NEW YORK, August 4, 2026, 18:06 EDT
- U.S. cash markets have ended trading. Nvidia ended the session up 2.6% at $211.94.
- FactSet Research Systems NYSE:FDS reports an average analyst price target of $314.29. Morningstar NASDAQ:MORN assigns a valuation of $280 per share.
- Nvidia is scheduled to announce its fiscal second-quarter results on August 26. Analysts currently predict earnings per share at $2.08.
Nvidia’s stock climbed on Tuesday, yet a significant figure remains over the market. The consensus target from Wall Street points to an additional $2.50 trillion in market capitalization.
Based on Tuesday’s $5.17 trillion valuation, the target equates to approximately $7.67 trillion. This figure assumes the share count stays largely unchanged. The rise needed is equivalent to around 2.9 times Advanced Micro Devices’ NASDAQ:AMD current market capitalisation.
This is the core concern for investors. A modest earnings multiple does not alleviate the challenge of scale.
The table reflects Tuesday’s closing figures alongside valuation measures from Morningstar and FactSet. Implied capitalizations are based on Nvidia’s present market capitalization and an unchanged number of shares.
| Valuation reference | Per share | Upside from close | Implied equity value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday closing price | $211.94 | — | $5.17 trillion |
| Morningstar estimated fair value | $280.00 | 32.1% | $6.83 trillion |
| FactSet median price target | $300.00 | 41.5% | $7.32 trillion |
| FactSet average price target | $314.29 | 48.3% | $7.67 trillion |
Estimate shown for illustration purposes, based on an unchanged share count.
Morningstar values Nvidia at $280 per share, suggesting a multiple of around 30 times expected adjusted earnings for fiscal 2027, dropping to 20 times anticipated profit for fiscal 2028. The research provider continues to rate Nvidia’s uncertainty as very high.
Barron’s found a comparable result by looking at relative multiples, stating Nvidia trades at 18.9 times forward earnings—lower than the overall market as well as major semiconductor rivals.
| Company or benchmark | Forward P/E |
|---|---|
| Nvidia | 18.9x |
| S&P 500 | 20.0x |
| Advanced Micro Devices | 43.0x |
| Intel NASDAQ:INTC | 50.4x |
Simon Leopold, an analyst at Raymond James Financial NYSE:RJF, stated that investors were attracted to “momentum and scarcity trades.” He reiterated a Strong Buy rating. Leopold noted that Nvidia’s efficiency continues to reduce token-production expenses for its customers. Barron’s
Analysts’ earnings projections are up as well, though the gains are still less than the average upside predicted by target prices. FactSet data show the consensus for fiscal 2027 has climbed 8.7% over the past three months.
| Consensus estimate | Current | Three months ago | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2027 EPS | $2.08 | $1.93 | +7.8% |
| Q3 FY2027 EPS | $2.36 | $2.16 | +9.3% |
| FY2027 EPS | $9.00 | $8.28 | +8.7% |
| FY2028 EPS | $12.78 | $11.13 | +14.8% |
The comparison does not indicate that analyst targets are too high. Instead, it highlights that the optimistic scenario requires more than standard estimate increases.
The company’s operating performance continues to stand out. Revenue for the first quarter increased 85% compared with a year earlier. Data-center revenues jumped 92%, and adjusted gross margin climbed to 75%.
| Latest company measure | Reported figure | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 revenue | $81.6 billion | up 85% from a year ago |
| Data-center revenue | $75.2 billion | up 92% year over year |
| Adjusted gross margin | 75.0% | increase of 14.2 percentage points |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $1.87 | tops $1.75 consensus |
| Q2 revenue guidance | $91.0 billion | give or take 2% |
CEO Jensen Huang stated that the buildout of AI factories is “accelerating at extraordinary speed.” Nvidia’s outlook for second-quarter data-center compute revenue does not include figures from China. NVIDIA Investor Relations
Analyst backing stays strong. A TipRanks overview recorded 36 Buy ratings out of 37 analysts. FactSet numbers showed 54 Buy, seven Overweight, two Hold, and one Sell recommendations.
A related report referenced a preliminary options-implied move of about 6% around earnings. Shares are up 11.5% from their close on July 29. The company’s next earnings release is set for August 26.
Risks: The company continues to face elevated customer concentration. Hyperscalers are designing proprietary silicon, and sales to China are limited by export controls. Morningstar cites spending reductions and increased competition as significant sources of uncertainty.
The earnings test is not limited to achieving another quarterly beat. Nvidia is also under pressure to maintain its profit growth and justify a possible valuation above $7 trillion.
