such as AInvest and referenced via Yahoo Finance — applies a discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model and arrives at a much lower intrinsic value:
- One DCF framework pegs Nokia’s fair value around €1.99 per share, implying the stock trades at roughly a 166% premium to that estimate after its ~36% 12‑month gain. [53]
Simply Wall St’s valuation commentary similarly notes that its DCF‑based fair value is far below the current market price, even if some narrative‑based fair‑value estimates sit closer to spot. [54]
In other words:
- Narrative / peer‑multiple models tend to put Nokia near fair value or slightly undervalued.
- Strict DCF models see the shares as aggressively priced, assuming more growth and margin expansion than their base‑case scenarios justify.
That split is exactly what you’d expect in a company undergoing a strategic pivot (AI, 6G, defense): small tweaks to long‑term assumptions can swing fair‑value estimates dramatically.
Key fundamental drivers and catalysts to watch
If you strip away the short‑term trading noise, Nokia’s medium‑term investment case now rests on a few big pillars:
1. AI and cloud infrastructure demand
- Q3 numbers showed AI and cloud customers already account for a meaningful slice of group revenue (6% of total sales; 14% of network‑infrastructure sales) and are growing rapidly. [55]
- Partnerships with Nvidia, Supermicro, HPE and hyperscalers tie Nokia’s hardware to AI data‑centre build‑outs and edge‑cloud deployments. [56]
If AI‑driven traffic continues to grow at current rates, Nokia should see ongoing demand for high‑capacity optical transport, IP routing and 800G‑ready core networks.
2. 5G‑Advanced, network APIs and monetisation
- Nokia’s Advanced 5G portfolio aims to improve performance and open new revenue streams through features like network slicing, carrier aggregation and low‑latency enhancements, all underpinned by AI‑driven automation. [57]
- Deals with du (autonomous network slicing) and Bharti Airtel (Network‑as‑Code APIs for developers) are early examples of operators trying to monetise 5G beyond simple connectivity, with Nokia as the technology enabler. [58]
If these experiments scale, Nokia could benefit not only from capex but also from software, platforms and services revenue with higher margins.
3. Private networks and mission‑critical connectivity
- Contracts with Tampnet (offshore oil & gas and offshore wind), ports such as Thames Freeport, and airports like Taoyuan underscore Nokia’s strength in industrial private 5G and mission‑critical IP/optical networks. [59]
- These projects typically carry multi‑year terms and sticky relationships, and they diversify Nokia away from purely cyclical telco RAN spending.
4. Europe’s strategic autonomy and defence
- Nokia’s new Defense incubation unit and its deepening role in secure networks for European infrastructure and defence align with the EU’s desire for greater technological sovereignty. [60]
- That could translate into preferential positioning in future defence‑communications tenders and critical‑infrastructure projects.
5. Execution against the 2028 profit target
Ultimately, the market will judge Nokia on whether it can:
- Hit its new €2.7–3.2 billion comparable operating‑profit target by 2028. [61]
- Deliver the promised operating‑expense reductions and margin uplift.
- Integrate Infinera smoothly and maintain share gains with customers like TIM, Telefónica Germany, VodafoneThree and TNN. [62]
Main risks for Nokia shareholders
No stock is a one‑way bet, and Nokia faces several meaningful risks:
- Telecom capex cycles remain volatile
Even with AI and cloud demand, telco capex can be lumpy. The industry is just emerging from a period of subdued 5G RAN investment, and another slowdown — or delays in 5G‑Advanced/6G roll‑outs — could hit Nokia’s mobile‑infrastructure segment. [63] - Competitive pressure from Ericsson, Huawei and others
While Nokia has won share at TIM and deepened ties with Telefónica and TNN, competition in RAN and core networks remains intense, with pricing pressure a constant threat. [64] - Execution risk on restructuring and AI pivot
Reshaping the group into two major segments, integrating Infinera, launching a Defence unit and scaling new AI‑centric products is a complex multi‑year program. Any missteps could undermine the 2028 profit target. [65] - Valuation uncertainty
As the DCF debate shows, Nokia’s valuation is very sensitive to assumptions about long‑term margins and growth. If AI and cloud demand slows, or if margin expansion disappoints, high‑end fair‑value estimates could fall sharply. [66] - Technical and sentiment risks
Short‑term models flag high volatility, a notable short‑interest ratio, and a recent pattern of choppy price action. These factors can exacerbate swings around earnings or macro news. [67]
What this could mean for investors in Nokia Oyj stock
As of December 7, 2025, Nokia Oyj stock sits at an interesting crossroads:
- Fundamentals look better than they have in years:
- Q3 2025 showed strong revenue growth and a decisive earnings beat. [68]
- AI and cloud customers are already material, with optical networks surging. [69]
- Nvidia’s $1 billion stake and Nokia’s new strategy point to a clear, AI‑driven roadmap through 2028. [70]
- Moody’s has shifted Nokia to a positive outlook, underlining improved credit quality. [71]
- The share price has already moved a long way:
- Valuation and quant models are split:
- Some narratives frame the stock as roughly fairly valued or slightly undervalued. [74]
- Other DCF‑based approaches argue it trades at a steep premium to intrinsic value. [75]
- Technical and algorithmic forecasts range from short‑term “Strong Buy” to expectations of double‑digit downside over the next year. [76]
A balanced takeaway
For long‑term, fundamentals‑driven investors, Nokia now looks like:
- A credible AI‑infrastructure and 5G/6G play with strengthening balance sheet and an ambitious but clearly articulated profit target for 2028.
- A company with growing exposure to higher‑value segments: optical networks, private 5G, network APIs and defence‑related connectivity.
- But also a stock where much of the good news is already reflected in the price, and where future returns will depend heavily on execution and the staying power of AI and cloud capex.
For short‑term traders, Nokia offers:
- Plenty of liquidity and volatility,
- A dense calendar of catalysts (contract wins, regulatory milestones, quarterly results, potential rating upgrades),
- And a wide range of sometimes conflicting technical signals.
References
1. www.nokia.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.nokia.com, 11. www.ft.com, 12. www.nokia.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.nokia.com, 20. www.criticalcommunicationsreview.com, 21. www.nokia.com, 22. www.nokia.com, 23. www.nokia.com, 24. www.nokia.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.nokia.com, 27. www.nokia.com, 28. www.nokia.com, 29. www.airport-technology.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. ng.investing.com, 33. ng.investing.com, 34. ng.investing.com, 35. ng.investing.com, 36. ng.investing.com, 37. ng.investing.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.marketbeat.com, 42. stockanalysis.com, 43. stockanalysis.com, 44. www.investing.com, 45. coincodex.com, 46. coincodex.com, 47. coincodex.com, 48. intellectia.ai, 49. intellectia.ai, 50. intellectia.ai, 51. simplywall.st, 52. simplywall.st, 53. www.ainvest.com, 54. simplywall.st, 55. www.reuters.com, 56. finviz.com, 57. www.nokia.com, 58. www.nokia.com, 59. www.criticalcommunicationsreview.com, 60. www.reuters.com, 61. www.reuters.com, 62. www.chartmill.com, 63. www.reuters.com, 64. www.lightreading.com, 65. www.nokia.com, 66. www.ainvest.com, 67. intellectia.ai, 68. www.reuters.com, 69. www.reuters.com, 70. www.ft.com, 71. ng.investing.com, 72. www.investing.com, 73. www.marketbeat.com, 74. simplywall.st, 75. www.ainvest.com, 76. intellectia.ai
