Nvidia stock (ticker: NVDA) is trading around the $181–182 level on Wednesday, December 3, 2025, edging higher after a volatile few weeks that saw a double‑digit November pullback but left the shares still up roughly mid‑30% for the year. [1]
With a market capitalization of about $4.4 trillion, trailing 12‑month revenue near $187 billion, net income around $99 billion, and a trailing P/E near 45, Nvidia remains the financial powerhouse at the heart of the AI infrastructure boom. [2]
At the same time, fresh headlines about Alphabet’s in‑house AI chips, a $2 billion Nvidia investment in Synopsys, and an unfinalized $100 billion OpenAI deal are reshaping the near‑term narrative around the stock. [3]
Below is a deep dive into what’s moving Nvidia stock today, how Wall Street sees NVDA’s future, and the key risks and catalysts investors are watching as of December 3, 2025.
1. Nvidia Stock Price and Valuation on December 3, 2025
As of early afternoon U.S. trading on December 3, 2025, NVDA is around $181.5 per share, up less than 1% on the day. Intraday trading has seen the stock fluctuate between roughly $180 and $184, with recent sessions characterized by high volumes and quick reactions to AI and macro headlines. [4]
Key snapshot metrics:
- Price: ~$181.5
- Market cap: ~$4.41 trillion
- 52‑week range: ~$86.6 – $212.2
- Trailing P/E: ~44.9
- Forward P/E: ~26
- TTM revenue: ~$187.1 billion
- TTM net income: ~$99.2 billion
- Dividend yield: ~0.02% (annual dividend about $0.04; next ex‑dividend date December 4, 2025) [5]
Despite a roughly 15% drop in November on valuation worries, Nvidia remains up about 37% year‑to‑date, according to Musk-focused coverage that tracked the pullback and rebound in the context of broader AI enthusiasm. [6]
In other words, Nvidia is no longer the parabolic rocket it was in 2023–2024, but at current levels it is still priced as a dominant growth franchise rather than a mature value stock.
2. The Very Latest News Driving Nvidia Stock
2.1 OpenAI Megadeal: “Not Finalized” and Not in the $500 Billion Bookings
One of the most important updates this week came from Nvidia’s CFO Colette Kress at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference.
She clarified that the widely discussed up to $100 billion deal with OpenAI has not yet been finalized, even though Nvidia and OpenAI continue to collaborate closely. [7]
Crucially, Kress also said:
- Nvidia’s much‑cited $500 billion in bookings for its Blackwell and Vera Rubin GPUs does not include the potential OpenAI agreement.
- Those bookings also exclude some newer deals with players like Anthropic and other partners, implying Nvidia’s long‑term order book could grow further if these negotiations close. [8]
The message:
Even without an inked OpenAI megadeal, Nvidia is already operating from an enormous demand base. The OpenAI contract would be additive rather than foundational to the bullish thesis.
2.2 $2 Billion Synopsys Stake: GPU + EDA = Tighter Ecosystem
On December 1, Nvidia and Synopsys announced an expanded strategic partnership that instantly became one of the week’s biggest NVDA headlines. [9]
Key points:
- Nvidia is investing $2 billion in Synopsys common stock via a private placement.
- The two companies will co‑develop GPU‑accelerated engineering and design tools, aiming to “revolutionize design and engineering” across industries such as semiconductors, automotive, and advanced manufacturing. [10]
Investors are reading this as:
- A way for Nvidia to lock in deeper influence over chip design flows, making it even harder for competitors to displace it in the AI hardware stack.
- A smart redeployment of Nvidia’s massive cash hoard into strategic equity partnerships that pull demand toward its own compute platforms.
Market commentary notes that NVDA shares climbed about 3% on Tuesday as traders digested the Synopsys move as a positive catalyst for Nvidia’s long‑term GPU roadmap. [11]
2.3 Alphabet’s AI Chip Push: A Real Competitive Threat
The other side of Nvidia’s story this week is competition from cloud giants—especially Alphabet/Google.
Several recent reports describe:
- Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), long used internally, are now being pitched to external hyperscalers.
- Google is reportedly in talks to sell TPUs to Meta Platforms and possibly other cloud customers, a move that could threaten as much as 10% of Nvidia’s annual revenue, according to analysis cited by Nasdaq’s summary of a Motley Fool piece. [12]
- Meta’s planned $100 billion AI capex in 2026, much of it for inferencing chips, could materially boost Google’s chip business if a deal closes. [13]
Economic Times coverage framed the potential Google–Meta chip partnership as a “Godzilla vs. Kong” moment for the AI industry, underlining how serious the market now takes custom chips as an alternative to Nvidia GPUs. [14]
The direct impact on Nvidia so far:
- NVDA fell 3–4% intraday when the initial report broke on November 25. [15]
- The news has intensified concerns that Nvidia’s fat margins and dominant share will attract sustained margin‑eroding competition from in‑house silicon at Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. [16]
Still, some analysts argue that Nvidia retains key advantages—especially its software ecosystem, CUDA tooling, and broad developer base—that make it more than “just” a chip vendor, even in the face of hyperscaler competition. [17]
2.4 Elon Musk Names Nvidia a Top AI Investment Pick
Adding a different tone to the debate, Elon Musk—hardly shy about AI—used a November 30 podcast appearance to name Google and Nvidia as his two top AI investment picks. [18]
According to CoinCentral’s recap:
- Musk called Nvidia’s AI chip dominance “obvious” as a driver of future value.
- He noted NVDA is still up about 37% in 2025 despite a 15% November drop, while its forward P/E has compressed to the low‑20s. [19]
While Musk’s comments don’t change Nvidia’s fundamentals, they reinforce a perception among many investors that Nvidia and Alphabet are the core “picks and shovels” of the AI revolution.
3. Earnings and Fundamentals: The AI Money Machine
3.1 Record Q3 FY2026: $57 Billion in Revenue, AI Demand Still Accelerating
On November 19, 2025, Nvidia reported record Q3 FY2026 revenue of $57.0 billion, up 22% quarter‑over‑quarterand 62% year‑over‑year. [20]
Highlights from the quarter:
- Data center revenue: $51.2 billion, up 25% Q/Q and 66% Y/Y.
- Gross margins: Around 73–74%, among the highest in large‑cap tech.
- EPS: GAAP and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $1.30, up about 67% from a year ago. [21]
CEO Jensen Huang described Blackwell GPU demand as effectively sold out, and characterized AI as being in a “virtuous cycle”—where better models spur more compute spending, which then enables better models. [22]
Third‑quarter cash‑return metrics were also striking:
- Nvidia returned $37 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in the first nine months of FY2026, with $62.2 billion still authorized for repurchases. [23]
3.2 Q2 FY2026 and the H20 Charge: China Export Controls Bite, Then Fade
The previous quarter (Q2 FY2026), reported on August 27, 2025, showed:
- Revenue of $46.7 billion, up 6% Q/Q and 56% Y/Y.
- Data center revenue of $41.1 billion, up 5% Q/Q and 56% Y/Y.
- Blackwell data center revenue grew 17% sequentially as shipments ramped. [24]
Nvidia also disclosed:
- No H20 AI chip sales to China‑based customers in Q2, reflecting U.S. export controls.
- A $5.5 billion write‑down tied to H20 inventory and export restrictions earlier in 2025, partially offset by a $180 million release as some chips were resold outside China. [25]
Despite these headwinds, Nvidia has continued to grow aggressively by focusing on U.S. and allied markets and by positioning Blackwell as the global default for large‑scale AI deployments.
3.3 Customer Concentration: Four Giants Drive a Big Chunk of Sales
A 24/7 Wall St. analysis of Nvidia’s recent results highlights that roughly 40–60% of revenue is coming from a handful of hyperscale customers—primarily Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—who are racing to build AI supercomputers. [26]
This concentration has two implications:
- It underscores Nvidia’s centrality to AI capex at Big Tech.
- It creates risk: if those companies pivot more quickly toward their own chips, Nvidia’s growth and pricing power could be hit.
4. Nvidia Stock Forecast: What Wall Street and Models Say
4.1 Street Price Targets: Strong Buy with Upside in the High 30s to Low 40s
Across multiple sources, Nvidia currently carries a “Strong Buy” consensus rating.
- StockAnalysis aggregates 39 analysts covering NVDA with an average 12‑month price target of about $248.64, implying roughly 37% upside from current levels. [27]
- The target range runs from $100 on the low end to $352 at the high end, indicating a wide dispersion based on different views of AI demand and competition. [28]
- 24/7 Wall St. cites a median one‑year target around $257–258, implying ~43% potential upside, with the vast majority of covering analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy and only a token number of Hold/Sell ratings. [29]
- MarketBeat notes that major firms like JPMorgan, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Barclays have all raised their price targets into the $240–$275 range following the blowout Q3 report. [30]
Taken together, mainstream Wall Street still sees significant upside over the next year, even after Nvidia’s multiyear run.
4.2 Longer‑Term Forecasts to 2030: Algorithms See Big Numbers, With Big Caveats
Benzinga’s recent deep‑dive combines:
- Analyst sentiment,
- Valuation metrics, and
- Algorithmic forecasts from data provider CoinCodex. [31]
Key takeaways:
- Their average 12‑month target (across analysts) sits around the mid‑$250s, similar to the other sources. [32]
- Algorithmic models project modest near‑term gains (2025–2026 averages not far from today’s price) but substantial potential appreciation by 2030, with average scenario prices in the high‑$700s, and optimistic cases above $800–$900. [33]
These models are mechanical extrapolations based on historical volatility and trend, not guarantees. Still, they illustrate how much long‑term growth the market is willing to imagine for Nvidia if:
- AI workloads continue to scale, and
- Nvidia maintains leadership in high‑end accelerators.
5. The Bull Case vs. Bear Case for Nvidia Stock Right Now
5.1 Bull Case: Dominant AI Platform with Massive Cash Flow
1. AI Data Center Monopoly‑Like Position
Nvidia still owns the lion’s share of the AI data‑center accelerator market, with data center revenue above $50 billion per quarter and growing more than 60% year‑over‑year. [34]
2. Off‑the‑Charts Profitability
Gross margins in the low‑to‑mid‑70% range, net margins above 50%, and massive free cash flow give Nvidia extraordinary financial firepower—evident in tens of billions of dollars in buybacks and the ability to make strategic $2 billion equity investments like the Synopsys deal. [35]
3. Software + Ecosystem Moat
CUDA, cuDNN, and Nvidia’s proprietary libraries and SDKs make its GPUs sticky. Cloud providers and enterprises have built their AI stacks around Nvidia’s tools, making switching to alternative hardware much harder than simply swapping out a chip. [36]
4. Product Roadmap: Blackwell Today, Rubin Tomorrow
Press releases and analyst commentary highlight that Blackwell accelerators are still ramping and that Nvidia is already talking about the Rubin (R100) generation, reinforcing the sense that Nvidia intends to keep leapfrogging competitorson performance. [37]
5. Strategic Partnerships and Equity Stakes
From Synopsys to various AI startups and cloud security firms, Nvidia is seeding its ecosystem with capital, often in exchange for deeper integration with its compute stack. This both widens its moat and gives it optionality if any of these bets become big winners. [38]
6. Macro Tailwind: AI Super‑Cycle
Research cited by 24/7 Wall St. and TS2 suggests the AI market could grow at a mid‑30s% CAGR into 2030, with Nvidia targeting $170 billion in annual revenue by fiscal 2026—up about 30% from 2025 levels. [39]
5.2 Bear Case: Valuation, Competition, and “AI Bubble” Fears
1. Still a Rich Valuation
Even after the November correction, Nvidia’s trailing P/E around 45 and forward multiple in the mid‑20s reflect very high expectations for growth and margins. In a world of rising competition, that leaves little room for disappointment. [40]
2. Hyperscaler In‑House Chips
Alphabet’s push to commercialize TPUs, Amazon’s Trainium chips, and Microsoft’s and Meta’s internal silicon efforts all target the same AI compute budget that Nvidia currently dominates. Analysts warn that if Google and others take material share—say, the 10% of Nvidia revenue mentioned in reports about Google’s TPU ambitions—Nvidia’s growth and pricing power could erode. [41]
3. Export Controls and Geopolitics
U.S. export rules have already forced Nvidia to stop shipping certain high‑end AI chips to China, leading to the multibillion‑dollar H20 charge. Reuters and policy analyses suggest Washington is considering tightening restrictions further, while Chinese authorities are pushing state‑backed data centers toward domestic chips, undermining Nvidia’s China data center opportunity. [42]
4. Hardware Obsolescence and Capex Cycle Risk
A growing number of commentators, including Forbes and TS2’s AI bubble piece, argue that Nvidia faces a risk that AI hardware ages too quickly, forcing hyperscalers to constantly refresh at high cost. If real‑world AI monetization lags behind, some of that infrastructure could become stranded capital, leading to slower orders and pricing pressure on Nvidia. TechStock²+1
5. Customer Concentration and Circular Financing Concerns
TS2 and Reuters‑linked analyses note that:
- Nvidia’s revenue is heavily concentrated in a small set of cloud giants.
- Nvidia increasingly takes equity stakes, long‑term purchase commitments, and other complex arrangementswith AI startups and partners, raising questions about circular demand (where Nvidia money indirectly helps fund orders for Nvidia hardware). TechStock²+1
If those deals unwind or regulators scrutinize them more closely, AI infrastructure spending could cool faster than current forecasts assume.
6. Skeptical “Smart Money” Voices
24/7 Wall St. and other outlets note that prominent investors like Michael Burry have taken short positions or publicly warned that Nvidia may be overvalued relative to its long‑term fundamentals, even while acknowledging the company’s operational excellence. [43]
6. Are We in an AI Bubble — or Just the Early Innings?
A December 1 analysis by TS2 frames Nvidia at the center of the “AI bubble vs. super‑cycle” debate:
- Some business leaders and academics see bubble‑like behavior—frothy valuations, speculative projects—but believe AI is still a general‑purpose technology that will transform the economy over time. TechStock²
- Others, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and AMD’s Lisa Su, describe the current environment as a multi‑decade transition from general‑purpose to accelerated computing rather than a speculative mania. TechStock²+2NVIDIA Newsroom+2
As of December 3, 2025, Nvidia embodies that tension:
- Fundamentals: record revenue, extremely high margins, and a dominant position across AI data center, gaming, and automotive. [44]
- Risks: concentrated customers, heavy reliance on continued AI capex, regulatory overhangs, and rising competition from the very hyperscalers that are currently Nvidia’s biggest clients. TechStock²+2Nasdaq+2
Whether Nvidia ends up looking more like Cisco in 1999 (a bubble icon that struggled after the dot‑com bust) or Microsoft in the early 2000s (expensive but ultimately cheap in hindsight) will only be obvious years from now.
7. What to Watch Next for Nvidia Stock in December 2025
For traders and long‑term investors tracking NVDA over the coming weeks, several signposts stand out:
- Cloud Giants’ 2026 Capex Guidance
Updates from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple on AI‑related capex will heavily influence expectations for Nvidia’s 2026–2027 growth path. TechStock²+1 - Google–Meta TPU Deal Details
Any confirmation (or cancellation) of a large‑scale deal for Google to supply TPUs to Meta—and potentially other cloud customers—will be key to assessing how quickly Nvidia’s competitive moat might narrow. [45] - Progress on the OpenAI Agreement
If Nvidia and OpenAI finalize their proposed $100 billion arrangement, it would significantly reinforce the bullish narrative. If talks stall or are scaled back, that may feed skepticism about the sustainability of today’s AI capex boom. [46] - Further Export‑Control Actions
Additional U.S. measures restricting AI chip exports to China—or new Chinese rules favoring domestic suppliers—could require further product tweaks and reshape Nvidia’s regional revenue mix. [47] - Earnings and Guidance Revisions
Any revision to Nvidia’s ambitious guidance—currently pointing to continued revenue acceleration after Q3’s $57 billion print—will be scrutinized as a referendum on whether AI demand is keeping up with supply. [48]
Bottom Line: Nvidia Stock on December 3, 2025
On December 3, 2025, Nvidia remains the core pure‑play on AI infrastructure, with:
- Extraordinary revenue and profit growth,
- A sprawling and sticky software ecosystem, and
- A Street consensus that still expects 30–40% upside over the next year. [49]
At the same time, the stock is:
- Priced for continued near‑perfection,
- Facing increasingly credible competition from hyperscaler in‑house chips, and
- Operating under a cloud of policy and cyclical risk that could turn quickly if AI spending slows.
For investors, that makes NVDA less of a simple momentum story and more of a high‑stakes question:
Is this the early innings of a durable AI super‑cycle, or the late stages of an AI‑driven valuation bubble?
Whichever camp you fall into, Nvidia is likely to remain front‑page news for markets, technology, and policy well into 2026.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. investor.synopsys.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. coincentral.com, 7. somoshermanos.mx, 8. somoshermanos.mx, 9. investor.synopsys.com, 10. investor.synopsys.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. m.economictimes.com, 14. m.economictimes.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. coincentral.com, 19. coincentral.com, 20. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 21. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 22. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 23. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 24. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 25. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 26. 247wallst.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. 247wallst.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.benzinga.com, 32. www.benzinga.com, 33. www.benzinga.com, 34. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 35. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 36. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 37. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 38. investor.synopsys.com, 39. 247wallst.com, 40. stockanalysis.com, 41. www.nasdaq.com, 42. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 43. 247wallst.com, 44. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 45. www.nasdaq.com, 46. somoshermanos.mx, 47. www.reuters.com, 48. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 49. nvidianews.nvidia.com
