NEW YORK, August 2, 2026, 18:13 EDT
- Nu rose 1.7% over the past week, ending Friday at $14.33.
- The company’s trailing P/E of 22.1 was approximately 2.5 times higher than the median of its peers.
- Both Mexico’s bank debut and the central bank’s policy announcement are scheduled for August 6.
Nu shares climbed last week, though expectations for earnings eased. The average preliminary Q2 EPS estimate slipped to $0.20, down from $0.21 a month earlier. Despite this, the stock rose 1.7% from July 24 through Friday.
This divide highlights the dilemma for investors. Nu is valued at 22.1 times its trailing earnings, while the median for peers stands at about nine. U.S. cash markets did not open on Sunday evening.
The tape for the week indicates Nu was not the top performer in the group. Weekly moves are calculated from the unadjusted closing prices on July 24 and July 31.
| Company | July 24 close | July 31 close | Weekly move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nu Holdings Ltd. | $14.09 | $14.33 | up 1.7% |
| Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. NYSE:ITUB | $8.28 | $8.46 | up 2.2% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A. NYSE:BBD | $3.60 | $3.61 | up 0.3% |
| Inter & Co Inc. NASDAQ:INTR | $5.29 | $5.60 | up 5.9% |
Friday showed a decline. Nu slipped 1.1%, as the S&P 500 rose 0.7%. Trading volume totaled 47.6 million shares, representing about 66% of its 65-day average.
The difference in valuation was significantly greater than the disparity in returns. The following numbers represent trailing P/E ratios.
| Company | Friday close | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|
| Nu Holdings | $14.33 | 22.1x |
| Itaú Unibanco | $8.46 | 10.7x |
| Banco Bradesco | $3.61 | 9.0x |
| Inter & Co | $5.60 | 8.9x |
Nu traded at roughly 2.5 times the median of its three closest peers. Its business mix makes precise comparisons difficult. However, at this price, there is less tolerance for underperformance in a given quarter.
The higher premium accompanies solid operating expansion. Nu reported first-quarter net income of $871 million and a 29% return on equity. Its business in Mexico achieved break-even.
However, before the release of the report, initial analyst projections declined.
| Preliminary EPS consensus | Current | One month ago | Three months ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.20 | $0.21 | $0.21 |
| Q3 2026 | $0.22 | $0.22 | $0.23 |
| Full-year 2026 | $0.84 | $0.84 | $0.87 |
The Q2 estimate declined by 4.8% compared with one month earlier. The annual estimate stands 3.4% lower than it did three months ago.
Markets are watching two key events in Mexico on Thursday. Nu Mexico will begin operating as a commercial bank on August 6, after completing its app migration on August 5. Separately, Banco de México’s rate decision is expected at 13:00 CST.
Mexico’s policy rate has remained at 6.50% since June 25. The upcoming decision will influence pricing for domestic deposits and loans. Both developments precede Nu’s earnings by one week.
Mexico is significant as Nu has over 15 million customers in the country. “In Mexico, the same earnings-generating formula that built Brazil has reached its inflection point,” Chief Executive David Vélez said in May. Nu International
Q1 results indicate what investors are set to evaluate next. The company growth percentages listed below are adjusted for foreign exchange.
| Q1 metric | Reported | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Global customers | Above 135 million | Roughly 4 million added net |
| Efficiency ratio | 17.6% | 19.9% for Q4 |
| 15–90 day NPL ratio | 5.0% | Increase of 89 basis points from prior quarter |
| Risk-adjusted net interest margin | 9.5% | Decrease of 100 basis points from prior quarter |
| Credit portfolio | $37.2 billion | Grew 40% compared to previous year |
| Net income | $871 million | Rose 41% versus year ago |
Management said initial rises in early-stage delinquency mainly reflected first-quarter seasonal effects. The second quarter will indicate if those levels have subsided. Another rise could challenge the valuation thesis.
The consensus price target among analysts is $17.59, representing an increase of around 23% from Friday’s closing price. However, individual targets range between $10 and $22, implying potential downside of approximately 30% or upside of up to 54%.
Risks: In Q2, there is potential for increased credit losses, declining risk-adjusted margins, or reduced pace of monetization. The migration in Mexico introduces added operational risks. Should Nu fall short, its premium could be rapidly compressed.
Nu is set to release its Q2 results after the U.S. market closes on August 13. Prior to that, Thursday’s bank debut and the upcoming rate announcement will put the Mexico narrative to the test.
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