Today: 11 July 2026
Nvidia Stock’s AI Lead Just Got a Harder Test as AMD Surges and Alphabet Closes In

Nvidia Stock’s AI Lead Just Got a Harder Test as AMD Surges and Alphabet Closes In

New York, May 6, 2026, 05:59 ET

  • Nvidia shares have dropped 9% across six sessions since their April 27 record finish, while the main chip index added over 5% in that stretch.
  • AMD’s guidance gave chip stocks a boost and intensified talk about whether AI-driven investment is branching out past Nvidia’s GPUs.
  • Alphabet is closing in on Nvidia’s spot in market value, with investors focused on Google’s cloud business and its custom AI chip developments.

Nvidia shares come under the microscope Wednesday, with an AMD-driven surge across chip stocks underscoring changing AI investment trends. Bloomberg notes Nvidia has shed 9% over six sessions since its April 27 record close, even as the Philadelphia semiconductor index climbed over 5% in that span.

Investors’ appetite for artificial intelligence remains clear. What’s less certain is how tightly that capital will stay linked to Nvidia’s GPUs—the backbone for training big AI models—or whether some of it shifts toward CPUs, the catch-all chips running servers everywhere.

AMD injected new momentum into the discussion late Tuesday, projecting second-quarter revenue that tops Wall Street’s forecasts. The company flagged continued solid demand for its data-center chips, driven by cloud operators expanding their AI infrastructure. Another highlight: AMD cited “inference”—putting trained AI models to work in practical settings—as an emerging demand driver for its server CPUs. Reuters

Stocks snapped higher. AMD surged almost 18% in premarket action Wednesday. Intel tacked on 6%. Nvidia managed a 0.44% gain—modest against the backdrop of sharper rallies from its peers. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.81% ahead of the bell.

According to Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, AMD now has a bigger play than simply taking on Nvidia in GPUs. He described the company’s evolution as a “broader compute opportunity,” pointing to a future where “CPUs and GPUs both playing a role” as AI requirements ramp up. Reuters

AMD now sees the server CPU market expanding at over 35% a year through 2030, a sharp jump from its earlier 18% projection. CEO Lisa Su puts the market’s potential above $120 billion within that window. For Jake Behan, who leads capital markets at Direxion, AMD’s numbers underline that AI demand “is real,” but he’s less certain about how easily that translates to “high-margin revenue.” Reuters

Alphabet is tightening the gap. On Tuesday, Reuters said the Google parent edged close to surpassing Nvidia, trailing by just over $100 billion in market cap—$4.67 trillion to Nvidia’s $4.79 trillion. By Wednesday, fresh numbers had Nvidia at roughly $4.81 trillion, with Alphabet climbing to $4.71 trillion.

Alphabet’s situation isn’t identical to AMD’s, but for Nvidia shareholders, the outcome looks strikingly similar. Google Cloud posted a 63% revenue jump in the first quarter; CEO Sundar Pichai also revealed Google is now directly selling its own AI chips to select customers. Stephanie Link, Hightower Advisors’ chief investment strategist, called it a sign of “hyperscaler capex spend” and said these are “early signs of better monetization” at Alphabet. Reuters

Nvidia leads the pack on the numbers. The company posted fiscal fourth-quarter revenue at $68.1 billion, a 73% jump from the previous year. Data-center revenue hit a record $62.3 billion. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Nvidia is guiding to $78 billion in revenue, give or take 2%. That projection excludes any data-center compute revenue from China, the company said.

There’s a risk AI dollars keep flowing, but end up spread out instead of pooled. AMD isn’t immune—memory chip supply looks tight, and component costs are climbing. Daniel Newman, CEO at Futurum Group, flagged another hurdle: AMD might need “precious additional capacity” if Nvidia keeps pushing its AI roadmap forward. Nvidia’s challenges play out differently. Think: bigger appetite for custom chips from cloud players, CPUs grabbing more attention, and those stubborn restrictions on China sales—all factors that could pressure the hefty premium on Nvidia shares. Reuters

Nvidia’s first-quarter fiscal 2027 results hit on May 20, with a 2 p.m. PT release. Ahead of that, shares aren’t exactly behaving like the lone AI giant anymore—these days, Nvidia’s more of a litmus test for how far the AI trade is spreading.

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the founder and CEO of TS2 Space, a satellite communications company serving customers around the world. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he has more than two decades of experience in telecommunications, satellite services and technology ventures. He writes about satellite communications, space technology, artificial intelligence and the stock market, with a particular focus on technology companies, semiconductors, emerging industries and the trends shaping global innovation.

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