Nokia Stock Soars on 5G Deals Ahead of Earnings – Analysts Eye Bright Outlook

• Nokia hits 52-week highs: Nokia Oyj (NYSE: NOK) surged ~14% in early October, reaching a 52-week high near $5.49 by Oct. 14 ^[1]. It continued climbing to around $5.54 on Oct. 15 and this week touched $5.79 – its highest in a year ^{[2] [3]}. Helsinki-listed shares similarly closed near multi-year highs (~€4.84) amid the rally ^[4].
• Big 5G contracts fuel rally: Nokia announced major telecom deals that boosted investor optimism. On Oct. 14 it extended a 5G network partnership with Vodafone/Vodacom across Europe and Africa ^[5], and secured a £2 billion UK 5G rollout contract (with Ericsson) to upgrade ~7,000 sites after the Vodafone–Three merger ^[6]. It also won a “green” 5G network deal in Japan (Rakuten Mobile) using Nokia’s power-saving optical tech (cutting energy use ~24%) and expanded a core network upgrade with Finland’s Elisa (targeting 20% energy savings) ^[7].
• Earnings on tap (Oct 23): Nokia reports Q3 results tomorrow, with analysts expecting ~€0.06 EPS on €4.6 billion revenue ^[8]. In Q2, Nokia posted $5.34 billion sales (above forecasts) but only $0.05 EPS (slightly missing estimates) ^[9]. The company trimmed its 2025 profit outlook in July (to €1.6–2.1 billion from €1.9–2.4 billion) due to tariffs and a strong dollar ^[10], so investors will watch if guidance improves.
• Strategic shifts (AI and optical): Under new CEO Justin Hotard, Nokia is pivoting toward AI and advanced networking. It completed a $2.3 billion acquisition of U.S. optical firm Infinera earlier this year to bolster its data center and 5G backhaul capabilities ^{[11] [12]}. Nokia is also integrating artificial intelligence into its products – in early October it licensed HPE’s AI-powered RAN controller software to automate 5G/6G networks ^[13], even hiring HPE’s developers to help build out the platform ^[14]. These moves aim to improve Nokia’s high-margin businesses (cloud networking, patents, and cybersecurity) and drive future earnings growth ^[15].
• Headwinds & competition: Despite recent wins, Nokia faces challenges. Rival Ericsson reported blowout Q3 results, sending its stock up 13% on Oct. 14 ^[16] and highlighting Ericsson’s gains in the lucrative North American 5G market ^[17]. Meanwhile, China is reportedly curbing Nokia and Ericsson gear in its networks ^[18], limiting growth in a huge market. Global telecom capital spending is flat or declining ^[19], making competition “fierce” as carriers squeeze suppliers. Nokia has exited Russia due to sanctions, and even rumors suggest it might divest non-core assets (like its legacy HERE digital maps unit) to refocus on networks ^[20]. On the positive side, CEO Hotard notes rising defense and government demand (as NATO allies boost spending, targeting up to 5% of GDP on defense) could open new opportunities for secure network systems ^[21].
• Stock performance & financial health: Nokia’s New York shares are up ~21% over the past month and ~12% year-to-date ^[22], outpacing many tech peers. The stock trades around 1.3× sales and 28× earnings – elevated vs. Nokia’s past (its P/E is above the historical median ^[23]) but still below industry averages for telecom tech ^[24]. Balance sheet metrics remain solid (debt-to-equity ~0.2, current ratio ~1.5 ^[25]) and free cash flow is strong, helping fund a dividend near 3%. Nokia’s board even approved issuing 120 million new shares (starting trading Oct. 3) to fulfill employee equity plans ^[26] – a minor dilution offset by a recent share cancellation.
• Analyst sentiment: Wall Street is cautiously optimistic on Nokia. The consensus rating is “Moderate Buy” with a 12-month price target in the mid-$5s (around $5.30–$5.50) ^{[27] [28]}. MarketBeat reports 5 analysts rate NOK a Buy (1 Hold, 1 Sell) ^[29]. BNP Paribas, for example, upgraded Nokia to Outperform with a $5.00 target ^[30]. Street forecasts imply full-year 2025 EPS of ~€0.34 ^[31], suggesting the current stock price already reflects modest earnings growth. Technical signals are mixed: Nokia’s recent run-up pushed its 14-day RSI above 70 (an overbought level) ^[32], so some consolidation is possible, but the overall uptrend remains intact.
• Outlook – “show me” story: Looking ahead, Nokia’s fortunes will hinge on execution. Bulls argue the company’s strong cash position and broad telecom portfolio make it a stable long-term play – Nokia has beat earnings/revenue estimates ~75% of the time in recent years ^[33] and continues to invest in innovation. Its ~3% dividend and steady network services provide “income support” for investors even if growth is slow ^[34]. On the other hand, Nokia’s margin pressures (operating margin under 4% ^[35]) and delayed 5G spending by carriers could temper near-term results. Most analysts see only gradual upside for now, with price targets clustered around the $5–$6 range ^[36]. As one analysis noted, recent contract wins and cost cuts have improved sentiment, “but full-year guidance cuts remind that output may lag until late 2025” ^[37]. In sum, Nokia enters its earnings report riding positive momentum from 5G deals and an AI push, yet it remains a “show me” story – needing to prove that these strategic moves will translate into stronger growth and shareholder returns in 2026 and beyond.

Sources

• Mateusz Kaczmarek, TechStock² – “Nokia Stock Surges on 5G Deals and Bullish Forecasts – What’s Next for NOK Investors?” (15 Oct 2025) ^{[38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44]}
• GuruFocus News – “Nokia (NOK) Set to Release Q3 Earnings Amid Strategic Shifts” (22 Oct 2025) ^{[45] [46] [47] [48] [49]}
• MarketBeat – Equities Analysts Offer Predictions for Nokia Q3 (20 Oct 2025) ^{[50] [51]}
• Simply Wall St – Nokia (HLSE:NOKIA): Valuation After Recent Gains (22 Oct 2025) ^{[52] [53] [54]}
• Nasdaq/RTT News – “Nokia Board Approves Directed Share Issuance…” (2 Oct 2025) ^[55]
• Reuters – Nokia to acquire Infinera, EU approval granted (Feb–Mar 2025) ^{[56] [57]}
• TS2.tech News Roundup (Oct 2025) – industry rumors and context ^[58]
• TelecomTV – Nokia’s energy-efficient 5G projects (Oct 2025) ^[59]

References

1. ts2.tech, 2. ts2.tech, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. simplywall.st, 5. ts2.tech, 6. ts2.tech, 7. ts2.tech, 8. www.gurufocus.com, 9. ts2.tech, 10. ts2.tech, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.submarinenetworks.com, 13. ts2.tech, 14. ts2.tech, 15. simplywall.st, 16. ts2.tech, 17. ts2.tech, 18. ts2.tech, 19. ts2.tech, 20. ts2.tech, 21. ts2.tech, 22. simplywall.st, 23. www.gurufocus.com, 24. simplywall.st, 25. www.gurufocus.com, 26. ts2.tech, 27. ts2.tech, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. ts2.tech, 31. ts2.tech, 32. www.gurufocus.com, 33. www.gurufocus.com, 34. ts2.tech, 35. www.gurufocus.com, 36. ts2.tech, 37. ts2.tech, 38. ts2.tech, 39. ts2.tech, 40. ts2.tech, 41. ts2.tech, 42. ts2.tech, 43. ts2.tech, 44. ts2.tech, 45. www.gurufocus.com, 46. www.gurufocus.com, 47. www.gurufocus.com, 48. www.gurufocus.com, 49. www.gurufocus.com, 50. www.marketbeat.com, 51. www.marketbeat.com, 52. simplywall.st, 53. simplywall.st, 54. simplywall.st, 55. ts2.tech, 56. www.reuters.com, 57. www.submarinenetworks.com, 58. ts2.tech, 59. ts2.tech