Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST): Share Price, Exploration Update and Stock Forecast on 9 December 2025

Updated 9 December 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) is trading just below record highs as investors digest a A$225 million FY26 exploration program, a fresh Fitch “BBB- / Stable” credit rating and a gold price hovering around US$4,200 an ounce. The stock has rerated sharply through 2025, and the latest news flow gives a good snapshot of where the market thinks it can go next.

Northern Star Resources share price snapshot

As of the close on Monday, 8 December 2025, Northern Star Resources finished at A$25.97, down 1.37% on the day after trading between A$25.73 and A$26.32. ^[1] Intraday quotes on 9 December show the stock changing hands around the mid‑A$25s, leaving it close to its 52‑week high of A$27.99 and well above its 52‑week low of A$15.06. ^[2]

The share price performance over the past year has been striking:

1‑month change: +6.7%
3‑month change: +28.4%
12‑month change: +57.3% ^[3]

At the 8 December close, Northern Star’s market capitalisation was a little over A$37 billion, based on StockInvest’s estimate of A$37.1 billion, with TipRanks placing it slightly higher at about A$38.8 billion depending on the real‑time price used. ^[4]

Put simply: NST is no longer a “mid‑cap growth” story. It is trading with the valuation and expectations of a global‑scale gold major.

FY26 exploration update: A$225 million for organic growth

The key company news driving the latest attention landed on 5 December 2025, when Northern Star released a detailed exploration update to the ASX and reiterated a FY26 exploration spend of A$225 million. ^[5]

The message from that update and subsequent commentary is consistent:

Northern Star is leaning into organic growth rather than big-ticket M&A.
Most of the FY26 exploration budget is aimed at near‑mine drilling around existing mills at Kalgoorlie, Yandal and Pogo, plus work around the newly acquired Hemi project in the Pilbara. ^[6]

Coverage from Proactive Investors, Kalkine Media, Australian Mining and others has highlighted that drilling is delivering high‑grade extensions across all major hubs, reinforcing the company’s strategy of extending mine life and lifting grades around existing infrastructure. ^[7]

From the company’s own exploration report and third‑party summaries, several themes stand out:

Kalgoorlie (KCGM, Carosue Dam, Kalgoorlie Operations)
Drilling has intersected multiple high‑grade zones in areas such as Golden Goose, Ballarat–Last Chance and the Hercules system, including double‑digit gram‑per‑tonne gold over meaningful widths. These results support both the long‑term feed for the expanded Fimiston mill and options for new underground or open‑pit mining fronts. ^[8]
Yandal (Jundee, Thunderbox, Bronzewing)
At Jundee, very high‑grade narrow veins – with intercepts exceeding 150 g/t gold in places – are being traced at depth and along strike, while drilling at Thunderbox’s Wonder West area is returning thick, high‑grade intersections that look capable of underpinning future underground expansions. ^[9]
Pogo (Alaska)
Exploration around the Central Veins and Goodpaster systems continues to extend mineralisation, complementing the mine‑development work already underway and supporting the case for a long‑life, higher‑throughput operation in Alaska. ^[10]
Hemi (Pilbara)
External analysis from Discovery Alert and others notes that drilling along the Diucon–Crow corridor and at nearby Mt Berghaus is confirming continuity between deposits and discovering additional high‑grade zones, reinforcing the view that Hemi is likely to become Northern Star’s fourth production centre later this decade. ^[11]

One metric that has drawn particular attention is exploration efficiency. Discovery Alert estimates that Northern Star has been adding ounces at an industry‑leading cost of about A$19 per ounce, compared with typical large‑cap producer ranges of A$25–50 per ounce. ^[12] That combination — high‑grade discoveries near existing infrastructure and low discovery costs — is a key part of the bullish long‑term thesis on NST.

The FY26 program’s high‑level allocation also underscores the focus on low‑risk, high‑return drilling: most spending is earmarked for in‑mine growth and resource definition, with a smaller but meaningful slice devoted to regional exploration around existing hubs rather than frontier, greenfields projects. ^[13]

Hemi integration and future production profile

The exploration update confirms that Hemi’s Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves will be incorporated into Northern Star’s group statement in May 2026, when the company releases its annual Resources and Reserves update for the 12 months to 31 March 2026. ^[14]

In parallel, Northern Star is progressing a full technical review and permitting work for Hemi, with the goal of making a final investment decision around FY27, subject to regulatory approvals and engagement with Traditional Owners. ^[15]

Fitch Ratings, in its latest rating action on 4 December, explicitly ties Northern Star’s future production profile to two major growth projects:

the KCGM mill expansion, which should lift milling capacity from 13 million tonnes per annum to 23 Mtpa in FY27 and ultimately to 27 Mtpa by FY29, and
the development of Hemi, which Fitch notes has around 6 million ounces of reserves. ^[16]

Fitch estimates that, once these projects are fully ramped, Northern Star’s gold output could rise from about 1.6 million ounces in FY25 to around 2.0 million ounces in FY28–FY30, with potential to reach roughly 2.5 million ounces per year if Hemi performs to expectations. ^[17]

That trajectory would cement NST’s position among the world’s largest listed gold producers.

Credit profile: Fitch affirms ‘BBB‑’ with Stable Outlook

On 4 December 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Northern Star’s Long‑Term Foreign‑Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘BBB‑’ with a Stable Outlook, and likewise affirmed the rating on the company’s US‑dollar senior unsecured notes at ‘BBB‑’. ^[18]

Key points from Fitch’s analysis include:

The rating is underpinned by Northern Star’s scale and asset quality: a diversified portfolio of mines in Tier‑1 mining jurisdictions (Australia and the US) and ore reserves of 22.3 million ounces, which support an estimated average mine life of about 14 years at FY25 production rates. ^[19]
Fitch expects ongoing investment in KCGM and Hemi to improve the cost position, with all‑in sustaining costs (AISC) targeted for the first half of the global cost curve as the expanded Kalgoorlie mill processes large stockpiles with no associated mining cost. ^[20]
Growth capital expenditure is set to remain elevated between FY26 and FY28. Even so, Fitch projects EBITDA leverage peaking at around 1.1x in FY28, well below the 3.3x level that might trigger negative rating action. ^[21]
As of 30 September 2025, Northern Star held A$1.5 billion of cash and bullion and A$1.5 billion of undrawn committed bank facilities, alongside US$600 million of senior notes due 2033, leaving the balance sheet in a net cash or low‑leverage position. ^[22]

In practice, Fitch’s decision confirms that markets view Northern Star as a solid investment‑grade credit even as it embarks on one of the gold sector’s more ambitious organic growth programs.

FY25 results and the first quarter of FY26

Northern Star’s operational momentum helps explain why the equity market has been willing to re‑rate the stock.

A summary of FY25 performance, as collated from company disclosures, shows: ^[23]

Revenue: about A$6.4 billion, up ~30% year‑on‑year.
Gold sales: 1.63 million ounces, slightly ahead of FY24.
Average realised gold price: ~A$3,922/oz.
AISC: roughly A$2,163/oz, leaving healthy margins at prevailing gold prices.
Underlying NPAT: around A$1.415 billion, up more than 100% on FY24.
Underlying free cash flow: about A$536 million (A$328/oz).
Net cash position: approximately A$1.01 billion at year‑end.
Dividends: total FY25 dividend of A$0.55 per share (A$0.25 interim and A$0.30 final), up 64% on FY24.

The September 2025 quarter (Q1 FY26) maintained that momentum:

Group gold sales of 381,000 ounces at an AISC of about A$2,522/oz, consistent with full‑year guidance of 1.7–1.85 Moz at AISC of A$2,300–2,700/oz. ^[24]
A$54 million spent on exploration in the quarter – about a quarter of the FY26 guidance – underscoring the importance of drilling to the company’s long‑term strategy. ^[25]
Cash and bullion of A$1.511 billion at 30 September, with corporate bank facilities of A$1.5 billion undrawn and the US$600 million bond as the main long‑term debt. ^[26]
Hedging commitments of 1.275 million ounces at an average A$3,309/oz remaining in place, with the hedge book being gradually wound down and no new hedges added in the last four quarters. ^[27]

The hedge book is important context: with spot gold now well above US$4,000/oz (and translating into even higher Australian‑dollar prices), hedged ounces represent a material opportunity cost, but they also underpin cash flow during a high‑capex phase.

Analyst ratings, valuation and stock forecasts

Broker and platform targets

Several research and data platforms have updated their views on Northern Star in recent days:

TipRanks reports that the most recent analyst rating on NST is a “Buy” with a A$30.00 price target, implying mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from current levels. The platform also shows a technical sentiment of “Buy” and a market capitalisation of about A$38.76 billion. ^[28]
Simply Wall St calculates a consensus analyst price target of A$27.39, around 5.2% above the latest A$25.97 share price, and models revenue growth of roughly 18.7% per annum over the medium term. ^[29] Their data also highlight how far the stock has come: a 57% gain over the past year, 28% over three months and more than 140% over three years. ^[30]

Valuation narratives on Simply Wall St vary: some models suggest NST is still trading below intrinsic value based on cash‑flow forecasts, while others argue that after the strong rerating, parts of the market may now be paying a premium for quality and growth. ^[31]

Short‑term technical view

On the technical side, StockInvest.us recently upgraded Northern Star from “Hold” to “Buy candidate”. As of its 8 December update, the service notes: ^[32]

The stock fell 1.37% on 8 December (A$26.33 to A$25.97) but has risen in six of the last ten trading days and is up 0.74% over the past two weeks.
NST sits in the middle of a strong short‑term rising trend, and based on that trend the model expects the share price to rise about 25% over the next three months, with a 90% probability of finishing between roughly A$31.95 and A$34.68.
Near‑term signals are mixed: a recent pivot‑top and negative MACD signal point to possible short‑term weakness, even as the long‑term moving average still supports a bullish view.

StockInvest also identifies support from accumulated volume around A$23.56 and A$22.74 and flags resistance in the A$26.05–26.70 area, with average daily volatility of about 2.7%. ^[33]

These quantitative forecasts are not guarantees — they simply formalise what many human traders already see on the chart: a stock in a strong uptrend, but one that has run hard and may be due for bouts of consolidation.

Dividend profile and income appeal

Northern Star has quietly become a reliable dividend payer alongside its growth ambitions.

Dividend data collated by StockInvest and Simply Wall St show: ^[34]

Interim FY25 dividend: A$0.25 per share (paid March 2025).
Final FY25 dividend: A$0.30 per share (paid September 2025).
Total FY25 dividends: A$0.55 per share, up from A$0.335 in FY24.

With the share price around A$26, those payouts translate to a trailing cash dividend yield in the 2–3% range. TradingView data put the 2025 dividend yield at about 2.96%, with a payout ratio of roughly 49% of earnings, a level generally consistent with the company’s stated capital allocation framework. ^[35]

For income‑focused investors, Northern Star therefore offers a combination of:

moderate but growing cash returns; and
significant exposure to gold prices and operational growth.

Macro backdrop: gold near record highs

All of this sits against one of the strongest gold price backdrops on record.

Live data from bullion dealers show spot gold at about US$4,205 per ounce as of the evening of 8 December 2025 in New York, close to its all‑time highs and up modestly on the day. ^[36] Australian‑dollar gold prices are even higher once currency effects are included, which helps explain Northern Star’s robust margins and cash generation.

Market commentary links the metal’s strength to several factors:

expectations that the US Federal Reserve is moving into an easing cycle, with at least one December rate cut considered plausible; TechStock²+1
persistent geopolitical uncertainty and demand for safe‑haven assets; and
continued central‑bank gold buying, particularly from emerging‑market central banks seeking to diversify reserves. ^[37]

Higher gold prices are obviously positive for Northern Star’s realised price and cash flow. The counterpoint is that sector valuations across gold miners have risen, and the company’s hedge book still commits a portion of its production to lower fixed prices (around A$3,309/oz on average), muting some of the upside for the next few years. ^[38]

Ownership changes and institutional flows

One of the more notable ownership stories in 2025 came in September, when South African gold major Gold Fields kicked off a A$1.1 billion sale of its stake in Northern Star. The shares were placed at a floor price of A$21.85, around a 2.7% discount to the pre‑deal close, and stemmed from Gold Fields’ earlier takeover of Gold Road Resources. ^[39]

MarketIndex data also show that other large global investors – including JPMorgan, BlackRock, State Street and VanEck – have trimmed substantial positions in Northern Star over 2025, in some cases exiting entirely. ^[40]

While these sales have at times created short‑term supply overhangs, they also:

increase free float and liquidity, and
underline the degree to which NST has become a core holding in global gold and Australian equity portfolios.

The fact that the share price has continued to push higher despite that selling suggests that new buyers have been willing to absorb the stock, consistent with the bullish analyst and technical views.

Key risks to the Northern Star investment case

Even for a company with investment‑grade credit and a strong operational track record, there are meaningful risks investors are watching:

Execution risk on mega‑projects
The KCGM mill expansion and Hemi development, taken together, represent multi‑billion‑dollar commitments. Fitch explicitly notes that capex is likely to remain high through FY26–FY28, and any cost over‑runs, delays or geological surprises could erode returns and test investor patience. ^[41]
Cost inflation and AISC volatility
The September quarter saw group AISC around A$2,522/oz – comfortably below realised prices but still subject to labour, energy and contractor inflation in Western Australia and Alaska. ^[42]
Hedge book and opportunity cost
With 1.275 Moz hedged at A$3,309/oz and spot gold near or above A$4,200/oz equivalent, the company is giving up some upside on that portion of future production, even though the hedge book is being wound down over time. ^[43]
Commodity‑price risk
The current gold environment is exceptionally favourable. A change in Fed policy expectations, a sharp fall in inflation or a reversal of safe‑haven flows could pull the metal – and NST’s earnings – lower. ^[44]

None of these risks are unusual for a large gold miner, but they are central to how investors will judge whether Northern Star’s current premium is justified.

What to watch next for Northern Star Resources stock

Looking ahead from 9 December 2025, several catalysts stand out:

Next earnings release: StockInvest flags 10 February 2026 as the next expected earnings date, when the market will get an updated read on FY26 guidance, project spend and margins. ^[45]
Further exploration updates: With A$225 million earmarked for FY26, more assay results are almost certain; the market will focus on how much high‑grade material is added near existing mills. ^[46]
Hemi project de‑risking: Progress on permitting, feasibility work and integration into the May 2026 Resource and Reserve statement will shape views on Northern Star’s long‑term production and cost profile. ^[47]
Macro data and the Fed: Any surprises from the Federal Reserve’s December and early‑2026 meetings – on rate cuts, inflation or growth – will filter quickly into the gold price and therefore into sentiment on NST. TechStock²+1

Bottom line

As of 9 December 2025, Northern Star Resources is:

trading near record highs after a 57% one‑year share price gain;
backed by a BBB‑ / Stable investment‑grade rating from Fitch;
committing A$225 million to FY26 exploration, with strong early results across all major hubs; and
leveraged to a near‑record gold price environment that is being driven by macro forces largely outside its control. ^[48]

Analyst and quantitative models generally see modest further upside from here rather than a deep value opportunity, which is what you would expect for a high‑quality, growth‑oriented gold major that has already rerated strongly.