Novo Nordisk Stock (NVO) in December 2025: Alzheimer’s Failure, GLP‑1 Price Cuts and 2026 Turnaround Hopes

Updated December 7, 2025 – for information only, not investment advice.

Novo Nordisk stock today: from market darling to turnaround story

Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO), the Danish giant behind GLP‑1 blockbusters Wegovy and Ozempic, has gone from Europe’s most valuable listed company to a bruised turnaround story in 2025.

The U.S. ADR now trades around $47.9 per share.
Multiple outlets estimate the stock is down roughly 45–46% year‑to‑date and more than 50% from its 2024 peak, after a string of profit warnings, slower GLP‑1 growth and a high‑profile Alzheimer’s trial failure. ^[1]
At the same time, consensus 12‑month price targets cluster above the current price, implying double‑digit percentage upside if Wall Street is right. ^[2]

For investors, NVO has abruptly shifted from a “can do no wrong” growth icon to a complex mix of structural strengths (dominant GLP‑1 franchise, deep pipeline, global reach) and cyclical headaches (pricing pressure, competition, R&D setbacks).

The Alzheimer’s shock: EVOKE and EVOKE+ miss their goal

The biggest single blow of 2025 came on 24 November, when Novo reported top‑line results from its EVOKE and EVOKE+ phase 3 trials of oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) in early Alzheimer’s disease.

Across roughly 3,800 patients followed for two years, semaglutide failed to significantly slow cognitive decline versus placebo, missing the primary endpoint of about a 20% reduction in disease progression. ^[3]
Scientific coverage notes that while some biomarkers improved, clinically meaningful benefit wasn’t demonstrated, making this an important negative read‑through for GLP‑1s in Alzheimer’s – at least as monotherapy. ^[4]

Markets reacted instantly:

On the day of the announcement, NVO plunged nearly 10% intraday to around $42, its lowest level since mid‑2021, before closing near $47. ^[5]
Commentators estimate the shares are now down roughly 45% in 2025 and ~55% year‑on‑year, wiping away much of the “Alzheimer’s option value” investors had quietly priced in. ^[6]

In a follow‑up appearance at the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease (CTAD) meeting, Novo executives defended the decision to run the trials, arguing that GLP‑1 biology in the brain remains scientifically interesting despite the miss. ^[7] For shareholders, however, the key takeaway is simple: Alzheimer’s is off the table as a near‑term growth driver.

The core GLP‑1 obesity and diabetes business is still intact – but the room for heroic “bonus upside” has narrowed.

GLP‑1 slowdown, guidance cuts and price pressure

Well before the Alzheimer’s readout, Novo was already under pressure from slowing growth in Wegovy and Ozempic and fierce competition from Eli Lilly.

Q3 2025: growth, but not enough

In its third‑quarter 2025 results:

Revenue rose to about DKK 74.98 billion (≈$11.5 billion), up ~5% year‑over‑year, but below analyst expectations. ^[8]
Adjusted earnings per share were DKK 4.50, missing forecasts by roughly DKK 0.20. ^[9]
Wegovy sales climbed 18% year‑on‑year to around DKK 20.35 billion (~$3.1 billion), a sharp slowdown from ~67% growth in Q2. ^[10]
Ozempic sales grew just 3% to about DKK 30.74 billion (~$4.7 billion), down from ~15% growth in Q2. ^[11]

Novo cut its full‑year 2025 sales and profit outlook yet again, now guiding to high single‑digit sales growth (≈8–11%) and low‑ to mid‑single‑digit operating profit growth (≈4–7%), versus higher ranges earlier in the year. ^[12]

At the same time, Lilly reported triple‑digit year‑over‑year growth for obesity drug Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro, and by September held roughly 58% of U.S. GLP‑1 prescriptions versus Novo’s 42%, according to IQVIA data cited in Lilly’s own earnings materials. ^[13]

The message from the numbers: Novo is still growing, but no longer dominating.

2026 price cuts: up to 70% reductions in the U.S.

Looking ahead, Novo has agreed to significant U.S. price cuts for semaglutide products starting in 2026:

Company announcements and coverage indicate list prices for some Wegovy and Ozempic formulations will fall by as much as ~70% in the United States. ^[14]
Analysts warn this could weigh on global sales growth in 2026, even as volume expands. ^[15]
One industry analysis still projects semaglutide‑based revenue could approach ~$36 billion in 2026, if lower prices unlock broader access and Medicare coverage. ^[16]

Put simply: Novo is trading margin for volume, under political, payer, and competitive pressure. For a stock that once traded at “dream multiple” valuations, that’s a big reset.

Pipeline updates: amycretin, CagriSema and a higher Wegovy dose

The bullish counter‑argument rests heavily on Novo’s next‑generation obesity pipeline and lifecycle management of its GLP‑1 franchise.

Amycretin: the next wave after semaglutide?

Amycretin is a dual agonist targeting both GLP‑1 and amylin – designed to beat semaglutide on weight loss and metabolic control.

Key data and steps so far:

In early 2025, a subcutaneous amycretin study reported around 22% average weight loss at 36 weeks, immediately framing the drug as a potential “best‑in‑class” successor to Wegovy. ^[17]
On 25 November 2025, Novo released mid‑stage (phase 2) results in 448 patients with type 2 diabetes and overweight or obesity. The trial showed up to 14.5% weight loss at 36 weeks, with a safety profile consistent with other GLP‑1 and amylin agonists. Shares rose on the news as Novo confirmed plans for late‑stage trials starting in 2026. ^[18]

Given that semaglutide patents start to expire in 2031–2032, amycretin is widely viewed as a critical bridge to the post‑semaglutide era.

CagriSema: moving into paediatrics

CagriSema, a combination of semaglutide and the amylin analogue cagrilintide, is another key asset. Adult trials have already shown superior weight loss versus semaglutide alone, and Novo is now pushing into younger populations. ^[19]

A new late‑stage trial in overweight and obese children and adolescents is set to begin in January 2026, enrolling about 460 participants aged eight and above across 97 sites in the U.S., Europe and China. ^[20]

This paediatric pivot expands Novo’s addressable obesity market and reinforces the company’s message that GLP‑1s will be used earlier and for longer in high‑risk patients.

Wegovy 7.2 mg: pushing efficacy higher

To extend Wegovy’s competitive life, Novo has filed for a higher‑dose version:

On 26 November 2025, Novo submitted a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) to the U.S. FDA for Wegovy 7.2 mg weekly injection for chronic weight management in adults.
The company expects a rapid, 1–2 month review under an expedited program after the filing is accepted. ^[21]

A higher dose may appeal to patients who plateau on current 2.4 mg dosing, offering another way to differentiate Wegovy in a crowded field.

Ozempic expansion: entering India on the eve of generics

Novo is also chasing volume growth in emerging markets:

According to recent reporting, the company is preparing to launch Ozempic in India in December 2025, targeting the world’s second‑largest population of people with type 2 diabetes. ^[22]
Patent expiry in India from 2026 means local manufacturers are already working on semaglutide generics, so Novo’s launch is a race to build brand loyalty before copycats arrive. ^[23]

Altogether, the pipeline news paints a picture of Novo trying to run faster than its own patent cliffs and price cuts.

New CEO, big layoffs and an aggressive (but checked) M&A strategy

2025 was also the year Novo changed who sits in the big chair.

Mike Doustdar takes over

In July 2025, Novo Nordisk appointed Maziar “Mike” Doustdar – a company veteran since 1992 and former head of international operations – as CEO, following the abrupt removal of Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen. ^[24]

The backdrop:

By mid‑2024, Novo’s market value had peaked around $615 billion, making it Europe’s most valuable company. ^[25]
Slowing Wegovy sales, a profit warning and growing competitive pressure from Lilly then helped knock the valuation down by hundreds of billions of dollars. ^[26]

On his first quarterly call as CEO, Doustdar stressed that expanding access to Novo’s medicines and unlocking new sales channels would be central to reversing the slowdown. ^[27]

9,000 jobs cut to save 8 billion DKK a year

To protect profitability amid softer growth and price pressure, the new CEO has moved hard on costs:

Novo plans to cut around 9,000 jobs, roughly 11% of its 78,400‑strong workforce, including about 5,000 positions in Denmark. ^[28]
The restructuring targets annual savings of about 8 billion DKK (~$1.3 billion) by the end of 2026. ^[29]

The Danish government recently raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.6%, explicitly noting that Novo’s layoffs and profit warnings are not seen as a systemic threat to the national economy – a sign of both Novo’s importance and Denmark’s broader resilience. ^[30]

The Metsera bidding war: appetite for risk, but a limit on price

Doustdar has also shown a willingness to write large cheques for obesity‑focused M&A:

Reporting from the Financial Times and Reuters describes how Novo launched an aggressive bid for U.S. biotech Metsera, offering roughly $9 billion via a structure that front‑loaded payments for a 50% stake and deferred full control. ^[31]
The goal was to secure a pipeline of experimental obesity drugs and shore up Novo’s post‑semaglutide future. ^[32]
But the deal drew scrutiny from U.S. antitrust regulators, and Metsera ultimately accepted a sweetened offer from Pfizer in early November. Novo withdrew, and Pfizer closed the acquisition weeks later. ^[33]

Some shareholders have interpreted this as a positive sign of financial discipline – Novo showed willingness to take risk but refused to overpay once regulatory friction raised the stakes. ^[34]

What analysts are saying about Novo Nordisk stock

Despite the bruising year, most covering analysts remain constructive on NVO, though expectations are noticeably lower than they were at the height of GLP‑1 euphoria.

Price targets and ratings

Different data providers paint a similar picture:

A compilation on MarketBeat shows 21 analysts with an average 12‑month target price around $56 for the U.S. ADR, with a high estimate of $70 and a low of $42 – implying roughly 17% upside from the current price near $48. ^[35]
MarketWatch cites an even higher average target around $61 from about 32 analyst ratings. ^[36]
On the Copenhagen‑listed Class B shares (NOVO‑B), one forecast aggregator shows 27 analysts with a 2026 average target of about DKK 417.6 versus a current price near DKK 309.6, implying ≈35% potential upside, with targets ranging from DKK 283 to DKK 756. ^[37]

StockAnalysis, which tracks a smaller set of analysts, labels the consensus rating on NVO a “Buy,” with an average U.S. target around $54.25, about 13% above recent trading levels. ^[38]

Earnings forecasts and valuation reset

Analysts have been steadily trimming their numbers:

Zacks/Nasdaq commentary notes that 2025 EPS estimates have fallen from about $3.85 to $3.64 per ADR, and 2026 EPS estimates from $3.96 to around $3.91, over the past two months. ^[39]
Yet consensus still expects mid‑single‑digit EPS growth in DKK terms, with StockAnalysis aggregating forecasts of DKK 312.96 billion in revenue for 2025 (+7.8% year‑on‑year) and DKK 318.79 billion for 2026 (+1.9%), alongside modest EPS growth. ^[40]

With the share price roughly halved from its peak, forward‑looking valuation multiples have compressed to the low‑teens P/E, down from more than 30x at the height of the GLP‑1 boom – a shift that underpins many “buy the dip” arguments. ^[41]

Sentiment: “headwinds on the surface, value underneath?”

Recent analysis pieces from outlets such as The Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha and Zacks generally argue that:

The Alzheimer’s failure removed optional upside rather than cutting into the core franchise. ^[42]
The GLP‑1 slowdown is real but relative – Wegovy and Ozempic are still growing in absolute terms, only from a much higher base and against tougher competition. ^[43]
The combination of amycretin, CagriSema, new dosing strategies and geographic expansion could drive a “second act” for Novo’s obesity/diabetes franchise into the late 2020s. ^[44]

Some commentators go as far as calling 2025’s sell‑off one of the biggest buying opportunities of the decade for patient investors; others emphasise that the stock’s fate is still tightly bound to a single therapeutic axis (GLP‑1) and deserves a risk discount. ^[45]

Key upside and downside drivers for NVO

For investors trying to make sense of Novo Nordisk at this point, the main arguments on each side look roughly like this.

Bullish drivers

Category leadership in a structural growth market: Obesity and type 2 diabetes remain massively under‑treated; GLP‑1 therapies are still early in their penetration curve, with emerging indications in cardiovascular disease, kidney disease and sleep apnea. ^[46]
Deep pipeline behind semaglutide: Amycretin, CagriSema and other dual‑ or multi‑agonists may deliver stronger efficacy and durability, potentially extending Novo’s lead even as semaglutide ages. ^[47]
Scale and manufacturing know‑how: Building out global GLP‑1 capacity is non‑trivial; Novo’s existing infrastructure and know‑how create barriers to new entrants. ^[48]
Cost savings and disciplined capital allocation: The 9,000‑person layoff program and the decision to walk away from the Metsera bidding war once antitrust and price concerns mounted both point to a management team focused on protecting returns, not just chasing size. ^[49]
Valuation reset: With the stock now trading at far lower multiples, bulls argue that much of the bad news is already priced in while the long‑term GLP‑1 opportunity remains substantial. ^[50]

Bearish risks

Hyper‑concentration on GLP‑1 products: Wegovy, Ozempic and related semaglutide brands still account for a very large share of Novo’s revenue and growth; any safety scare, new competitor, or policy shock hits the whole story at once. ^[51]
Intensifying competition from Eli Lilly and, soon, generics: Lilly now leads the U.S. GLP‑1 market, and semaglutide patents will start expiring into the 2030s. Generic and biosimilar players in markets like India are already lining up. ^[52]
Pricing and political pressure: U.S. price cuts of up to 70%, Medicare negotiations and ongoing scrutiny of obesity‑drug costs could erode margins faster than volume can compensate. ^[53]
R&D and diversification questions: The Alzheimer’s failure raises questions about Novo’s ability to diversify beyond metabolic disease and about how much investors should pay for “blue‑sky” pipeline projects. ^[54]
Execution risk in restructuring and M&A: Large layoffs can hurt culture and innovation; pursuing big obesity deals while juggling regulatory scrutiny raises integration risk. ^[55]

Bottom line: a reset, not a collapse

As of December 7, 2025, Novo Nordisk looks less like an unstoppable GLP‑1 rocket ship and more like a maturing franchise facing a high‑stakes second act:

Growth is slower but still positive.
Profitability is compressing but cushioned by cost savings.
The pipeline is promising but must prove itself at scale.
The valuation is no longer euphoric – which could be either a trap or an opportunity, depending on whether amycretin, CagriSema and global expansion deliver.

For investors tracking NVO, the story in 2026 will hinge on three big questions:

Can Novo stabilise GLP‑1 market share versus Lilly while managing deep U.S. price cuts?
Will next‑generation assets like amycretin show enough advantage to justify another leg of growth?
Can the new CEO execute restructuring and targeted M&A without diluting returns?

Novo Nordisk Alzheimer’s studies may reveal GLP-1 benefits | REUTERS