New York, Jan 12, 2026, 09:34 EST — Regular session
- Shares of Nvidia slipped in early trading, mirroring a drop in U.S. futures as chip investors awaited crucial data and upcoming supplier earnings.
- All eyes turn to Taiwan Semiconductor’s earnings later this week for clues on AI server demand.
- China’s position on Nvidia’s H200 shipments continues to sway near-term order flow.
Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares dipped slightly in early Monday trading, falling around 0.1% to $184.86. The drop followed a slip in U.S. futures as investors remained wary of big-cap growth stocks.
Timing is critical. This week packs a heavy slate of macro data and earnings reports, and traders have quickly sold off AI-related gains whenever bond yields spike or policy risks emerge. Wall Street futures dipped earlier after the White House renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve, raising fresh doubts about the Fed’s independence—a concern that often weighs on rate-sensitive tech stocks. 1
Tuesday brings the U.S. consumer price index, a key report that could shift interest rate forecasts and, in turn, influence how investors price fast-growing chipmakers. 2
For Nvidia, a second near-term indicator lies overseas. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co is set to report a 27% rise in fourth-quarter net profit and will provide guidance on Thursday. Investors and analysts are watching closely, viewing TSMC’s outlook as a barometer for AI server and accelerator spending. Galen Zeng, senior research manager at IDC, told Reuters that demand for AI server accelerators is a key growth driver. Meanwhile, Shay Boloor of Futurum Equities noted TSMC continues to expand its share “at the leading edge.” 3
China remains a major wildcard. Reuters reported last week that Nvidia now demands full upfront payment for H200 chips sold in China, tightening terms amid unclear approval processes. According to the report, Chinese tech firms have placed orders totaling over 2 million H200 chips, each priced around $27,000. Beijing, however, has instructed some companies to halt their orders while regulators assess conditions tied to domestic chip procurement. 4
Nvidia emerged from CES last week with a bigger push into autos and robotics, unveiling a next-gen platform linked to a robotaxi alliance with Lucid, Nuro, and Uber. Mercedes-Benz also revealed plans to roll out an advanced driver-assistance system in the U.S. later this year, powered by Nvidia technology. These moves highlight Nvidia’s attempt to expand beyond data centers, though its stock remains driven mainly by the AI spending cycle and developments in China. 5
Traders are eyeing the countdown to Nvidia’s upcoming earnings. The chipmaker plans to release its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results on Feb. 25, per its investor events calendar. 6
Still, what happens in the short term might trump any single product update. If inflation stays high and yields climb, the market usually shies away from pricey megacaps, even when AI hardware demand remains strong.
There’s a straightforward risk too: if China clamps down more on approvals, or buyers hold off as terms change and domestic-purchase requirements pile up, the figures could slip even with solid global demand. And should TSMC’s outlook suggest a slower build in advanced packaging or cutting-edge capacity, chip stocks might adjust sharply.
Investors are zeroing in on two key events this week: TSMC’s Thursday guidance, which could confirm if the AI buildout keeps picking up speed, and Tuesday’s CPI data, which might shift rates enough to impact risk appetite.
