Published: December 10, 2025
Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is back at the center of the geopolitical and AI-investing story today, as Washington loosens some export restrictions to China, Beijing weighs its response, and Wall Street doubles down on bullish forecasts for 2026.
Below is a detailed, news-style rundown of what changed on December 10, 2025, how it affects Nvidia’s earnings outlook, and what analysts now expect for the stock.
1. Nvidia stock on December 10, 2025: price and market context
As of midday trading on December 10, 2025, Nvidia shares are changing hands at around $185 (about $184.97), down fractionally on the day but still dramatically higher than a year ago. [1]
Several recent roundups note that Nvidia is up roughly mid‑30% to nearly 40% year-to-date in 2025, despite a sharp pullback earlier in the year after a large one-time charge tied to China export restrictions. [2]
Broadly, U.S. equities are pausing after a powerful AI-led rally, with investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates. A Reuters market wrap highlights that the S&P 500 finished slightly lower on Tuesday as traders priced in a likely rate cut but worried about a more hawkish tone, while the Nasdaq eked out a gain — with Nvidia featuring in headlines thanks to its renewed China access. [3]
So against a cautious but still risk‑on macro backdrop, Nvidia is digesting a dense cluster of policy decisions, regulatory moves, and analyst upgrades that could shape the stock into 2026.
2. Trump approves Nvidia’s H200 chip exports to China – but takes 25% of the revenue
The biggest single headline for Nvidia today is political.
What was announced?
The U.S. government under President Donald Trump has approved Nvidia to sell its H200 AI accelerator chips to selected customers in China, reversing earlier export restrictions that had effectively pushed Nvidia’s China data center revenue toward zero. [4]
However, there are strict conditions:
- Nvidia must share 25% of the revenue from H200 sales to China with the U.S. government — a sharp increase from the 15% revenue‑sharing deal that previously applied to sales of the weaker H20 chip. [5]
- The permission does not extend to Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell and upcoming Rubin chips, which remain restricted for national‑security reasons. [6]
Analysts and commentators have described the arrangement as an effective export tax on Nvidia’s China business, something legal observers note could raise constitutional questions about export duties — though for now, the market is treating it as a political compromise: partial access in exchange for a sizable skim off the top. [7]
Why it matters for Nvidia
China was once around a quarter of Nvidia’s revenue, and even after years of tightening curbs it remains one of the world’s biggest AI and GPU markets. [8]
However:
- Nvidia’s current financial forecasts do not assume significant China revenue, according to recent analysis, which means any sustained H200 shipments could represent upside rather than baked‑in expectations. [9]
- The 25% fee obviously compresses Nvidia’s margins on H200 sales to China compared with the rest of the world.
- The deal covers a “middle generation” chip: H200 is more powerful than the previously constrained H20, but still below the cutting‑edge Blackwell line that drives Nvidia’s core long‑term roadmap. [10]
In other words, the policy reopens a door to China, but only partially and at a price — good news for revenue optionality, but not a full restoration of Nvidia’s earlier dominance in the region.
3. ByteDance and Alibaba line up for H200 orders – if Beijing allows it
The political story quickly spilled into demand headlines.
A Reuters exclusive reports that ByteDance and Alibaba have approached Nvidia about buying the newly permitted H200 chips following Trump’s announcement. [11]
Key points from that report:
- ByteDance and Alibaba are “keen to place large orders” for H200 if Beijing gives them the green light.
- The companies are worried about supply, since Nvidia is producing only limited quantities of H200 while prioritizing its latest Blackwell and forthcoming Rubin accelerators.
- Before Trump’s decision, the most advanced chip that could legally be exported to China was the H20. The H200 is reported to be almost six times as powerful as H20, making it far more attractive for training large AI models.
- Chinese regulators have been discouraging purchases of Nvidia AI chips and may subject H200 orders to review, especially from government-funded data centers and sensitive industries.
For investors, the takeaway is nuanced:
- Demand from top Chinese tech firms looks very strong, even under political uncertainty.
- Actual volume shipped could be constrained by both Nvidia’s own production priorities and Beijing’s desire to promote domestic AI chips from companies like Huawei.
- That makes China feel more like a volatile call option on top of Nvidia’s already-booming ex‑China AI business, rather than a predictable growth pillar.
4. New location‑verification software aims to curb chip smuggling
In a separate but related development, Nvidia has built location‑verification software designed to help customers and regulators check where its AI chips are physically operating. [12]
According to reporting from Reuters and others:
- The feature uses confidential computing capabilities of Nvidia GPUs along with latency measurements to Nvidia‑run servers to estimate where a chip is located, integrated into a broader fleet‑monitoring and telemetry tool for data centers. [13]
- It is expected to debut on the new Blackwell chips, with Nvidia exploring ways to support Hopper and Ampere generations as well. [14]
- The move directly responds to U.S. government pressure for stronger safeguards against AI chip smuggling into restricted countries, after reports of attempts to funnel over $160 million worth of Nvidia hardware into China through grey markets. [15]
Chinese regulators, meanwhile, have questioned Nvidia about whether its GPUs could contain “backdoors” for U.S. surveillance, a claim Nvidia firmly denies. Experts quoted in coverage say that location tracking can be implemented without compromising chip security, but the optics in China remain sensitive. [16]
From an investor standpoint, the new software:
- Could reduce the risk of future criminal smuggling scandals and new U.S. crackdowns on Nvidia hardware.
- Might cool demand in certain jurisdictions that fear the geopolitical implications of hardware that can be geo‑verified.
- Reinforces Nvidia’s positioning as a company trying to stay ahead of regulation, not reacting to it after the fact.
5. Fundamentals: record earnings, “sold‑out” AI demand and $500B revenue visibility
Away from geopolitics, Nvidia’s underlying business momentum remains extraordinary.
Record Q3 FY 2026 results
On November 19, 2025, Nvidia reported record results for its fiscal third quarter (ended October 26, 2025): [17]
- Total revenue: $57.0 billion, up 22% sequentially and 62% year over year.
- Data center revenue: $51.2 billion, up 25% quarter over quarter and 66% year over year.
- Guidance for Q4 FY 2026: approx. $65 billion in revenue, plus or minus 2%, with gross margins of roughly 75%.
Analysts and tech press widely described the report as a crushing beat that helped quiet talk of an “AI bubble,” underscoring that demand for AI infrastructure remains outrunning supply rather than the other way around. [18]
Full‑year 2025: a historic step‑change
Looking at the previous fiscal year, Nvidia’s FY 2025 numbers (reported earlier in the year) show how rapidly the company has scaled:
- FY 2025 revenue: about $130.5 billion, up 114% vs FY 2024. [19]
Data center GPUs for AI did most of the heavy lifting, but gaming, professional visualization and automotive also saw strong growth.
“Sold‑out cloud” and AI chip market growth
One of the clearest lenses into the Nvidia demand story came in a recent feature on the AI GPU rental market. There, Nvidia CFO Colette Kress reiterated on the earnings call that “the clouds are sold out” and GPU output is fully utilized, highlighting a tight supply environment. [20]
Meanwhile, market researcher Omdia estimates that the AI computer chip market will reach $286 billion in 2026, up from $207 billion in 2025 and $123 billion in 2024, with Nvidia still “largely the only game in town” at the high end of AI accelerators. [21]
Blackwell, Rubin and half‑a‑trillion in revenue “visibility”
In both its own investor communications and independent analysis, Nvidia’s next‑generation GPU platforms — Blackwell and Rubin — are framed as the core of a multi‑year AI infrastructure cycle:
- Nvidia’s management has said it has “visibility to a half‑trillion dollars” in revenue tied to AI systems, particularly Blackwell and Rubin, through 2026. [22]
- Third‑party analysis suggests that Nvidia’s free cash flow could grow from around $80 billion to $110–$120 billion annually within two years, assuming AI data center demand remains on its current trajectory. [23]
These numbers are not guarantees, but they explain why many analysts are willing to assign premium valuation multiples to Nvidia: the company is currently the central toll‑booth on the world’s AI build‑out.
6. What Wall Street expects now: consensus ratings and price targets
Consensus: “Strong Buy” with 30–40% 12‑month upside
Across multiple tracking services, Nvidia still carries one of the strongest analyst consensuses in large‑cap tech:
- StockAnalysis: 39 covering analysts, “Strong Buy” rating, with an average 12‑month price target of $248.64 — implying roughly 34% upside from around $185. [24]
- Benzinga: 36 analysts, consensus price target $254.92, with a range from $165 on the low end to $352 on the high end. [25]
- MarketWatch (summary snippet): average recommendation “Buy” and an average target around $256.69 based on roughly 70 ratings. [26]
- HeyGotrade: compiles 41 Wall Street analysts and puts the average price target at about $258, with potential upside of roughly 39% over the next 12 months, specifically highlighting the impact of the new H200 export approval. [27]
Taken together, most major aggregators cluster Nvidia’s one‑year target between $248 and $258, or roughly 30–40% above current trading levels.
Who is most bullish?
Within that consensus, some well-known research houses are leaning especially positive:
- Morgan Stanley recently raised its Nvidia price target from $235 to $250, arguing that fears about Nvidia losing AI market share — especially in Asia — are overstated and that Nvidia remains the “AI hardware king.” [28]
- A number of firms, including Evercore ISI, Cantor Fitzgerald, and others, have set price targets in the $300+ range, with Evercore notably going as high as $352. [29]
Other commentaries — such as pieces from The Motley Fool, Zacks, and Yahoo Finance — argue that Nvidia’s valuation, while rich, is not extreme relative to its growth, and some explicitly model scenarios where Nvidia stock could reach $300 or more in 2026 if AI spending continues at current pace. [30]
Forecasts beyond 2026
More speculative long‑term projections paint an even more aggressive picture:
- One widely circulated analysis suggests Nvidia’s data center revenue could compound at roughly 36% annually and floats a provocative scenario where Nvidia could approach a $20 trillion market cap by 2030 if AI infrastructure spending far exceeds today’s expectations. [31]
- Multi‑decade modeling from brokerage research and trading platforms anticipates Nvidia’s revenue continuing to climb sharply between 2025 and 2030, backed by expansion into autonomous vehicles, edge AI, and other emerging markets. [32]
These out‑year forecasts are inherently uncertain, but they highlight how central Nvidia has become to long‑horizon AI investment theses.
7. How today’s news changes Nvidia’s investment story
Putting the December 10 headlines into context:
Positives for the bull case
- Partial reopening of China
- The H200 approval gives Nvidia a pathway back into China’s high‑end AI market without requiring a full rollback of U.S. export controls.
- Early interest from ByteDance, Alibaba and others shows there is real demand waiting on the other side of regulatory approvals. [33]
- Regulatory positioning
- Nvidia’s move to introduce location‑verification software demonstrates proactive engagement with U.S. policymakers’ concerns about chip smuggling and export compliance. [34]
- This could make it easier for the company to win future exemptions or tailored permissions, especially as Washington tries to balance national security with economic competitiveness.
- Fundamentals that still look “sold out”
- Record Q3 revenue, plus Q4 guidance for $65 billion in a single quarter, underline that AI infrastructure spending remains in hyper‑growth mode. [35]
- Industry estimates that the AI chip market will exceed $280 billion next year, with Nvidia in the pole position, support the view that today’s revenue is still early in the cycle. [36]
- Analyst support
- The clustering of 12‑month targets 30–40% above the current share price, with overwhelmingly “Buy” or “Strong Buy” ratings, provides a strong institutional endorsement of Nvidia’s trajectory.
Key risks and points of caution
- Export‑tax precedent and geopolitical risk
- A 25% revenue‑share to the U.S. government on H200 sales is a meaningful haircut to profitability and sets a precedent that could, in theory, be expanded or imitated for other hardware or markets. [37]
- China’s government still needs to sign off on broad usage of H200, and it has been actively steering state‑linked entities away from Nvidia chips in favor of domestic alternatives. [38]
- Regulatory optics of location tracking
- While location‑verification may appease U.S. lawmakers, it could spook foreign buyers who worry about surveillance or backdoors, even if experts say the technology can be deployed securely. [39]
- Competition and customer concentration
- Nvidia still dominates at the top end, but AMD, Intel, hyperscaler in‑house chips and Chinese vendors are all pushing hard to close the gap.
- Nvidia’s revenue is highly concentrated among a handful of mega‑cap cloud providers, whose capex cycles can be lumpy and sensitive to macro conditions — not least the Fed decisions investors are watching this week. [40]
- Valuation and expectations risk
- After more than doubling revenue in FY 2025 and maintaining >60% growth into FY 2026, Nvidia is priced for continued near‑flawless execution. Any disappointment — whether from China, capex moderation, or competition — could trigger sharp re‑rating of the shares. [41]
8. Bottom line: how investors may think about Nvidia after December 10
For long‑term, growth‑focused investors, today’s developments arguably reinforce the core bull case for Nvidia:
- The company remains at the center of the AI infrastructure boom, with sold‑out GPUs, record earnings, and roadmap visibility that few large‑caps can match.
- The U.S. government’s decision to allow H200 sales to China — even with a heavy revenue skim — shows that policymakers are not willing to completely cut Nvidia off from one of the world’s largest AI markets.
- Nvidia is trying to stay ahead of regulatory risk with tools like location‑verification software, which, if accepted by customers, could make export compliance less chaotic over time.
At the same time, the export‑tax structure, Chinese regulatory uncertainty, and elevated valuation mean that Nvidia is not a low‑risk story. Even many bullish analysts caution that investors need to be ready for volatility, policy surprises and periodic pullbacks along the way. [42]
For now, the consensus view from Wall Street is clear: Nvidia remains a top‑tier AI leader with strong buy‑rated long‑term prospects, and the December 10 news flow tilts more positive than negative — but it adds another layer of political complexity to an already high‑stakes investment.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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