Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is trading slightly higher in Wednesday’s pre-market session as investors digest a flood of AI and policy headlines — from President Donald Trump’s decision to let the company sell H200 chips into China, to new anti-smuggling technology and fresh long-term forecasts for the AI giant.
All price data in this article refers to trading around 7:00 a.m. ET on December 10, 2025, unless otherwise noted. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Nvidia stock pre-market on December 10, 2025
After slipping 0.31% on Tuesday to close at $184.97, Nvidia is showing a modest rebound in pre-market trading. [1]
- Pre-market price: Around $185.50, up roughly 0.3% from Tuesday’s close, based on real-time data from StockAnalysis. [2]
- Pre-market range: On one pre-market tracking platform, NVDA has traded between about $184.98 and $189.54, with a last trade near $185.38. [3]
- Pre-market volume: An estimated 9.3 million shares have already changed hands, above Nvidia’s recent 30‑day average pre-market volume of about 7.7 million shares, underscoring intense early interest. [4]
Some outlets note that Nvidia was up closer to 0.8% earlier this morning before giving back part of those gains, highlighting how volatile pre-market trading has been ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision later today. [5]
Even with today’s bounce, Nvidia trades roughly 12–13% below its 52‑week high near $212, and about 46x trailing earnings and 27x forward earnings, according to StockAnalysis — valuations that still bake in an aggressive AI-growth narrative. [6]
Trump’s H200 deal: the biggest catalyst behind today’s move
The dominant driver of Nvidia’s stock story this week is President Donald Trump’s decision to allow exports of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to China, in exchange for a 25% cut of revenue on those sales. [7]
Key details from official and media reports:
- The deal permits exports of H200 processors, Nvidia’s second-most-powerful AI chips, while keeping the newer Blackwell family off-limits to China. [8]
- The U.S. government will effectively collect a 25% fee on H200 sales into China — up from a 15% share previously floated in August. [9]
- Nvidia’s shares popped about 2% in after-hours trading on Monday, on top of a roughly 3% gain during the regular session, immediately after the announcement. [10]
- Trump framed the arrangement as a compromise meant to protect national security while preserving U.S. leadership in AI, but it has drawn sharp criticism from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers worried about boosting China’s military capabilities. [11]
A strongly worded analysis from The Motley Fool (via Nasdaq) characterizes the 25% cut as a de facto export tax on Nvidia’s GPUs, noting that export taxes are normally prohibited by the U.S. Constitution and warning that the precedent could be extended or increased in future. [12]
At the same time, analysts point out the revenue upside: one Barron’s piece cites UBS estimates that H200 shipments into China could add $5–$10 billion in quarterly sales if the program scales. [13] That helps explain why NVDA has stayed relatively resilient despite November’s pullback.
China’s reaction: demand is real, but regulators hold the keys
China’s response is still evolving — and could determine how much Nvidia actually benefits from the H200 decision.
Massive potential demand from Chinese tech giants
A new Reuters exclusive reports that ByteDance and Alibaba have already approached Nvidia about buying H200 chips, eager to place large orders once Beijing gives the go‑ahead. [14]
- The companies see H200 as significantly more powerful than the H20 chips that were previously allowed for sale in China — roughly six times more powerful, according to Reuters’ summary of technical comparisons. [15]
- Supply is expected to be tight: sources told Reuters that only limited quantities of H200 are currently in production, because Nvidia has prioritized its cutting-edge Blackwell and upcoming Rubin platforms. [16]
A separate report, relayed by Stocktwits from The Information, says Chinese regulators called an emergency meetingwith Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent and other internet giants, asking them to detail how many H200 chips they would want to buy before deciding whether to allow such purchases. [17]
H200s are already in China via grey channels
Another Reuters investigation shows that Chinese universities, research institutes and military-linked entities are already using H200 GPUs, despite previous U.S. export rules: [18]
- Elite institutions like Tsinghua University, Shanghai AI Lab and others have documented the use of H200 chips for cutting-edge AI research, including image forgery detection. [19]
- Defence-affiliated entities, including a Chinese military medical university, have sought H200-based systems for large language model research and biosurveillance projects. [20]
- Several large AI data center projects in regions such as Jiangsu and Xinjiang have published tenders envisioning thousands of H200 GPUs in massive compute clusters. [21]
In other words, today’s decision would formalize and scale demand that already exists on the grey market — but only ifBeijing allows its companies and state-backed institutions to proceed.
Political tug-of-war on both sides
Chinese authorities have previously told some government-funded data centers and tech firms not to buy downgraded Nvidia chips like the H20, as part of a push for self-sufficiency and domestic alternatives from Huawei and others. [22]
Analysts quoted by Reuters expect Chinese regulators to:
- Carefully vet H200 purchase requests
- Require detailed use cases
- Balance access to top-tier foreign hardware against long-term goals for home-grown AI chips [23]
That balancing act is one reason some investors are cautious: H200 could unlock a powerful new growth leg for Nvidia in China, but policy risk and approval bottlenecks remain high.
New anti-smuggling technology: Nvidia plays defense on regulations
Adding another layer to the story, Reuters reports that Nvidia has developed location-verification software for its GPUs designed to help authorities track where chips are actually used and combat smuggling into restricted markets. [24]
Highlights from the report:
- The software uses the confidential computing capabilities built into Nvidia’s graphics processors and a telemetry agent to report on fleet health and approximate chip location to Nvidia-run servers. [25]
- The feature is initially targeted at the new Blackwell chips, with Nvidia exploring options for earlier Hopper and Ampere-based lines. [26]
- The move responds to calls from the White House and U.S. lawmakers to prevent AI accelerators from being smuggled to countries like China in violation of export rules, amid criminal cases involving more than $160 million worth of allegedly smuggled chips. [27]
This could be a medium-term positive for Nvidia: robust tracking may reassure U.S. regulators and support continued export approvals, including for the H200 deal.
But it also has a geopolitical downside. China’s top cybersecurity regulator has reportedly questioned Nvidia about whether such capabilities could act as a “backdoor,” allowing U.S. authorities to snoop on Chinese systems. [28] That tension underscores how fragile the current window for H200 sales might be.
How Wall Street and retail traders see Nvidia today
Analyst ratings remain overwhelmingly bullish
Despite last month’s drawdown, the Street remains broadly positive on Nvidia:
- StockAnalysis compiles views from 39 analysts and shows an average rating of “Strong Buy” with a 12‑month price target of about $248.64, implying roughly 34% upside from current levels. [29]
- A separate tally from MarketWatch lists an average target of $256.69 across roughly 70 analysts, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” [30]
A detailed forecast from 24/7 Wall St. goes further out:
- It notes that Wall Street’s median one‑year target is about $257.66, nearly 39% above today’s price.
- The outlet’s own model projects a 2025 target near $233 (about 26% upside), and a 2030 base-case target around $318, implying more than 70% upside if earnings grow to roughly $7.24 per share. [31]
24/7 Wall St. cites three main long-term drivers:
- Dominance in GPUs for AI workloads
- Concentrated demand from mega-cap “Magnificent Seven” clients like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft
- A global AI market projected to grow at about 36% compound annual rates through 2030 [32]
These forecasts assume Nvidia can maintain high market share, expand its software and services business, and keep gross margins elevated — all factors investors are scrutinizing closely.
November slump shows growing skepticism about AI
Not everyone is comfortable with Nvidia’s valuation, however.
A recent piece from Nasdaq/Motley Fool notes that NVDA fell 12.6% in November, despite posting yet another blowout quarter on November 19. The article attributes the pullback to: [33]
- Rising fears of an “AI bubble”, with Nvidia at the center
- Concerns that big players like Google can train cutting-edge models (e.g., Gemini 3) on their own TPUs instead of Nvidia GPUs
- Questions about how long AI spending can grow at current levels without clearer, broad-based productivity gains in the real economy
The author points out that Nvidia’s third-quarter results showed no slowdown in demand, with revenue and profit growth remaining extremely strong, but warns that the stock’s valuation is entirely built on the assumption that this trajectory continues for years. [34]
That skepticism is also visible in the short term: Stocktwits data shows retail sentiment skewing “bearish” on Nvidia over the past day, even as the stock traded higher in pre-market. [35]
Nvidia’s fundamentals: still an AI earnings machine
Underneath the policy headlines, Nvidia’s financial engine remains formidable.
- For fiscal 2024, Nvidia generated roughly $130.5 billion in revenue, up 114% year over year, and about $72.9 billion in earnings, up 145%. [36]
- Its market capitalization sits around $4.5 trillion, making it one of the world’s most valuable companies. [37]
Most of that growth is driven by the Data Center and AI infrastructure business, where Nvidia’s GPUs, networking products and CUDA software stack have become the default choice for training and running large AI models across cloud hyperscalers and enterprise customers. [38]
The H200–China story is therefore not a one-off curiosity. It’s about whether Nvidia can:
- Re‑open a massive, previously high-margin market that had effectively dropped to zero share due to export bans [39]
- Do so without triggering a new wave of restrictions from Washington or retaliation from Beijing
- Manage the profit impact of handing 25% of China-related H200 revenue to the U.S. government
If it threads that needle, the China channel could add meaningful incremental growth on top of already strong demand elsewhere.
What to watch as regular trading opens
As U.S. markets head toward the opening bell, here are the key storylines that could move Nvidia stock beyond the initial pre-market wiggle:
- Fed rate decision and guidance
A widely anticipated rate cut is expected later today, but investors will focus on the Fed’s tone and projections. A more hawkish-than-expected message could pressure richly valued growth names like Nvidia, even if company-specific news is positive. [40] - Further details on H200 export implementation
- Final rules from the U.S. Commerce Department on vetting “approved customers” in China
- Clarity on how the 25% fee is collected and whether similar structures might apply to other chips or companies [41]
- Signals from Beijing
Investors will watch for any official Chinese commentary confirming (or discouraging) H200 purchases, as well as leaks from ongoing discussions with Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent. [42] - Sector sympathy moves
Rival chipmakers like AMD and Intel, as well as Chinese chip players like Huawei’s partners and Cambricon, could move in response to evolving perceptions of Nvidia’s China edge. [43] - Volatility in short-term sentiment
Pre-market quotes have already swung between modest gains and small losses this morning. Expect elevated volatility in both stock and options as traders try to handicap the combined impact of Fed policy, export politics and AI demand.
Bottom line
Nvidia’s pre-market action on December 10, 2025 — a small bounce on heavy volume around the $185 level — looks almost calm compared with the crosscurrents swirling around the company.
On one side, it has:
- A reopened path into the world’s second-largest AI market
- Persistent “Strong Buy” ratings and double-digit upside targets from Wall Street
- Extraordinary revenue and earnings growth that continues to defy the usual limits on hardware companies
On the other, it faces:
- A controversial 25% revenue share with the U.S. government on H200 sales to China
- Uncertain approval from Chinese regulators, who are also nurturing local chip champions
- Growing questions about AI valuations, competition from in‑house chips at big tech companies, and the sustainability of the current AI spending boom
For now, Nvidia remains the defining bellwether of the AI trade — and today’s pre-market session is just a preview of the tug‑of‑war that’s likely to play out as the market digests both the opportunities and risks embedded in the new H200 export deal.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. marketchameleon.com, 4. marketchameleon.com, 5. stocktwits.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. stocktwits.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. www.marketwatch.com, 31. 247wallst.com, 32. 247wallst.com, 33. www.nasdaq.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. stocktwits.com, 36. stockanalysis.com, 37. stockanalysis.com, 38. stockanalysis.com, 39. www.nasdaq.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.reuters.com
