London, Jan 31, 2026, 08:14 GMT — Market closed
- BP closed Friday at 463.8 pence, rising 0.25%, following an announcement of additional buyback activity
- Oil’s carrying most of the weight: Brent hovers near $70, though a Reuters poll predicts prices will drop closer to $60 by 2026
- BP’s quarterly results on Feb. 10 will be the next key catalyst, with investors watching closely for impairments and trading updates
BP shares closed slightly up on Friday, supported by ongoing share buybacks. Investors balanced gains in crude prices with a more cautious forecast for the year.
The stock ended at 463.8 pence, gaining 1.15 pence, after fluctuating between 455.2 and 464.6 pence during the session. Trading volume hit roughly 33.7 million shares, consistent with recent activity.
Why it matters now: BP steps into results week with shares caught between two conflicting forces — crude prices and cash returns. Oil prices have climbed back toward $70 a barrel, yet a Reuters poll of economists and analysts forecasts Brent to average nearer $62 this year, citing oversupply concerns.
That puts buybacks and balance-sheet discipline under greater scrutiny. Investors expect payouts but also demand clarity on their durability if oil prices fall and trading gets choppy.
On Friday, BP announced it purchased 2,825,577 ordinary shares under its ongoing buyback programme. The volume-weighted average price was roughly 460.3 pence. The company plans to move these shares into treasury.
The buyback notice was standard, yet it highlights BP’s relentless drive to return capital amid volatile commodity swings.
Oil prices jumped Thursday, with Brent crude closing at $70.71 a barrel amid fears the U.S. might strike Iran. PVM analyst John Evans highlighted the main risk: “The immediate concern… is… it closes the Strait of Hormuz,” a vital shipping lane. Reuters
Not everyone is convinced geopolitics will dominate the year. “Geopolitics brings lots of noise… The oil market appears to be in a lasting surplus,” Norbert Ruecker, head of economics & next generation research at Julius Baer, told Reuters. Reuters
BP shares will face their first real challenge Monday morning, as traders gauge if last week’s crude premium holds up when London markets reopen.
One risk is that oil prices slip back fast, thrusting BP once again into familiar territory: balancing shareholder returns against spending needs and volatile trading outcomes.
BP has cautioned investors about significant headline charges in its fourth quarter. The company recently signaled $4 billion to $5 billion in impairments, largely linked to its low-carbon ventures, and noted that softer oil trading would drag on earnings for the period.
Up next: BP’s Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings land on Feb. 10. Investors will zero in on any updates about impairments, cash flow, and the company’s outlook on buybacks through 2026.
