Nu Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NU) — the parent of Nubank — closed Friday, Dec. 12, 2025 at about $16.90, ending a steadier week after early-December volatility. [1]
For investors tracking NU stock into next week, the story is less about a single earnings headline (Nu’s next results are still months away) and more about a regulatory-driven banking license push in Brazil, a fresh growth milestone in Colombia, and a macro backdrop dominated by Latin American interest-rate signals. [2]
NU stock performance this week: grinding higher after the Dec. 5 drop
After a sharp selloff on Dec. 5 (a session when NU closed down about 5.38%), the stock stabilized and worked higher through the following five sessions, finishing the week near $16.90. [3]
On a “last five sessions” basis, MarketWatch data showed NU up about 1.20% over five days, while still up roughly 63% year to date — a reminder that the stock remains in an “up big, scrutinized more” phase for many portfolios. [4]
The biggest company headline in days: Nubank targets a Brazil banking license in 2026
The most consequential near-term corporate development is Nu’s move toward becoming a licensed bank in Brazil — a shift driven by regulation and brand rules as much as strategy.
In a Form 6‑K filed with the SEC, Nu said Nubank intends to obtain a banking license in Brazil in 2026, noting the step aligns with Joint Resolution No. 17 (Central Bank + National Monetary Council) that standardizes brand-name usage for regulated institutions. Nu also emphasized:
- Brand and visual identity will remain unchanged
- No impact on clients; operations continue normally
- Nubank has more than 110 million customers in Brazil
- The inclusion of a banking institution “does not materially alter” additional capital and liquidity requirements [5]
Why investors care
For NU stock, a Brazil bank license can cut both ways in the narrative:
Potential positives
- Regulatory clarity around the “bank” branding issue (reduces uncertainty)
- A pathway to broaden products over time (deposits, credit, payments), depending on how licensing is structured and supervised
Key questions
- Whether Nu will pursue the license organically or accelerate it via M&A
- Whether the market begins to price in higher compliance costs (even if management says capital/liquidity impact is not material)
Bloomberg/TheFly report: Nu may look at a small-bank acquisition to speed licensing
Adding fuel to the licensing storyline, a report attributed to Bloomberg (carried by TheFly/TipRanks) said Nu is reviewing candidates to acquire a small bank in Brazil that already has a license — with Banco Digimais cited as one candidate in the report. [6]
Nu has not (as of these reports) published a detailed M&A roadmap, but in the context of brand-name regulation and licensing timelines, investors tend to treat this as a plausible “fast track” scenario — and one that could introduce near-term headline risk (deal price, integration, approvals) alongside long-term regulatory benefits.
Growth headline: Nu Colombia reaches 4 million customers and expands credit
While Brazil drives most of Nubank’s scale, Nu is also pushing hard internationally — and Colombia delivered a notable datapoint this week.
In a company update dated Dec. 11, 2025, Nu said it now serves 4 million customers in Colombia — about one in every ten adults — and highlighted the strategic importance of expanding its local credit offering. [7]
The company also pointed to structural conditions that matter for long-run fintech penetration:
- A “usury rate” cap (the update referenced a cap “around 25%”) that affects how lenders price risk
- A statistic that only 35% of the population has access to formal credit — implying runway, but also underwriting challenges [8]
The fundamental backdrop: Nu’s “growth + profitability” thesis remains intact
Zooming out from daily headlines, Nu’s most recent quarterly update (Q3 2025) underpins why NU stock still draws attention even after a strong year-to-date run.
In its Q3 2025 results release, Nu reported:
- 127 million customers globally (after adding 4.3 million in Q3)
- Record revenue “over $4 billion” (reported as $4.2B)
- Net income of $783 million
- Annualized ROE of 31%
- ARPAC reaching $13.4
- Cost to serve per active customer around $0.90
- 15–90 day NPL ratio at 4.2%; 90+ NPL ratio 6.8% [9]
Those numbers reinforce the core bull case: a low-cost digital model scaling across large underbanked markets — while the bear case typically focuses on valuation, credit-cycle risk, FX, and regulation.
Analyst outlook: upgrades, price targets, and a market still split
Recent analyst moves show that Wall Street remains interested but not unanimous on NU stock.
- TipRanks/TheFly reported Grupo Santander upgraded Nu Holdings to Outperform from Neutral with a $22 price target, citing accelerating growth and strong momentum in Brazil and Mexico. [10]
- Benzinga’s analyst compilation shows UBS maintained a Neutral rating on Dec. 4, 2025 while raising its price target to $18.40 (from $16). [11]
- Benzinga also lists a broader consensus price target of $15.51 (based on 15 analysts), with a high of $19 and a low far below (from older coverage). [12]
How to read that mix: even with upgrades and higher targets from some firms, the “consensus” snapshot suggests the Street is not uniformly chasing NU higher after the stock’s strong 2025 performance.
NU stock technical check: trend support vs. nearby resistance levels
With NU closing around $16.90, traders and swing investors often watch two simple reference points:
- Recent support zone: the mid‑$16s (this week’s trading included lows around $16.60) [13]
- Nearby resistance: the $17.8 area, which multiple quote sources list as the 52‑week high (~$17.84) [14]
From a trend perspective, Barchart’s technical summary shows NU trading well above longer moving-average baselines, with the 200‑day trend up strongly and year-to-date performance still elevated. [15]
Week ahead: what could move NU stock next week
Here are the main catalysts for Dec. 15–19, 2025 that could matter for Nu Holdings shares — either directly (via lending/funding economics) or indirectly (via risk appetite for emerging-market fintech):
1) Brazil: post-Copom digestion and inflation/interest-rate expectations
Brazil’s central bank held the Selic rate at 15% on Dec. 10 and kept a hawkish tone, offering no hint of imminent cuts. [16]
For Nu, “higher for longer” domestic rates can influence:
- Net interest margin dynamics
- Consumer credit demand
- Credit losses and underwriting tightness
2) Mexico: Banxico decision on Dec. 18 (big macro input for Nu’s fastest-growing market)
A Reuters poll published Dec. 12 said economists expect Banxico to cut rates on Dec. 18 by 25 bps to 7.00%. [17]
Lower rates can be supportive for funding conditions and consumer credit affordability — but the market will focus on guidance (pace of cuts, inflation risks), not just the headline move.
3) Colombia: interest-rate decision on Dec. 19
Economic-calendar data points to a Colombian interest-rate decision on Dec. 19. [18]
Nu’s Colombia business is smaller than Brazil’s, but it’s growing quickly — and rate policy matters for credit expansion and loss rates.
4) Brazil licensing/M&A headlines
If the market is going to re-rate NU in the near term, the most likely trigger is new clarity on how Nu plans to secure the Brazil banking license (organic path vs. acquisition). The Bloomberg/TheFly report has already put that theme in play. [19]
5) U.S. rates and liquidity: risk appetite backdrop for EM fintech
The Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10 statement showed a 25 bp cut to a 3.5%–3.75% policy range and noted purchases of shorter-term Treasuries “as needed” to maintain ample reserves. [20]
That matters because shifts in U.S. yields and liquidity conditions can spill over into EM currencies and growth-stock multiples — both relevant for a high-growth LatAm fintech like Nu.
The bottom line for NU stock into next week
NU stock enters the week ahead with a constructive near-term setup: steady price action after a volatile early-December move, a clear regulatory roadmap toward a Brazil banking license, and a fresh proof point that international growth (Colombia) is scaling. [21]
But the same headlines also raise the key debate investors will be watching: whether licensing becomes a clean compliance milestone (as management frames it) or a headline-heavy process involving M&A, approvals, and shifting capital perceptions. [22]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.tipranks.com, 7. international.nubank.com.br, 8. international.nubank.com.br, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.benzinga.com, 12. www.benzinga.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. stooq.com, 15. www.barchart.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.federalreserve.gov, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.sec.gov
