Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) is ending 2025 looking very much like the flagship of Australia’s gold boom.
On 11 December 2025, Northern Star shares are trading around A$26.6–27.1 on the ASX, after closing at A$26.97 yesterday – a 5.06% gain, making it one of the top performers on the S&P/ASX 200. The Economic Times+2Investing.com+2 Year‑to‑date, the stock is up roughly 80%, with a one‑year return of about 64%, reflecting surging gold prices and a series of company‑specific catalysts. Yahoo Finance
At the same time, the miner has reaffirmed a A$225 million exploration budget for FY26, locked in long‑dated renewable power deals for its Kalgoorlie operations, and is backed by a fresh ‘BBB‑’ investment‑grade rating with Stable outlook from Fitch. Fitch Ratings+3NSR Limited+3Capital Brief+3
Below is a detailed look at the latest news, financials, forecasts and risks around Northern Star Resources as of 11 December 2025.
Share price snapshot and recent performance
- Last close (10 Dec 2025): A$26.97, up 5.06% on the day. The Economic Times+1
- Intraday (11 Dec 2025): Trading around A$26.59–27.11, with a day range of A$26.52 to A$27.31. Investing.com+1
- 52‑week range: A$15.06 to A$27.99, putting the current price near the top of its one‑year band. Investing.com+1
- Market capitalisation: About A$37–38 billion, depending on the live quote source. Investing.com+2TradingView+2
Across major data providers, Northern Star is shown trading on a mid‑20s price/earnings multiple, using trailing EPS of roughly A$1.12 per share, and offering a dividend yield around 2% at current prices. Investing.com+2Market Index+2
The stock’s strong run has mirrored the broader Australian gold sector, which has benefited from record or near‑record Australian‑dollar gold prices in 2025. Courier Mail+1
Fresh December news: exploration, power deals and ESG narrative
A$225m FY26 exploration program reaffirmed
On 5 December 2025, Northern Star released a detailed FY26 exploration update, confirming an unchanged A$225 million exploration budget and highlighting drilling success across all production hubs and the newly acquired Hemi development project. NSR Limited+2NSR Limited+2
Key points from the update and subsequent coverage:
- Budget allocation remains focused on near‑mine growth at the three production centres – Kalgoorlie, Yandal and Pogo – plus the Hemi development. The Australian Mining Review+2NSR Limited+2
- At KCGM (Kalgoorlie), drilling has extended the Fimiston South mineralisation footprint to around 800 metres below the existing resource, supporting long‑term mill feed for the expanded plant from FY27. NSR Limited+1
- A new “Golden Goose” target at Mt Charlotte and thick, high‑grade intersections at the Hercules discovery underline the potential for additional high‑margin underground ore. The Australian Mining Review+1
- At Yandal, drilling around Thunderbox and Jundee is identifying mine‑life extension opportunities close to existing infrastructure. NSR Limited+1
- At Pogo (Alaska), extensional drilling at prospects such as Star, Goodpaster and Central Link is supporting the thesis that Pogo is a “world‑class” system with further growth ahead. NSR Limited+1
Multiple outlets – from Proactive Investors to independent mining blogs – have framed the update as another confirmation that Northern Star’s growth is increasingly organic, rather than purely acquisition‑driven. Proactiveinvestors NA+2Discovery Alert+2
Motley Fool coverage on 4–5 December highlighted that the NST share price outpaced the ASX 200 on the back of the exploration news, underscoring investor enthusiasm for the company’s long‑term production pipeline. The Motley Fool Australia+1
Massive renewable and thermal power build‑out at Kalgoorlie
A second major news theme in early December is power – specifically, how Northern Star plans to power its enlarged Kalgoorlie operations in a lower‑carbon, more reliable way.
Several deals and announcements converge here:
- Eastern Goldfields Power Projects & hybrid renewables hub
- Zenith Energy has signed on to develop Australia’s largest dedicated renewable project for mining, comprising 256 MW of wind, 138 MW of solar and a 138 MW/300 MWh battery system, under the Eastern Goldfields Power Projects. Allens+1
- These assets will supply electricity to Northern Star’s Kalgoorlie operations under long‑term power purchase agreements, including a large‑scale gas‑fired station (~120 MW) in a 50/50 joint venture with Northern Star, plus a high‑voltage transmission network. Allens+2Cyprus Shipping News+2
- Specialist solar press reports describe the total hybrid system as a 394‑MW wind–solar hub with storage tied directly to Northern Star’s mines near Kalgoorlie‑Boulder. PV Magazine Australia+1
- Wärtsilä 120 MW engine power plant with synchronous condenser
- Technology group Wärtsilä will supply ten dual‑fuel Wärtsilä 31DF engines with a combined 120 MW capacity, plus controls and auxiliary equipment, for a new power plant that will expand supply to KCGM, one of Australia’s largest gold mines and fully owned by Northern Star. Cyprus Shipping News+1
- The plant is designed as a flexible thermal backbone for the renewables build‑out, with grid‑balancing capabilities and a synchronous condenser mode that can provide reactive power and inertia even when engines are not running. This should improve voltage and frequency stability as renewable penetration rises. Cyprus Shipping News+1
- Commercial operations are targeted for mid‑2027, subject to approvals, aligning with the start‑up of the expanded KCGM mill. Cyprus Shipping News+1
These announcements dovetail neatly with Northern Star’s wider Scope 1 & 2 emissions reduction targets – a 35% cut by 2030 (vs a 2020 baseline) and a net‑zero ambition by 2050 – and with prior clean‑energy projects at Jundee and Carosue Dam. NSR Limited+1
Investment‑grade rating support
In early December, Fitch Ratings affirmed Northern Star Resources at ‘BBB‑’ with a Stable outlook, also affirming the company’s US‑dollar senior unsecured notes. Fitch cites Northern Star’s status as a “well‑established gold producer” with a diversified, long‑life asset base and strong leverage metrics as key supports for the rating. Fitch Ratings+1
This external validation aligns with the miner’s own report that it ended FY25 with around A$1 billion of net cash and total liquidity approaching A$1.9 billion, even after lifting dividends and completing a sizeable buyback. Kalkine+2MarketScreener+2
FY25: record earnings on record gold prices
Northern Star’s current share price strength is grounded in a record FY25 financial performance (year ended 30 June 2025), released in August.
Across the company’s own filings and analyst summaries:
- Revenue: A$6.41–6.42 billion, up ~30% from FY24 (~A$4.92 billion). Intelligent Investor+1
- Underlying EBITDA: About A$3.5 billion, a ~60% year‑on‑year increase. Intelligent Investor+1
- Net profit after tax (NPAT): Around A$1.34 billion, with underlying NPAT ~A$1.415 billion, more than doubling year‑on‑year (~105% growth). Kalkine+2Intelligent Investor+2
- Gold sold: Approximately 1.63–1.634 million ounces, slightly higher than FY24. Intelligent Investor+2NSR Limited+2
- Average realised gold price: ~A$3,922 per ounce, up from about A$3,031/oz in FY24 – a ~29% jump that more than offset cost inflation. Silverstone+1
- All‑in sustaining cost (AISC): A$2,163/oz, up ~17% year‑on‑year amid higher labour, maintenance, energy and royalty costs. Intelligent Investor
- Underlying free cash flow: ~A$536 million, up ~16%. Silverstone+1
On capital returns:
- The board declared a record final dividend of 30 cents per share, taking the total FY25 dividend to 55 cents, a 37% increase versus FY24. ASX Announcements+2Kalkine+2
- The company completed a A$300 million on‑market buyback, repurchasing about 27.2 million shares at an average price of A$11.04. Mining.com.au+1
- Combining dividends and buyback, Northern Star returned more than A$840 million to shareholders in FY25. ASX Announcements+1
This combination – strong earnings growth, higher dividends, net cash and an enlarged resource base – is the fundamental backdrop for the stock’s ~80% YTD gain. Yahoo Finance+2Kalkine+2
Growth pipeline: KCGM expansion, Hemi integration and FY26 guidance
De Grey / Hemi acquisition reshapes the portfolio
In 2025 Northern Star completed its A$5 billion all‑scrip takeover of De Grey Mining, adding the Hemi gold project in Western Australia to its portfolio and giving Northern Star a fourth major production centre in the making. Mining.com.au+2Simply Wall St+2
Macquarie’s research – summarised by Kalkine – highlights that De Grey shareholders now own about 20% of the combined group but are expected to contribute roughly 22% of pro‑forma reserves and ~21% of FY29 output, while lowering group AISC by an estimated 4% versus standalone Northern Star. Kalkine
Northern Star and various media reports have consistently pointed to a long‑term production trajectory above 2.5 million ounces per year by the late 2020s, anchored by KCGM, Yandal, Pogo and Hemi. The Australian+2Kalkine+2
KCGM Mill Expansion: the centrepiece capex project
The KCGM mill expansion – a ~A$1.5 billion project to increase throughput to 27 Mtpa from FY27 – remains the single biggest driver of Northern Star’s growth story. NSR Limited+1
FY26 guidance and subsequent commentary outline:
- KCGM growth capital in FY26 of A$500–550 million for open‑pit development (Fimiston South cutback) and underground development at Fimiston and Mt Charlotte. NSR Limited+1
- KCGM Mill Expansion Project capex of A$530–550 million in FY26 plus ~A$100 million in FY27. NSR Limited+1
- KCGM Operational Readiness spend of A$315–370 million in FY26, including new tailings facilities, a new thermal power station (the same thermal plant appearing in the Eastern Goldfields Power Projects) and associated infrastructure. Wartsila.com+3NSR Limited+3NSR Limited+3
The new Wärt silä‑powered thermal station and Zenith renewables hub effectively plug into this expansion, aiming to reduce long‑term power costs and emissions while underpinning higher, more stable mill throughput. Cyprus Shipping News+2PV Magazine Australia+2
FY26 production and cost guidance
Northern Star’s FY26 outlook, reiterated in both the June‑quarter report and FY25 results, is:
- Gold sold:1.70–1.85 million ounces
- Group AISC:A$2,300–2,700/oz, with costs expected to improve through the year as growth projects ramp. NSR Limited+2NSR Limited+2
- Exploration: ~A$225 million (discussed above). NSR Limited+2Capital Brief+2
- Growth capex: around A$1.14–1.2 billion operational growth capital across Kalgoorlie, Yandal and Pogo, plus the discrete KCGM expansion and Hemi spend. NSR Limited+2NSR Limited+2
Put simply, Northern Star is ploughing a huge amount of cash back into the ground: supporting the thesis of sustained production growth, but also raising the stakes for project‑execution risk.
Analyst ratings, price targets and quantitative forecasts
Sell‑side consensus: “Buy” with mid‑single‑digit upside
Across several major platforms, the analyst consensus on Northern Star as of early–mid December 2025 looks like this:
- Investing.com consensus:
- Average 12‑month target: ~A$27.98
- Range: A$13.70 – A$35.15
- Rating:“Buy”, based on 16 analysts (12 Buy, 2 Hold, 2 Sell). Investing.com+1
- TradingView:
- Lists a consensus target around A$29–29.5, with a high of A$35.15 and low of A$18.00. TradingView+1
- StocksGuide:
- Average target A$28.56, based on 16 estimates, with a high of A$37.07 and low of A$18.18. StocksGuide
- Fintel and other aggregators show a similar pattern, with an average target in the high‑A$20s and upside estimates typically in the 5–10% range versus the current price, depending on the day’s trade. Fintel+2Investing.com+2
Macquarie Research, as summarised by Kalkine, has maintained an Outperform rating through 2025, though it trimmed its target from A$27 to A$24 after earlier guidance cuts at KCGM. The broker’s positive stance rests on four pillars: long growth runway, scale leverage from KCGM, portfolio quality and a supportive gold macro environment. Kalkine
On balance, sell‑side analysts are bullish but not euphoric: they generally see moderate further upside after a very strong 2025, contingent on Northern Star executing its capex program without major cost or schedule blowouts and on gold prices remaining supportive.
Fundamental forecast models
Fundamental‑driven platforms such as Simply Wall St project:
- Earnings growth: ~17.7% per annum over the next few years.
- Revenue growth: ~11.3% per annum, to ~A$8.5bn in FY26 and ~A$10.1bn in FY27.
- Return on equity: forecast to rise towards ~16–17% by FY28. Simply Wall St
These models factor in:
- Higher volumes as KCGM and Hemi ramp up.
- Improved unit costs from economies of scale and new infrastructure.
- Ongoing capital intensity, especially through FY26–27.
Notably, Simply Wall St has at times flagged Northern Star as both undervalued and overvalued through 2025 as the share price has moved – a reminder that “intrinsic value” estimates are highly sensitive to the gold‑price assumptions and discount rates analysts plug in. Simply Wall St
Quant/technical forecasts
A few quantitative / technical sites add colour, though their models are driven by past price patterns rather than mine plans:
- StockInvest.us notes that NST has risen 5.06% in the last session (10 December), fluctuating about 3% intraday, and that the share price has drifted modestly higher over the past two weeks. StockInvest
- WalletInvestor’s long‑dated forecast for the OTC symbol suggests a gradual grind higher over several years, with projected prices in the low‑ to mid‑20s USD by 2027–2030. Walletinvestor
These algorithmic projections can be useful for gauging how momentum‑based systems are reading the stock, but they generally do not understand geology, capex or political risk – so they shouldn’t be treated as fundamental valuation work.
Divergent views: US “Hold” vs ASX “Buy”
One interesting counterpoint comes from a Seeking Alpha analysis of the US‑traded Northern Star instruments, which rates the stock a “Hold”. The piece argues that while fundamentals are strong, liquidity on US markets is thin and valuation metrics there look stretched. Seeking Alpha
This doesn’t negate the bullish ASX‑centric consensus, but it underlines that entry point and listing venue matter, especially for international investors who might be constrained to the OTC version of the stock.
Key opportunities and risks from here
What’s working in Northern Star’s favour
- Scale and diversification
Northern Star is now one of the world’s larger listed gold producers, with three operating centres (Kalgoorlie, Yandal, Pogo) plus the Hemi development, spread across stable jurisdictions in Australia and North America. LinkedIn+2The Australian+2 - Exploration‑driven growth at low discovery cost
Management highlights an industry‑leading resource addition cost of about A$19/oz over the 12 months to March 2025, supporting the view that the company can extend mine lives at attractive economics. NSR Limited+1 - Strong balance sheet and investment‑grade rating
Net cash, ample liquidity and the new ‘BBB‑’ Fitch rating give Northern Star room to finance big projects while still returning capital to shareholders. Fitch Ratings+2Kalkine+2 - Power and decarbonisation strategy
The combination of the Eastern Goldfields Power Projects and the 120 MW Wärt silä plant should, if executed well, improve power reliability and emissions intensity for decades – a key competitive advantage in a region that has suffered highly publicised grid reliability issues. The Australian+3Allens+3Renewables Now+3 - Favourable gold macro backdrop
Analysts and media coverage alike point to a structural bid under gold prices, driven by geopolitical tension, central‑bank buying and a weaker US dollar, with some forecasts suggesting gold could reach US$6,000/oz by 2026 in bullish scenarios. Courier Mail+1
Main watchpoints and downside risks
- Execution risk at KCGM and Hemi
The company has already had to trim production guidance and lift cost guidance once in FY25, citing KCGM operational issues and higher maintenance costs. Mining.com.au+2NSR Limited+2 With billions of dollars in capex earmarked for KCGM and Hemi, schedule delays or overruns would quickly dent the investment case. - Persistent cost inflation
FY25 AISC rose 17% to A$2,163/oz despite strong volumes and higher prices. Labour, energy and consumables remain under pressure across the Australian mining sector – there is no guarantee that AISC will drift lower in a straight line. Intelligent Investor+1 - Gold‑price sensitivity
Northern Star is leveraged to gold. The same factors that have driven prices up – geopolitics, rates, currency shifts – can reverse, and many bullish longer‑term price forecasts are far from guaranteed. Courier Mail+1 - Shareholder overhangs and ownership changes
In recent months, Gold Fields’ A$1.1 billion stake in Northern Star has been sold into the market via a JPMorgan‑run block trade, showing that large parcels can and do move. While this can improve free float, it can also weigh on the share price in the short term. The Australian+1 - Valuation after a big run
With the share price near its 52‑week high and the stock having delivered 50‑plus record highs and ~80% YTD gains, some commentators now frame the risk–reward as more balanced, especially if gold or risk appetite cools. The Motley Fool Australia+2Yahoo Finance+2
Bottom line: where Northern Star stands on 11 December 2025
As of 11 December 2025, Northern Star Resources sits at an interesting intersection:
- Operationally, it has just delivered a record profit year, reaffirmed an aggressive A$225m exploration program, and is progressing the KCGM expansion and Hemi integration that underpin a >2.5Moz production ambition. Kalkine+3NSR Limited+3NSR Limited+3
- Strategically, it is tying that growth to long‑dated renewable and flexible thermal power infrastructure, which could structurally lower emissions and power risk at its flagship operations. Cyprus Shipping News+3Allens+3Renewables Now+3
- Financially, it offers a modest dividend yield, net cash balance sheet and an investment‑grade rating, but trades on a premium multiple after a sharp re‑rating. Yahoo Finance+3ASX Announcements+3Investing.com+3
- In the market, consensus analyst targets cluster in the high‑A$20s, implying single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from current levels, while also flagging the usual caveats around execution and gold‑price risk. Fintel+3Investing.com+3TradingView+3
For readers following the stock on Google News or Discover, the near‑term story is likely to revolve around:
- Progress updates on the KCGM mill expansion and power projects.
- Ongoing drill results from Kalgoorlie, Yandal, Pogo and Hemi.
- The next earnings release (currently expected around February 2026) and any update to FY26 guidance. Investing.com+2Market Index+2
