Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Stock Today: Akero Deal, GLP‑1 Competition and Analyst Downgrades – What 10 December 2025 Means for Investors

Novo Nordisk stock is having a very noisy December 10, 2025.

American depositary shares of Novo Nordisk A/S (ticker NVO) recently traded around $48 in New York, up roughly 3–4% intraday, with the session range hovering between about $47 and $48.3. That rebound comes after months of brutal underperformance and a barrage of fresh news: an M&A deal closing, obesity pipeline updates, an important downgrade from Argus, and increasingly loud questions about whether the GLP‑1 champion can hold its crown.

This is exactly the kind of setup that confuses the daylights out of investors: bullish long‑term story, ugly short‑term chart, and a wall of mixed analyst takes. Let’s unpack what actually changed today and how it fits into the broader Novo Nordisk stock story.

Novo Nordisk stock today: price action in context

Over the last 12 months, Novo Nordisk shares have plunged about 58.5%, badly underperforming both its industry (up about 7%) and the broader market. ^[1] For a company that once felt untouchable in obesity drugs, that is a serious fall from grace.

Yet valuation has reset hard:

Zacks notes that Novo Nordisk now trades at a forward P/E of ~12.7, versus an industry average around 16.5 and far below its own five‑year average multiple of about 29.3. ^[2]
AInvest’s discounted cash flow (DCF) model goes even further, arguing the shares are roughly 69% undervalued, with an intrinsic value of about $150 per share versus the current ~$48 level. ^[3]

So we have a paradox: the stock chart screams “problems,” the valuation screams “bargain,” and the news flow is… complicated.

Key Novo Nordisk news on 10 December 2025

1. Argus downgrades NVO to Hold on GLP‑1 pressures

The headline move today on the sell‑side side: Argus Research downgraded Novo Nordisk from Buy to Hold on December 8, a call that is still echoing around the market. ^[4]

In its note (summarized via Finviz), Argus essentially argued:

Novo is seeing market‑share erosion in GLP‑1 drugs, including Ozempic (diabetes) and Wegovy (obesity).
The company is agreeing to bring down GLP‑1 prices in the U.S., and faces the coming emergence of generics/competitors in some international markets. ^[5]
Some of Novo Nordisk’s recent clinical trial results have “failed to impress”, particularly semaglutide’s performance in Alzheimer’s disease, where trials did not show a clear benefit over placebo in slowing disease progression. ^[6]

Argus did not attach a new price target, which in itself is a bit of a statement: the firm essentially stepped away from the “this is clearly undervalued” camp and moved into “wait and see.”

At the same time, the note highlights a key near‑term catalyst: Novo has submitted a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) to the FDA for a higher 7.2 mg dose of Wegovy, aiming for chronic weight management in adults with obesity under an expedited review program that could lead to a decision within 1–2 months of filing acceptance. ^[7]

2. Other analysts do see upside – and India opens up

The day is not all downgrades. Another Finviz‑tracked piece today highlights that analysts, on balance, still lean bullish:

Berenberg recently reaffirmed a Buy rating on Novo Nordisk with a $62 price target, implying roughly 29% upside from around $48. ^[8]
Overall, almost 60% of covering analysts rate the stock at Buy or equivalent, with a median price target around $62.0, again implying roughly 30% upside from recent trading levels. ^[9]

The same coverage also flags a strategic commercial move: Ozempic is expected to launch in India this month, positioning Novo Nordisk in what may be the second‑largest type 2 diabetes population in the world and a rapidly expanding obesity market that could reach around $150 billion annually by the end of the decade. ^[10]

That’s a meaningful long‑term lever: India is exactly the kind of massive, underpenetrated market that can keep GLP‑1 volume growth alive even as pricing tightens in the U.S. and Europe.

3. Acquisition of Akero Therapeutics closes

On the M&A front, Novo Nordisk officially completed its acquisition of Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) as of December 9, with the press release published today. ^[11]

Key deal terms and implications:

Novo paid $54 per share in cash, valuing the upfront deal at about $4.7 billion, plus a contingent value right worth an additional $6 per share (about $0.5 billion) tied to U.S. regulatory approval of Akero’s lead candidate efruxifermin (EFX) for MASH (metabolic dysfunction‑associated steatohepatitis) with compensated cirrhosis. ^[12]
Akero is now a wholly owned subsidiary, and its shares are being delisted from Nasdaq. ^[13]
EFX is in multiple Phase 3 trials targeting advanced fatty liver disease (MASH with pre‑cirrhotic and cirrhotic stages). ^[14]

Strategically, this pushes Novo deeper into cardiometabolic complications beyond obesity and diabetes themselves — particularly liver disease — and diversifies the pipeline away from pure semaglutide dependence.

4. Lexicon’s LX9851 obesity pill data backs Novo’s non‑incretin bet

Also today, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals published preclinical data on ACSL5 inhibition underpinning its oral obesity candidate LX9851, which Novo Nordisk licensed globally back in March 2025. ^[15]

Highlights from the Lexicon release:

Mice lacking ACSL5 or treated with potent oral ACSL5 inhibitors showed lower body weight and fat, reduced triglycerides, cholesterol and blood glucose, while preserving lean mass. ^[16]
The mechanism is linked to activation of the “ileal brake” – slowing gastric emptying and reducing food intake – a different pathway than GLP‑1 incretin signaling. ^[17]
Lexicon emphasizes the potential of LX9851 as a non‑incretin, oral small‑molecule obesity therapy, including combination use with GLP‑1 agonists such as semaglutide. ^[18]

For Novo shareholders, this matters because it hints at a post‑GLP‑1 world, or at least a GLP‑1‑plus world: a pipeline stocked with multiple mechanisms (ACSL5, amycretin, CagriSema, etc.) instead of one molecule doing all the heavy lifting.

5. Zacks: Can NVO hold its obesity lead as rivals swarm?

A big thematic piece out today, syndicated via Nasdaq from Zacks, leans more skeptical. It asks bluntly: “Can NVO defend its obesity lead as GLP‑1 competition intensifies?” ^[19]

The article’s key points:

Sales momentum for Ozempic and Wegovy has slowed, pressured by:
- U.S. pricing and reimbursement pushback
- Intensifying GLP‑1 competition from Eli Lilly
- FX headwinds
- Widespread use of compounded semaglutide in the U.S. ^[20]
Smaller biotechs are sprinting into obesity:
- Structure Therapeutics reported strong Phase 2b data for its oral GLP‑1 candidate aleniglipron, with up to 15.3% placebo‑adjusted weight loss at higher doses. ^[21]
- Viking Therapeutics is running late‑stage trials of VK2735, another dual GIPR/GLP‑1 RA with both oral and subcutaneous formulations. ^[22]
Eli Lilly is loading the pipeline with oral and injectable obesity candidates like orforglipron (oral GLP‑1), retatrutide (triple agonist) and others, with orforglipron filings expected soon. ^[23]

On the Novo side, Zacks outlines the company’s counter‑moves:

CagriSema (cagrilintide + semaglutide) hit statistically significant weight‑loss endpoints in Phase 3 but under‑delivered relative to investor hype; Novo plans to file in 2026. ^[24]
Cagrilintide monotherapy will enter a dedicated Phase 3 RENEW obesity program. ^[25]
Novo is also pushing amycretin (oral and subcutaneous) and oral monlunabant through mid‑stage obesity and diabetes trials. ^[26]

The stinger at the end: Zacks assigns Novo Nordisk a Rank #5 (Strong Sell) and notes that earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward in recent months. ^[27]

So: some analysts see deep value; others see a structurally impaired leader being swarmed by faster, cheaper rivals. Both can be partly right.

Fundamentals and latest earnings: growth, but not effortless

The macro financial picture is less “hyper‑growth rocket” and more “grown‑up cash machine with growing pains.”

Revenue and profit trends

Based on compiled analyst forecasts (StockAnalysis, StocksGuide):

2024 revenue: about DKK 290.4 billion
2025 revenue forecast: about DKK 313 billion, implying ~7.8% year‑over‑year growth. ^[28]
2026 revenue forecast: around DKK 319 billion, only ~1.9% growth, before picking up again further out in some models. ^[29]

Earnings per share (EPS) follow a similar pattern:

EPS 2024 (forecast): ~22.6 DKK
EPS 2025 (forecast): ~23.8 DKK, up about 5.3%
EPS 2026 (forecast): essentially flat vs 2025, with only ~0.2% growth in the consensus baseline. ^[30]

In other words: analysts still expect growth, but nowhere near the 25–30%+ GLP‑1 hyper‑growth era. This is what a normalization looks like.

Q3 2025 snapshot

Third‑quarter 2025 results captured this cooling:

Novo’s Diabetes and Obesity Care segment delivered around DKK 70.3 billion in sales, up 11% year over year, but overall revenue and earnings missed some expectations amid U.S. hurdles for GLP‑1 drugs. ^[31]
Reuters reported that Novo trimmed its outlook and took a more cautious tone, citing:
- Tightening U.S. insurance budgets
- Pricing pressure
- Patent expiry risks
- Competitive dynamics, even as it announced a $10 billion bid for Metsera to fortify its obesity pipeline. ^[32]

The underlying business is still growing nicely. The problem, from the market’s perspective, is that growth is no longer jaw‑dropping, while the challenges – competition, pricing, regulators – are becoming much more visible.

What Wall Street is actually saying about Novo Nordisk stock

Strip away the noise and the verdict from the analyst community is genuinely split.

Consensus price targets and ratings

From StockAnalysis and StocksGuide:

On the U.S. NVO listing, 4 tracked analysts carry an average “Buy” rating with an average 12‑month price target of about $54.25, implying ~13% upside from ~$48; the range runs from $46 (slightly below current price) to $70 (roughly 45% upside). ^[33]
On the Danish listing (NOVO B), 32 analysts are tracked:
- 18 rate the stock a Buy
- 11 rate it Hold
- 3 rate it Sell
- They collectively model an average upside potential of ~39.6% by 2026. ^[34]

Finviz adds that about 60% of analysts currently lean Buy, with a median U.S. price target near $62, close to Berenberg’s $62 call. ^[35]

But the downgrade drumbeat is getting louder:

Argus: Strong Buy → Hold (no target), December 8. ^[36]
Goldman Sachs: trimming target from $60 to $54, still at Strong Buy. ^[37]
BMO Capital: Hold, cutting target from $50 to $46. ^[38]
HSBC: Strong Buy → Hold, no updated target disclosed. ^[39]
Jefferies: initiated coverage with a Sell rating in late October. ^[40]
Zacks: Rank #5 – Strong Sell. ^[41]

So, at a high level:

Valuation people: “GLP‑1 cash flows + new pipeline at 12–13x earnings is cheap.”
Momentum and estimate‑trend people: “This is a de‑rating in progress with earnings cuts and rising competition.”

Both perspectives show up starkly in the research.

Strategic outlook: obesity, liver disease and next‑gen pipelines

Today’s news sits on top of a broader strategic picture.

GLP‑1 and oral weight‑loss pills

Novo is trying to extend and defend its GLP‑1 franchise on multiple fronts:

Higher‑dose Wegovy 7.2 mg: sNDA submitted in November 2025; under an expedited FDA pilot program that may cut review times to 1–2 months once accepted. ^[42]
Oral semaglutide for obesity: Novo has submitted an oral GLP‑1 weight‑loss pill for FDA approval, with a decision expected before the end of 2025 and a potential U.S. launch in early 2026 if approved. ^[43]

This pill would compete directly with rivals like Eli Lilly’s orforglipron, now moving toward regulatory filings after showing double‑digit percentage weight loss in trials. ^[44]

Beyond GLP‑1: combo drugs, new mechanisms, and Akero

Novo’s longer‑term moat will likely depend on how well it executes beyond “just semaglutide”:

CagriSema (cagrilintide + semaglutide):
- Achieved significant weight loss in Phase 3 REDEFINE 1 and 2.
- But results were below the very high expectations set by some investors. ^[45]
- Regulatory filing planned for 2026. ^[46]
Cagrilintide monotherapy: moving into a dedicated Phase 3 RENEW program, potentially offering another injectable option with a distinct mechanism. ^[47]
Amycretin: mid‑stage candidate available in both oral and subcutaneous forms, targeting obesity and diabetes. ^[48]
Monlunabant: oral candidate in mid‑stage obesity studies. ^[49]
Akero’s efruxifermin (EFX): now under Novo’s roof and being tested across three Phase 3 trials for MASH, giving Novo a potential first‑in‑class fatty‑liver‑disease asset tightly linked to obesity and metabolic syndrome. ^[50]
LX9851 (Lexicon): a non‑incretin oral obesity drug targeting ACSL5, with promising mouse data and the potential to be used alone or alongside GLP‑1s. ^[51]

Put simply: Novo is building a multi‑drug, multi‑mechanism obesity and metabolic portfolio. That’s a smart response to competition, but it’s also expensive and risky.

Key risks weighing on NVO stock

The market isn’t punishing Novo Nordisk just for fun; there are real issues here.

Intensifying competition
Eli Lilly, Structure Therapeutics, Viking and others are closing the gap with potent GLP‑1 and non‑GLP‑1 obesity agents, including oral options with eye‑catching weight‑loss data. ^[52]
Pricing and payer pushback
U.S. payers are tightening coverage and pushing to lower GLP‑1 prices; Argus explicitly flags Novo’s willingness to cut prices and face generics abroad, which compresses margins. ^[53]
Clinical disappointments
The Alzheimer’s disease program using semaglutide has underwhelmed so far, showing limited biological effect and failing to clearly beat placebo in slowing disease progression, knocking sentiment and raising questions about how far semaglutide’s magic extends beyond metabolism. ^[54]
Slowing growth and estimate cuts
The step‑down in GLP‑1 growth rates and downward revisions to 2025–2026 earnings estimates underpin Zacks’ Strong Sell rating and broader caution among more value‑ and estimate‑driven analysts. ^[55]
Execution risk in M&A and pipeline
Deals like Akero and partnerships like Lexicon and Septerna can create big value — or big write‑offs — depending on trial outcomes and regulatory decisions. ^[56]

Bottom line: Is Novo Nordisk stock a buy after today’s news?

On 10 December 2025, you can summarize the NVO setup like this:

The bull case
- A still‑growing GLP‑1 franchise in diabetes and obesity.
- Huge, long‑duration secular tailwinds: global obesity, diabetes and related cardiometabolic disease aren’t going away.
- An expanding pipeline (CagriSema, amycretin, monlunabant, LX9851, EFX) and smart M&A like Akero that broadens the cardio‑metabolic footprint. ^[57]
- A valuation that has reset to low‑teens earnings multiples, with many analysts projecting double‑digit to high‑teens upside over 12–18 months and more over a multi‑year horizon. ^[58]
The bear case
- GLP‑1 no longer feels like an unassailable monopoly; competition is real, fast and innovative. ^[59]
- Pricing pressure and payer pushback threaten margins precisely as growth decelerates. ^[60]
- Earnings estimates have been drifting downward, not upward, and some influential frameworks (Zacks, Jefferies, HSBC, Argus) have shifted to Hold/Sell. ^[61]
- Execution across a complex multi‑asset pipeline and M&A stack is non‑trivial.

If you’re a long‑horizon, risk‑tolerant investor who believes Novo can retain a leading share of obesity treatments and convert its pipeline into commercial launches, the current discount vs history and peers is a strong part of the bull thesis.

If you’re more focused on 12–24‑month momentum, estimate revisions, and competitive clarity, you can see why some research desks have moved to the sidelines or outright negative.

Either way, after today’s stew of downgrades, deal news, and pipeline reinforcement, Novo Nordisk stock is no longer the easy “obvious winner” it looked like a couple of years ago. It’s a classic big‑pharma transition story: still powerful, but now in a knife fight.