Sydney, 4 December 2025 – Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) is heading into 2026 as one of the standout winners of this year’s gold boom. As of today, the Northern Star Resources share price is about A$26.48, after a modest pullback, with the stock still sitting near its 52‑week highs and up roughly 70–75% over the past year, far ahead of the broader S&P/ASX 200 index. [1]
That outperformance sits on top of a gold market that has gone almost parabolic. Spot gold is trading around US$4,200/oz and has risen nearly 60% in 2025, after hitting record highs above US$4,300–4,380/oz in October. [2]
Against that backdrop, investors are asking a familiar question: after such a strong run, what’s next for Northern Star Resources shares?
Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) share price snapshot
According to live ASX data, Northern Star Resources Ltd stock is trading around A$26.48 today. [3]
Key numbers as of 4 December 2025:
- Share price: ~A$26.5
- 52‑week range: ~A$15.06 – A$27.99 [4]
- Market capitalisation: about A$25.4 billion, placing Northern Star firmly in the S&P/ASX 200’s large‑cap bracket. [5]
- 1‑year performance: roughly +71–75%, versus a mid‑single‑digit gain for the ASX 200. [6]
On the income side, Northern Star paid two dividends in 2025 – A$0.25 in March and A$0.30 in September – for a total A$0.55 per share, broadly in line with a ~2% trailing yield at current prices. [7]
In short: the market already prices Northern Star as a blue‑chip, high‑beta way to play the gold bull market.
Latest Northern Star Resources news – 4 December 2025
1. Massive renewable energy hub for the Kalgoorlie “Super Pit”
The most eye‑catching news on 4 December is not about drilling, but about electrons.
Northern Star has unveiled plans for the Kalgoorlie Regional Renewable Energy Project, a huge hybrid power system designed to supply around 70% of the electricity demand for its Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM) operations, including the famous “Super Pit”. [8]
Key elements of the project:
- 256 MW of wind, 138 MW of solar and a 140 MW / 300 MWh battery in Western Australia’s Goldfields. [9]
- Australian solar firm 5B has secured its largest order yet to supply the 138 MW of prefabricated “Maverick” solar units. [10]
- Independent power producer Zenith Energy will build, own and operate the hybrid plant under a 25‑year power purchase agreement (PPA), and also provide 120 MW of thermal generation plus a new 132kV transmission network. [11]
Northern Star expects the project to deliver cost‑effective power and materially lower emissions; Zenith has indicated it should help cut the miner’s Scope 1 and 2 emissions and improve reliability on a historically fragile regional grid. [12]
For investors, this is not just ESG window dressing. Power is one of the biggest line items in a gold miner’s cost base. A long‑dated, mostly renewable supply should help stabilise all‑in sustaining costs (AISC) over time and could improve Northern Star’s appeal to ESG‑screened capital.
2. Central Tanami: portfolio reshaping continues
On 3 December, MGX Resources announced that Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) has approved its A$50 million acquisition of a 50% stake in the Central Tanami gold project joint venture, a deal struck with Northern Star Resources. [13]
Once completed:
- MGX will own 50% of the Central Tanami JV,
- The other 50% remains with Tanami Gold, which waived its right of first refusal,
- Final completion now only depends on an extension to certain infrastructure arrangements, with the parties targeting closure ahead of 31 March 2026. [14]
For Northern Star, this is classic portfolio management: crystallising value and sharing future development risk and capex with another producer, while keeping exposure to a long‑life asset.
3. Takeover speculation: Agnico Eagle circling?
Northern Star’s scale and growth pipeline are starting to attract predator rumours.
A recent Dataroom column in The Australian reported that Canada’s gold major Agnico Eagle, now the world’s second‑largest gold producer, is watching Northern Star closely and that the ASX miner has “emerged as a potential A$36 billion takeover target.” [15]
The article suggests:
- Agnico Eagle is particularly interested in Northern Star’s Hemi Development Project, acquired via the De Grey takeover. [16]
- Any formal move would likely depend on Agnico’s conviction that it can add value during the construction and ramp‑up phase, given Northern Star’s own heavy capital commitments at Hemi and the KCGM Super Pit mill expansion. [17]
No bid exists today. But the option value of a future takeover is the sort of thing markets quietly bake into high‑quality, multi‑asset producers during bull cycles.
4. Gold Fields’ A$1.1bn stake sale overhang
Another piece of corporate intrigue: Gold Fields’ pending sale of a large Northern Star stake.
As part of its A$3.7 billion takeover of Gold Road Resources, South African miner Gold Fields will acquire around 49.3 million Northern Star shares, worth about A$1.1 billion at a reference price of A$22.41. Market sources quoted in The Australian expect Gold Fields to sell this parcel after the deal, with JPMorgan reportedly advising. [18]
On one hand, that’s a significant potential supply overhang. On the other, it should broaden the shareholder base and may give institutions an opportunity to accumulate stock in size if gold sentiment stays strong.
5. The macro backdrop: a once‑in‑a‑generation gold rally
The environment Northern Star is operating in is extraordinary.
- Gold has jumped roughly 59% in 2025, with spot prices touching record levels above US$4,300/oz in October before consolidating around US$4,200/oz into December. [19]
- Analysts point to central‑bank buying, geopolitical risk, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts as key drivers. [20]
When the underlying commodity price goes vertical like this, marginal producers survive and low‑cost, large‑scale producers like Northern Star start to mint cash.
De Grey Mining acquisition and the Hemi growth engine
Northern Star’s 2025 transformation hinges on a single, huge corporate move: the takeover of De Grey Mining and its Hemi gold project.
- In December 2024, Northern Star agreed to acquire De Grey in an all‑share deal valuing De Grey at about A$5 billion. [21]
- De Grey shareholders approved the scheme in April 2025; the Federal Court signed off; and on 5 May 2025 the scheme became effective and all De Grey shares were transferred to Northern Star. Eligible shareholders received 0.119 new NST shares per De Grey share. [22]
- Northern Star now fully controls the Hemi Development Project in the Pilbara, described by the company as a low‑cost, long‑life, large‑scale gold development. [23]
The acquisition effectively drops a world‑class new gold district into Northern Star’s portfolio. Combined with KCGM and Pogo (in Alaska), it pushes the group toward a target of ~2 million ounces of annual production with more than 10 years of reserve‑backed life. [24]
Northern Star’s investor presentation in August 2025 lays out the roadmap:
- The KCGM Mill Expansion is designed to lift Fimiston processing capacity from 13Mtpa to 27Mtpa by FY29, supporting production of 850–900koz per year at KCGM. [25]
- Hemi sits alongside KCGM and Pogo as one of three growth pillars, contributing to a planned structural shift into the first half of the global gold cost curve. [26]
The short version: Hemi + KCGM expansion give Northern Star a credible path to higher scale and lower costs at the same time – the holy grail for a gold miner.
Production, costs and cash: how healthy is Northern Star?
FY25 results: earnings jump, balance sheet fortified
Northern Star’s FY25 financials show why the market is willing to pay up:
- Gold sold: about 1.63 million ounces at an AISC around A$2,163/oz, within guidance. [27]
- Underlying earnings per share (EPS): climbed from 26c in FY23 to 60c in FY24 and 119c in FY25. [28]
- Underlying free cash flow per share: rose from 31c to 40c to 45c over FY23–FY25. [29]
- Net cash: roughly A$1.0 billion at 30 June 2025, with cash and bullion of A$1.9 billion. [30]
- Total liquidity: about A$3.4 billion, including undrawn revolving credit facilities. [31]
- Capital returns: a A$300 million share buyback completed at an average price of A$11.04 per share, plus FY25 dividends totalling A$0.55 per share, fully franked, contributing to A$2.8 billion in cumulative capital management since FY2012. [32]
This combination – net cash, big liquidity, rising per‑share cash flows and ongoing dividends – is exactly what large institutions like to see in a cyclical resource name.
Q1 FY26 (September quarter 2025): higher costs, guidance intact
Northern Star’s September 2025 quarterly update (Q1 FY26) shows both the benefit and the cost of its growth push:
- Group gold sold:381,055 oz.
- Group AISC:A$2,522/oz, reflecting higher input costs and ongoing investment. [33]
By region:
- Kalgoorlie: 202,812 oz at AISC A$2,474/oz.
- Yandal: 113,422 oz at AISC A$2,778/oz.
- Pogo (Alaska): 64,821 oz at AISC US$1,453/oz. [34]
Despite the elevated quarter‑on‑quarter costs, management reaffirmed FY26 guidance of:
- 1.7–1.85 Moz of gold sold
- Group AISC of A$2,300–A$2,700/oz [35]
The company flagged some operational disruptions in the December quarter but still sees itself on track for full‑year targets. Net cash at the end of the quarter was around A$616 million, with cash and bullion near A$1.51 billion, even after heavy capital expenditure. [36]
The takeaway: Northern Star is deliberately spending hard today to lock in a larger, lower‑cost production base from FY27 onwards.
Analyst ratings and Northern Star Resources stock forecast for 2026
Consensus broker view: modest upside from here
Across major data providers, analyst opinion on NST in late 2025 is broadly constructive but no longer screamingly cheap.
- Investing.com / MarketScreener:
- 16 analysts,
- Average 12‑month target price: ~A$27.39–27.41,
- Range:A$13.70 (low) to A$35–35.15 (high),
- Consensus rating: “Buy” / “Outperform”, with around 12 buys, 2 holds, 2 sells. [37]
At today’s share price around A$26.5, that implies low‑single‑digit upside to the average target, but substantial upside to the most bullish valuations.
- TipRanks:
- 13 analysts,
- Average target:A$28.04, with a high around A$35.34 and a low just under A$20. [38]
Back in July 2025, HelloSafe noted that more than 13 banks and brokers had an average target of A$24.13 when Northern Star traded around A$18.56, implying about 30% upside at that time. [39] Since then, both the share price and the average target have marched higher.
Individual houses vary:
- CLSA recently lifted its target to about A$35.30, keeping a bullish stance. [40]
- JPMorgan cut its rating to “Neutral” in July with a short‑term target of A$17.50, but that was before the latest leg of the rally; the stock now trades far above that level. [41]
In other words, the consensus view is “quality name, fairly valued to slightly cheap,” not “hidden bargain.”
Intrinsic value models: from “slightly cheap” to “big discount”
Valuation models that try to estimate intrinsic value (usually via discounted cash flow, or DCF) paint a more varied picture:
- A Simply Wall St narrative updated on 2 December 2025 puts Northern Star’s fair value at A$27.39 per share, almost exactly in line with the consensus target, and suggests the stock is about 1% undervalued at current levels. The same model projects a potential share price around A$34 by 2028 if forecast revenues and profits materialise. [42]
- An AI‑assisted piece on AInvest cites two separate DCF models with fair values of A$26.84 and A$26.39, and notes that these estimates were 26–31% above the then‑current price of A$19.77 in September. It also highlights a trailing P/E around 18.6x and EV/EBITDA of 8.5x, both slightly below an Australian metals & mining peer group, arguing the stock still trades at a discount to its fundamentals. [43]
- A Yahoo/Simply Wall St article in October 2025 went further, calculating a DCF‑based fair value near A$46 per share, which would imply Northern Star is deeply undervalued – but that result relies heavily on long‑run gold price and growth assumptions that may or may not hold. [44]
The range between A$26 and A$46 should itself be a warning: valuation is extremely sensitive to assumptions about gold prices, production scale and costs.
Short‑term technical outlook and algorithmic forecasts
If you like your analysis with more moving averages and fewer cash‑flow models, there’s no shortage of technical takes on NST.
The site StockInvest currently classifies Northern Star as a “Buy candidate” based on its trend and moving averages:
- As of 3 December 2025, NST closed at A$27.09.
- The stock has risen in 7 of the last 10 sessions and is trading in the upper part of a strong rising short‑term trend.
- Their model projects a potential 29.7% rise over the next three months, with a 90% probability of the price landing between roughly A$33.4 and A$35.5, and identifies major volume support around A$23.56. [45]
They also confirm the recent dividend history – A$0.25 in March and A$0.30 in September – supporting the trailing yield calculations. [46]
Other algorithmic services focus further out:
- WalletInvestor projects a long‑term uptrend for Northern Star, with the share potentially reaching the mid‑A$40s by 2030. [47]
- AI Pickup’s forecast curve is more conservative, with modelled averages around A$25–26 for late 2025 and the low‑A$20s for 2026, reflecting the possibility of mean reversion after a big run. [48]
- A forecast for NST’s OTC listing (NESRF) on CoindataFlow imagines roughly 30% upside by 2027, again based on historical price patterns. [49]
All of these are statistical extrapolations, not fundamental research. They’re best treated as “what‑if” scenarios, not roadmaps.
Is Northern Star Resources stock a buy? Key opportunities and risks
This isn’t personalised investment advice, but it’s useful to map out the main bull and bear arguments implied by current research and data.
Bull case: why investors like Northern Star
Several themes run through bullish analyst reports and institutional commentary:
- Leverage to a major gold bull market
Gold has surged nearly 60% this year and is on track for its strongest annual gain since the late 1970s, with spot prices hovering near US$4,000–4,300/oz. [50] Northern Star gives direct, large‑scale exposure to that environment. - Scale, diversification and high‑quality assets
Northern Star is now Australia’s largest ASX‑listed gold producer, with three main production centres – Kalgoorlie and Yandal in Western Australia, and Pogo in Alaska – plus the Hemi development in the Pilbara. [51] - Clear growth pipeline
The combination of KCGM mill expansion and Hemi is expected to push production toward ~2Moz a year, with Northern Star targeting a low‑cost position in the first half of the global gold cost curve. [52] - Strong balance sheet and capital returns
With A$1.0 billion of net cash, around A$3.4 billion in total liquidity, and A$2.8 billion returned to shareholders since 2012 via dividends and buybacks, Northern Star looks financially robust even after big acquisitions. [53] - ESG and cost tailwinds from renewables
The new Kalgoorlie renewable energy hub is expected to cover around 70% of KCGM’s power needs, potentially lowering long‑term operating costs and emissions intensity. [54] - M&A optionality
Ongoing speculation about Agnico Eagle and other majors looking at Northern Star highlights the possibility of a future control premium, even if no formal approach has been made. [55]
Bear case: what could go wrong
There are also serious risks and constraints:
- Huge capital requirements
Hemi and the KCGM expansion are multi‑billion‑dollar projects. Northern Star itself recognises a need to maintain at least A$1–1.5 billion in liquidity, and investors must assume that a big chunk of free cash flow will be reinvested in the next few years rather than paid out. [56] - Cost inflation and AISC pressure
Q1 FY26 AISC of A$2,522/oz is at the higher end of the company’s full‑year guidance range and reflects real cost pressure in labour, energy and consumables. If gold prices retrace while AISC stays high, margins could compress quickly. [57] - Geographic concentration
Northern Star’s core production and its biggest growth projects are all in Western Australia plus a single operation in Alaska. These are stable jurisdictions, but they still expose the company to regional regulatory, environmental and infrastructure risks, including the reliability of local power grids – hence the big renewable project. [58] - Share overhang and changing shareholder base
The expected A$1.1 billion sell‑down by Gold Fields could weigh on the share price when executed, even if it ultimately improves liquidity. [59] - Gold price downside
A big part of Northern Star’s 2025 earnings power comes from an unusually high gold price. If macro conditions normalise – for example, if rate‑cut expectations fade or geopolitical tensions ease – gold could correct sharply. A business that looks very cheap at US$4,200/oz can look merely reasonable at US$3,000/oz. [60] - Valuation no longer distressed
With the stock already up 70–75% in a year and trading just below most broker target prices, the easy re‑rating phase may be behind it, leaving returns more dependent on execution and gold prices than on a simple “discount to fair value” closing. [61]
Northern Star Resources outlook: what to watch in 2026
Heading into 2026, investors in Northern Star will be watching several key catalysts:
- Quarterly and half‑year FY26 updates
- Delivery against 1.7–1.85 Moz production and A$2,300–A$2,700/oz AISC guidance. [62]
- Evidence that cost inflation is stabilising or easing as new projects ramp and the renewable power strategy gathers pace.
- Hemi and KCGM project milestones
- Kalgoorlie renewable project approvals and construction
- Regulatory approvals, final investment decisions and early construction updates for the Kalgoorlie Regional Renewable Energy Project in partnership with Zenith and 5B. [65]
- Execution of Central Tanami and potential asset sales
- Completion of the Central Tanami transaction with MGX, and whether Northern Star makes further portfolio tweaks. [66]
- Major shareholder moves and M&A noise
- The gold price and the Fed
- The path of US interest rates and the US dollar, which will heavily influence whether gold continues to hover near records or finally takes a breather. [69]
Bottom line
As of 4 December 2025, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) is no longer a contrarian pick – it’s a core holding for many investors who want leveraged exposure to a roaring gold market.
- The business quality (scale, balance sheet, pipeline) is high.
- The macro tailwind (record gold) is powerful but inherently cyclical.
- Analysts mostly see modest further upside, with average 12‑month targets clustered around A$27–28 and a handful of more aggressive fair‑value estimates pointing substantially higher. [70]
References
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