New York, Jan 31, 2026, 05:43 (EST) — Market closed.
- Novavax shares closed Friday roughly 6.4% lower, at $8.85.
- On Monday, investors will focus on updates related to partner-driven cash and upcoming milestones.
- Attention now shifts to the upcoming earnings reports and annual filings.
Novavax shares ended Friday at $8.85, slipping roughly 6.4% during the session. U.S. markets remain closed over the weekend and will open again Monday.
The sharp move highlights a company still grappling with slipping revenue as its COVID-19 vaccine sales wane and partnerships gain importance. In November, Novavax delayed its profitability goal to 2028 and projected preliminary adjusted revenue for 2026 between $185 million and $205 million, excluding sales and royalties from its Sanofi deal. (Reuters)
The immediate focus is on cash timing and upcoming filings. A securities filing for a January license-and-option deal reveals Novavax expects a $30 million upfront payment in Q1 2026. On top of that, there could be up to $500 million more linked to development and sales milestones — payments triggered by hitting set targets — along with high mid-single-digit royalties on net sales.
The deal with Pfizer focuses on Matrix-M — an immune-boosting adjuvant used in vaccines — granting Pfizer rights in up to two infectious-disease areas. Novavax CEO John Jacobs told Reuters this month that interest in Matrix-M has grown “multiples more” since earlier in his tenure. Strategy chief Elaine O’Hara described the non-aluminum adjuvant as a “robust alternative.” H.C. Wainwright analysts noted the agreement could “help secure the long-term future of Novavax,” coming amid calls from Shah Capital for strategic moves, including a potential sale. (Reuters)
Friday’s decline came amid a broadly weaker stock market. Novavax traded around 5 million shares, surpassing its 50-day average volume. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.94% and the Dow fell 0.36%. Novavax underperformed, even as Pfizer gained 1.3% and Merck climbed 1.8%, according to MarketWatch data. (MarketWatch)
The drop came after a 2.3% gain on Thursday, when the stock ended at $9.44, highlighting just how fast sentiment can shift for this name. (MarketWatch)
Traders will be watching closely this week to see how fast licensing deals convert into revenue and if partners provide more defined timelines. Pfizer holds the reins on development and commercialization in the agreement, with larger milestone payments tied to trial progress and eventual sales.
The path forward carries execution risks, and plans relying on partners can falter. Novavax has depended on supply and licensing deals to bolster revenue and previously warned of a post-marketing study for its COVID vaccine, projected to cost between $70 million and $90 million. Reuters reported that partner Sanofi is expected to cover about 70% of that expense. (Reuters)
The company is still a minor contender in a market largely controlled by major vaccine producers, offering its protein-based shot as an alternative to the mRNA vaccines from competitors.
The upcoming results window is the next clear catalyst. Nasdaq’s earnings calendar currently shows Novavax set to report on Feb. 26, but companies often revise dates as they finalize their schedules. (Nasdaq)
